OneSimpleLine

These are personal notes for my timeline and record, not calls to action

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

14th April, Tue, Market closed.

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

MBI : Stocks above EMA 85.9 (52.7, 44.1, 31, 22.7)
Index : Good volume bounce in index, now above 21 below 50. Banknifty and IT both supporting index
Macro : USDINR below EMA21 for last 3 days (good). Have not gone below EMA50 since July 25 (1 exception). DXY below 100 (Good) Gold and Silver facing resistance near EMA (good), Aluminium showing good strength. Crude slide to $97 (good). Gift Nifty indicating weak opening, good if we consolidate here
Summary : Good to re-enter in market with 2-3 trade (Progressive exposure).

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

MBI : Stocks above 20EMA at 13
Index : LH - LL formation, bank and IT both not performing, Gift nifty down 1 %
Macro : currency at ATL, Gold/Silver consolidating, crude near ATH (10K)
Sector : Metals up
Summary : Wait and Watch

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

MBI : Stocks above EMA to shoots up to 44.1 (31, 22.7, 9.5, 13, 21, 12.8, 7.6)
Index : Good bounce but volume still low. Participation of Banknifty is most positive.
Macro : USDINR resting near EMA21 (good). Going towards EMA50 would be nice. DXY consolidating near 100 (Bad for USDINR) Gold and Silver facing resistance near EMA (good), Aluminium showing good strength. Crude above $115 (Ugly). Gift Nifty indicating weak opening.

Summary : Let's see how stock that advanced yesterday, reacts today. Risk reward not favourable yet, Wait and Watch

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

Market Reversal 1 (27 Sep 24)
Bull Market Reversal

Sequence of Event and Key Observation

Phase 1: Euphoria & Political Certainty (1–7 June)

> 1st June 2024 Sat : LS Exit poll announced, NDA projected to get 350+ seats with full majority to BJP
> 3rd Jun 24 Mon : Market rallied 3.25 %
> 4th Jun 24 Tue : Actual result announced, BJP fell short of majority of its own but after market close NDA came out to passed majority mark
> 5th to 7th Jun 24 Wed - Fri : Market recovered 6.3% and closing at historic high

Insight
a) Market priced best-case scenario early
b) 4 June volatility = uncertainty shakeout, not weakness

Phase 2: Strong Trend Continuation (7 Jun – Mid July)

> 7th June to 18thJuly : Smooth run without going below EMA 10 even (1 ½ month)
Insight
a) This is institutional accumulation continuation
b) No bad news reaction = bull phase confirmation

Phase 3: Hidden Shift (Budget = Turning Point)

> 23rd Jul 24 : Union Budget (STCG increased from 15 % to 20 %, LTCG increase by 10% to 12.5% and STT on F&O). Market didn’t panic. Good recovery from day low. Next two days were in mild red.
> Budget announcement set the foundation of market reversal
Insight
a) Market not falling on bad news ≠ bullish
b) It often means: Distribution has already started

Phase 4: Distribution Phase (Aug – Sep)

> 2nd and 5thAug: Market fell 3.85% due to a) US recession fear b) Uncertainty phase kicked in Aug 24 for US Presidential election on 5th Nov
Insight - External trigger used as narrative while internal distribution already ongoing
> 29 Aug 24 (1st sign) Nifty registered vol of 354m but index just moved 0.4%. Next day was more apparent.
> 30 Aug 24 (High volume (638m) + no price progress → Major distribution)
Nifty volumes hit 638m on 30th Aug (Highest vol since Mar 24, excluding 4th June 24 election day volatility) but index just moved 0.33%
> 19th Sep 24 (Intraday gains sold → Supply overpowering demand), 2nd clear distribution sign appears.
Nifty vol hit 314m, index lost all gain of the day by the time of close
> 24th Sep 24 (Very high volume + zero movement → Absorption peak)
Nifty vol 384m, index move just 0.01%
> 27th Sep 24 (Repeated high-volume stall → Final distribution)
Nifty vol 490m, index move just 0.14%
> 30th Sep to 7th Oct : Market down 5.4%, trend reversed, Nifty didn't came above EMA20 till 25th Nov
> Downtrend lasted for 7.5 months (1 st Oct 24 to 15 Apr 25)
Key Observations: After union budget, market had 3 legs of up move before trend reversal

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

KL 2 : Markets reverse not when news changes—but when participants are exhausted.

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

Key Learnings 1 : Once earnings are announced, the information gap is closed. The market shifts from “What will happen?” → “What next?”. Price actions capture expectations vs actuals, future guidance and positioning (who is trapped / who is loaded).

Immediately momentum, traps, sentiment dominate.

In 1- 2 weeks, analysts revise estimates, conference call insights get digested and institutions adjust positions.

Thereafter, there is post-earnings drift phase - Price reflects forward expectations, not past results.

Trader acts basis price action.

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

3) Revenue Mix
· · Piping Division: ~90.4%
· · Power Division: ~6–7% (approx.)
· · Heavy Fabrication: ~3–4% (approx.)
DEEDEV is currently behaving like a pure-play piping company (~90% exposure)
This means:
Higher operating leverage
More sensitivity to oil & gas / process capex cycle
4) Geographical Revenue Mix (H1 FY26 / latest)
India: 62.3% (Was 72.5% in FY25)
Outside India: 37.7%
Order Book Geography Mix (Latest – FY26)
India: ~55–58%
International (Exports): ~42–45%
Export share still rising
5) Concall Summary - Feb 2026
a) CAPEX build-out nearing end; execution intensity up
b) core business margin expected at “18% to 20%”
c) Every year we shall be paying almost around ₹40 crore towards repayment of the debt
6) Order Book

~₹1,300 crore (as of 31 Dec’25)
Order win 754 cr (Feb 26)
Order win 193 cr (Mar 26)
Unexpected order is around 1900 cr as of Mar 26 end. TTM revenue of 1067 crore

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

DEE Development Engineers Ltd
DEE is a leading engineering company specializing in process piping solutions.
It is India’s largest player in this segment by installed capacity and among the global leaders in technical capability
DEE operates 10 manufacturing units across India and Thailand
2) Capacity :
📍 India Facilities
Palwal Facility I – 9,000 MTPA
Palwal Facility II – 3,000 MTPA
Palwal Facility III – 24,000 MTPA
Barmer Facility – 5,000 MTPA
Numaligarh Facility – 6,000 MTPA
📍 Anjar Cluster (Key Change Area)
Anjar Facility I – 3,000 MTPA
New Anjar Facility I – 3,000 MTPA
New Anjar Facility II – ~24,000 MTPA (commissioned Sep 2025)
Anjar Heavy Fabrication – 36,000 MTPA
🌏 International
Bangkok Facility – 14,500 MTPA
📊 Total Installed Capacity (Dec 2025)
Total Installed Capacity ≈ 1,27,500 MTPA

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

Exit, uncertainty...

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

Entered Waaree Energies @ 2972, SL 4 %. Confluence of 3 key EMA.

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

The U.S. government has set preliminary import duties of about 126 % on solar products from India..Let's see

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

@ratdraze Expecting excellent Q4, FII/DII accumulation, new vertical entry. Show good buying in 5min TF

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

Long in Shriram Finance @ 975

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

@thechartist26 Sir, found same news related to it.

[OneSimpleLine @OneSimpleLine]

@thechartist26 Just 5 % away from 52wH, Gap up of 12 Dec sustaining, nice pivot formation, good accumulation. Don't know or care beyond this. Have my alert set in.