Make Communists Fly Again

As God as my witness, I thought commies could fly

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@T_Motes @nick_matau Point 11 refers to making all frozen assets available and agreeing on procedures related to release of the funds.

It sounds like "let's make sure you have the money if we perform" and the procedures related to release sounds like sequencing ie. What they get and for what

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@nick_matau Where's the text that states that?

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@angertab This isn't the right framing. The MOU isn't the final deal. Its showing that you have the money to make the final deal happen should Iran behave normally (highly unlikely).

Only thing that is given upfront is ability to sell oil as a carrot. (Would also be in USD)

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@GBNT1952 How do you feel about this take?

https://t.co/xEd8eq6hH3

[James Lindsay, anti-Communist @ConceptualJames]

My logic here all starts with his seemingly rogue comment about Iran keeping rockets and missiles, which has freaked out many, particularly Israelis and their supporters.

I'm betting the Gulf States are really uncomfortable, like Israel is, with that statement. They're not stupid. They're also targets, like Israel is. Less, but a lot, and the IRGC are crazy bastards. Makes me think Trump made it for them.

The thing is, they didn't do their parts and aren't yet. And Trump's definitely pissed at them because they straight up didn't help during the war (so far…). They wouldn't even let us use their airspace and tried to close down our own military bases. Trump didn't like that and didn't forget. No way.

So Trump letting them feel some legitimate heat that can be resolved by accomplishing his primary goals makes a lot of basic sense.

If we remember Trump's goals and work backwards, it's actually a little easier to see how this makes sense, even the MOU with it's big carrot/big stick arrangement that basically nobody believes will stick (thus terrifying Israel but, I'll bet, also those Gulf States). So what are Trump's goals?

1) Expand Abraham Accords;
2) KSA allying formally with Israel, which was happening until October 7 disrupted it, thus restoring a pre-10/7 peace agenda;
3) Increase their overall security dependency on US and Israel, thus shifting some of their "hand" in the region to us;
4) Standard Trumpism 101: Make them active participants in their own security arrangements, just like what he's doing with the EU and Pacific countries (no more America carrying all the weight).

The MOU itself creates conditions by which Iran becomes agentic in this. If they behave (they won't), they get rewarded, which they actually want, bigly. If they misuse that (everyone expects they will), they get a well-deserved stick. Everyone in the region feels this fear and is vigilant about it. If they misbehave (they will), they bring hellfire on themselves. This breaks the strangest force in the known universe: responsibility never sticks to a Muslim who behaved badly, never.

It's very high-risk, but this is a very high-stakes game, one of the highest in decades. The fears people have are real and justified, but Trump's got them priced in, I think. He knows he holds cards (B-2s, specifically) that let him adjust later if things don't work right, and by the number of times he's said so in the last 36 hours, I think he's well aware he'll be playing those cards at least sometimes. Tough shit for Iran.

I think we need to stop freaking out and let this develop. We need to see how it cooks and how the chef does with it.

Plus, I think he just hosed JD, and that's alright too.

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@Ibebbee @GoKamalaH2024 @SuitablePolitic Number 8 mentions it directly lol

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@TwitCensors @GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic Number 8 says exactly that lol

We can argue about sequencing and what happens if Iran doesnt fulfil their obligations but this game of assuming Iran get everything that's possible within the MOU without also fulfilling everything on their end is not in good faith at all

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA.

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic "The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven"

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@IToldUMonsoon @GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic Make available does not mean handing over in my mind.

It more means "do you have the ability to follow through if I do this for you"

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic Iran is also obligated to release their nuclear dust in the final deal.

All of these what if scenarios are based on if everyone lives up to their sides of the deal.

Question is what happens if they dont.

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic Yeah showing that you have the ability to unfreeze them to distribute and agreeing on how it's to be released.

I think the difference is that some people hear that sentence and they think cash or card. I hear sequencing.

Once you do this you get this, do this get that.

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic What's the exact text that says that?

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@IToldUMonsoon @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic Which part am I reading incorrectly? Is there a specific wording or word choice I glossed over?

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@GoKamalaH2024 @Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic My reading of 13 is that is says "subject to the beginning of the implementation of" said paragraphs

I'd assume the beginning of 11 is to agree on procedures related to release of the funds during negotiations.

Sounds more like "did you bring the money"

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@Ibebbee @SuitablePolitic You're gettng caught in the word game.

All of those things say something to the tune of upon completion of final deal.

Means the only thing they get upfront is waivers to sell oil for 60 days while negotiating.

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@davereaboi Have you maybe considered you're both retarded for sperging out over Arab propaganda? Tucker over Gaza and now you over this "deal"

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@petespiliakos If you're too dumb that you're not able to parse what is given upfront vs what is contingent on the final deal you probably shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@davereaboi If you're dumb enough to take at face value the chest pounding and claims of victory from the same country who claims they sunk half of the US Navy I don't know what to tell you...

[Make Communists Fly Again @OneWayAirways]

@varadmehta 50/50 1 or 2.

Neither of which justify the hair on fire takes by everyone lately .