Oni Research

Stanford MBA, Cambridge Masters in RE Fin, UPenn BA.

Former Distressed Investment Analyst turned Long-Biased Stock Picker.

Not financial advice. Often wrong.

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

August Portfolio Review
YTD: +24.76%
From inception: +246%

NFA

In August, took profits on $NBIS at $275/share to rebalance the portfolio. Also took profits on $025560 at 110% off; will reinvest before next earnings. Growth stories still working out: $NURS.V positive but soft q

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

Exited $VTSI: CEO's narrative on procurement bottleneck doesn't match the numbers. Not asymmetric enough.

Excited $LIB.V: Made >50% profit over the year but warrant stack became problematic; more dilution is on the way with warrant price ceiling. Love the story. Watchlist.

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

@ValaisValue I’ve seen several hundred debt capital terms sheets in my career, and very few have been this expensive. Looks more like venture debt being window dressed as project finance

Again, love the story but cost of capital (12.25% + warrants + minimum return projection) gives me pause

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

@roncohen0547 Fully concur close to 2x from here with modest growth within a year. Bleeding stopped. Lots of optionality on growth.

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

@quantsisco Love the thesis but every raise, debt and equity is so expensive. 12.25% + further dilutive warrants is painful. The warrant stack is getting a little 👻

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

@Gantosj Alternate take: 12.25% interest + warrants is some of the most expensive debt there is out there. On a cost of capital basis, they'd have been better off raising equity.

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

Not sure why they still communicate on Discord. But we are where we are. Get a proper CFO!

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

$NURS.V $HYDTF

"WEBINAR COMING!!!"

From the Discord, "setting up a dedicated investor webinar for next week where Shane can go deeper into some of the areas that investors have asked up to better explain..."

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

@rk8215 Also, the $6m of additional orders announced on July 29th. Am I missing something here? That is more than all of Q2 already announced in Q3.

Bullish!!!

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

@DeepSailCapital Great walk-through!

I'm a holder but a couple of Qs:

1. QonQ, why did onboarding/revenues go from 66% growth to 12%? That's a significant deterioration in onboarding cadence. No explanation from management

2. Why can't management communicate this directly themselves on calls?

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

Excellent points!

[Deep Sail Capital @DeepSailCapital]

As I have gotten several questions about $NURS.v full year guidance today, and many don’t understand the revenue onboarding or the guidance, so I thought I would try to break down how it works.

1/ NURS.v guided $150M FY26 revenue. Q2 just grew 12.5% QoQ to $28m. Simply running the math says H2 revenue needs to nearly double from H1’s pace. But that’s not what’s actually happening, it’s about the onboarding timing of licensees not business growth.

2/ Important distinction is that this is not business growth. It’s onboarding. Hydreight is migrating existing scripts volume that already exists today, off-platform, onto their compliant rails. The “growth” you see in reported revenue is a switch flipping, not new demand being created. These are existing scripts from their clients, not new scripts.

3/ Per management: they’re working through a backlog of 12,000 licenses with partners who are already generating scripts independently and are contractually lined up to transition onto VSDHOne. That backlog is expected to take ~12-18 months to fully onboard per discussions I have had with various management and analysts on the subject. Meaning this is not business growth this is simply taking all the licensees and all their current scripts and saying, when X customer comes live on the platform we need to be able to supply X,Y, and Z compounds to them. There is also a lot of client side restrictions, timing, approvals preventing faster onboarding.

4/ Why does that matter for modeling? Because it means the revenue ramp is a queue being worked through, not a sales funnel being built from scratch. Hydreight already knows the run-rate sitting in that backlog before a single new license goes live. NURS also know the go live date of each partner. So they know X customer goes lives on Sept 1 with X amount of scripts. So forecasting their revenue is actually pretty straightforward if you have that information. Knowing Q2 revenue growth has very little impact on next quarters revenue.

5/ It also means expect this to be lumpy, not linear. Onboarding depends on each partner’s pharmacy-review and compliance readiness not a smooth monthly cohort. Some quarters will look like a step function, others may look flat. 12.5% QoQ in Q2 tells you almost nothing about Q3 or Q4 in isolation.

6/ Why the urgency to switch at all? FDA has reprimanded 200+ non-compliant compounding pharmacies recently. Partners are moving to Hydreight’s 50-state compliant infrastructure defensively as a compliance migration

7/ The 12,000-license backlog is the floor. It’s pre-existing volume moving onto the platform. Any actual growth like new script volume, new product lines (peptides), new partner acquisition beyond the current backlog is additive on top of that base, not baked into it.

8/ So the $150M guide should be read as: “here’s what we get just from finishing the migration we’ve already contracted.” It is explicitly not a bet on Hydreight growing the underlying market. That’s a separate, uncertain lever layered on top.

9/ Bear case: ~12-18 months to clear 12,000 licenses is a forecast, it can slip, and management knows it likely will in certain cases. Gross margin on pharmacy sales has already compressed (19.4% → ~14% in Q2) from GLP-1 pricing wars, so even a fully-executed backlog could convert at lower profitability than modeled. And there’s no public backlog disclosure, outside of the $150m guidance it’s hard to tell exactly where the 12,000 licensees script volume sits.

10/ Bottom line: don’t grade NURS.v on QoQ revenue growth over the next 12 months. Grade it on onboarding cadence against the 12,000-license backlog. Real growth from peptides, client volumes scaling, or nurse network is all upside.

11/ Back to the guidance, what this means is they likely have some very big clients coming live on the platform in Q3/Q4 that will get them to $150m guidance.

I hope this helps those understand what’s going on with the revenue onboarding at NURS.v.

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

Overall, happy with the report, but not thrilled.

The 503A shift was the biggest positive for me.

I also loved that they finally did a Q&A. Management still needs to be more transparent and provide more granular revenue data.

Long wait to Q3 - miss the days of monthly updates

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

My differentiated view on $NURS.V $HYDTF earnings:

The biggest takeaway for me was management confirming the shift toward 503A compounding and away from 503B for GLP-1s and GLP-2s.

This is a big deal. Not financial advice. Do your own DD.🧵

[Oni Research @OniResearchLLC]

My biggest concern now is pharmacy gross margin.

It fell to 14%.

If that continues, the story changes.

The question becomes whether NURS can actually capture enough value from the pharmacy side of the business as revenue scales.