Opal Chip

Retired head trader San Fran stat-arb hedge fund. Here to exchange ideas & have fun. My Tweets are general opinions, not investment advice. Header:

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$UNCY added $6.88. It looks like they've been hitting the Guggenheim atm. That's somewhat rational from management perspective, but I'm guessing they taper off soon with PDUFA coming. I'm thinking it should be a relatively nice ride into last week of June from here, given this was a "manufacturing issue" CRL + consensus analyst target many multiples of current price.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

Sorry I didn't see your message until now... Been busy with family stuff and not checking in much. Yes, it looks fine to me. Can't realistically expect much better... I'm likely holding through the early q4 top line data. If that data holds up, there's no reason to believe the trends won't continue indefinitely, with the untreated group weight regain continuing, while the Revita group maintains well.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$GUTS all looks good but I did sell 25% of my position today, purely for risk control. I now own a still-beefy amount at about a $0.15 basis, and will keep that through FDA catalysts / approval.
For those who are technical traders - yes, there is some resistance to be expected between $0.90-$1. But on approval, which IMHO is about a 75% probability - we should be seeing $3-$5+ (depending on type & amount of dilution before then).

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$UNCY Yeehaw! Just saw I filled a GTC $7.07 (an obvious technical support level). No news, but I see online speculation of a leak, etc. All I can say is, I've been trading bios for 10 years now, and these types of bear raids ahead of catalysts are RARELY predictive of anything. It's just too dangerous for any insider to do this (and if they do, they don't make it so obvious). It's happened, but I've done way better fading these events than not.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

Bought back today. Got out around .23 on Monday news, but reconsidered at .20 today after looking into it. Not that bad a financing, though they could have done better by betting the wait to FDA June. If you want to cxl debt, you got to give somehow upEven with the dilution, if I'm correct about a quick path with FDA, this is still kind of cheap - just not AS cheap. Small position.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$GOSS bought starter around .33 avg. I'm on road at moment, so can't write much. But I think a case where FDA common sense can overrule strict adherence to obviously skewed data. I'm thinking on June, FDA creates a reasonable path forward for them. If so, cash on hand is OK. See article re: here -
https://t.co/fSIxMcTVp0?

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

Well this one didn't work out well! Luckily, I hadn't any positive trading action at all, so never added any. Still... 🤮. I was on the road all day, so didn't overthink it and took the loss. I can't imagine why they make a move like this before FDA meeting, if they were really confident in the outcome.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

@WalterScottFund No - unfortunately not... I was pondering it just before the big move, but didn't pull the trigger. I traded in / out of CAPR for years and for some reason never got in sync well with it.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$CAPR - Sold all this a.m. $4.43 avg. which happened to be exactly my breakeven level. Unnecessary (for now) offering concurrent with news apparent FDA disinterest in Accelerated Approval is mind-boggling. Probably still a fine long term investment - but I was in for a 6 month or so timeline and I'm not doing long term, with high interest rates and a recession looming.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

@VIPSheffTrades I think this one gets positive news from FDA, and gets either approval as-is (despite trial having technically been a fail) or at least a simple pathway. This is a case where commons sense should override some obviously skewed statistics.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$GUTS added a few .44, full 4% position now. Might go up to 6% max if we see insider buying eventually.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

And btw - This is not about politics - I don't believe in bringing that into Bio-Twitter. (If it was politics, I wouldn't have remained an X-Pro subscriber since the beginning).
It's a vote about niceness.
I won't support any business that treats customers like dirt - beyond the absolute minimum that I need to. If turns out this was an X technical glitch (and I believe it) then I'll re-subscribe.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

Where'd my Blue Verification Checkmark go???
X Pro (the old Tweetdeck) suddenly tiered up to Premium+ at $40/ month. There ARE other places to discuss biotechs in single thread formats... So I just downgraded. I don't care about the blue check nor feel like "donating" $400/year to U-Know-Who. Down to Basic as my "vote" on this. If enough people do the same, maybe X gets the message?

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

Yes - it's the way it's been done. A month's notice would have been nice - 60 days even better - but instantly cutting off a service right in the middle of a billing cycle... Screw that. The $480 doesn't matter to me, but I'm sure it does to many X users. It's U-Know-Hoo's business and he has the right to do whatever he wants with it, and I support that right - but I will also minimize my support for anyone who treats people like this.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$ALZN - No position. I'll be interested in q4. I see some confusion re: why down on "positive data"... The issue is stated near the bottom of today's pr. There won't be a measure of Stat Significance until 3 more small phase2's. So I'll be very interested later on. See Pic.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

@17catspaw As bags go... this isn't that bad a one to be holding!

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$GUTS Management is "increasingly confident" that pivotal data will be a win - and so am I.
If so, Addressable Market will be enormous compared to $GUTS current market cap. The only thing to maybe whine about today is ablation length : weight maintenance correlation pVal was only .048. Made it to stat signif, but just barely. However in clinical trials, .051 can be a fail while .049 is a win... Often stupid, but that's how it is. Offsetting positives - the weight regain diff (and P) likely improve further past 6 months AND/OR with larger number of subjects.

I'm feeling like 65% success/35% fail for pivotal data in early 4Q. If anywhere near that, risk/reward on the trade is WILDLY favorable.
Since I'm assuming holding into that data, I don't care much where price goes today/tomorrow, but FYI - There were OBVIOUS shorts or market-makers pressuring $GUTS today - looking like they're trying to keep it marked down, or at least exit at VWAP. Really seen in the low Vol pre-market dump, and then same again in post-market.

The main thing I want to see soon, that hasn't shown up yet at ALL, is insider buying. If they aren't investing their own $$ after today's PR at such low valuation, then there might be less here than meets the eye. But I'll give that into early 3Q to see...

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

@Retired30 Just saw this... Will reply tonight.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$GUTS added a few yesterday & today .435 avg. Seems to have stabilized, though today's support may just be spillover from the wild $QNCX move.
btw - because I have limited time for trading lately, I'm simplifying my sizing with either a Full position at 8% of account, or a Half position at 4%). If I'm not comfortable being in with 5%, then I just skip the trade. This forces me to have enough size to matter on my conviction trades. It worked well last year... I got an email that I was in the top 10% at Tradestation for 2025. Which means they either need better traders, or maybe they just tell everyone that🤪😛!
$GUTS, being quite speculative, is a 5% trade. I have room to buy one more tranche lower, then it will be wait and see.

[Opal Chip @Opal_Chip]

$GUTS added today around 0.46 to fill out position, done adding unless there are some fundamental changes.