Open Interest

What moved markets and by how much. Stocks, crypto, macro, odds.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Enphase guides Q4 revenue to $225M-$255M vs ~$300M expected

Q3 revenue $293.3M vs ~$304M est, adj EPS $0.41 vs $0.51
US sell-through -35% y/y

$ENPH -15.8% after hours to $25.07

The Q4 guide includes $51.2M of safe harbor revenue. Strip that out and the midpoint is ~$189M of core sales. The pitch is AI data center power; the numbers are still US rooftop solar without the 25D credit.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Seagate guides Dec quarter revenue to $4.8B, plus or minus $100M, vs $4.55B expected

Q1 revenue $4.23B vs about $4.14B expected. Adj EPS $7.68 vs about $7.40.

$STX -8.0% after hours to $614

Beat and a raise, still red. The stock was already down about 30% in a month, so the bar sat above the Street number.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

SoFi lifts 2026 revenue guide to $5.04B, from $4.75B-$4.85B

Q3 revenue $1.39B, +44% y/y. Net income $241M, +73%. Street was at $4.87B for the year.

$SOFI +13.45% to $16.41

The new guide sits $190M above the old top end with one quarter left, and $170M over consensus. That's too big to be rounding. Analysts are rewriting Q4, not tweaking it.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Two water stocks, same Tuesday, opposite verdicts

Pentair now sees 2026 sales down about 3%, better than its earlier 4% to 7% decline. Xylem cut adjusted EPS guidance to $5.40-$5.45 from $5.55-$5.70.

$PNR +11.63% to $61.64
$XYL −13.02% to $94.15

Same theme, opposite days. Investors are pricing each company's guidance, not the water label.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Trump says 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are landing in Corpus Christi, and gasoline and diesel "will soon come plummeting down"

The US uses about 20 million barrels a day. That cargo covers roughly 70 minutes of demand.

RBOB gasoline: -2.00% to $3.0694/gal
ULSD diesel: -2.23% to $4.6296/gal
WTI: -1.93% to $99.80

Futures were already sliding on Iran talks and barely noticed the post. Per AAA, gas has averaged $3.472 this term vs $3.471 under Biden.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

GM is leaving the NYSE for Nasdaq.

The switch happens Nov 17, ticker stays GM. Per GM, the move makes it eligible for the Nasdaq-100.

$GM +5.32% to $80.37

GM first listed on the Big Board in 1911. A stock rallying on a change of address is a bet on index-fund buying, not on more trucks.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

@KobeissiLetter Day two: Ibovespa +0.08% to 176,758, back about 150 of the 28,474 points it lost Monday.

The real clawed back 1%. Stocks are still waiting for a reason.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Oracle will rent out Google's TPUs, a first for Google chips on a rival cloud

Cerebras and OpenAI's Jalapeño chips are coming too

$ORCL +4.91% to $132.25
$GOOGL +1.71%

Oracle wants to rent out every AI chip. Paying for $90B+ of capex is still the question

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

UPS raises its 2026 outlook again, now sees ~$92.6B revenue vs $91.2B before

Q3 adj EPS $1.69 vs $1.63 est, revenue $22.9B vs $22.29B
US revenue per piece +6.1% while it ships fewer Amazon boxes

$UPS +2.6% to $102.90

The parcel bellwether isn't saying the economy is shipping more. It's saying UPS got paid more per box. FedEx reports Wednesday on the same playbook.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

@FirstSquawk Record $745B backlog, stock down 10%.

Selling 737s was never the problem. Building 47 a month is.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Boeing Q3: record $745B backlog, but the 737 goal of 47 jets a month slips to early 2027

Adj loss $0.34/sh vs $0.21 est. Commercial Airplanes lost $697M on $10.7B revenue. Free cash flow $464M, a beat.

$BA -8.33% to $172.62

A record order book doesn't help much when the bottleneck is building the planes. Services and defense made money this quarter; the jetliner side is still paying for every delay.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Whirlpool cuts 2026 guidance a third time, now sees a $1.30/sh loss

Q3 ongoing EPS -$0.21, sales -8.8% to $3.68B

$WHR -0.38% to $26.35

North America profit -45%, and the fix is a 7% Q4 price hike. Betting the housing freeze thaws before demand does.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Houthis say they hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery and export hub. Oil shrugs.

Aramco contained a fire there overnight, per Bloomberg. Damage unclear.

Brent -0.72% to $109.94
WTI -0.81% to $100.94

Second Houthi claim on Saudi oil in two days, second down day for crude. Traders are pricing the envoys in Tehran, not the missiles.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

JetBlue says Q4 margins go up 1 to 2 points, with jet fuel seen 85% above last year

Q3 adj. loss $0.60/sh vs $0.55 est, revenue $2.81B, a slight miss
Q4 unit revenue guide: +18% to +22% y/y

$JBLU +13.5% premarket to $2.69
Monday: record intraday low of $2.16

When fares outrun $100 crude, the problem was never fuel. It was too many seats. Yesterday the stock was priced like a distress case.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

@DeItaone Timing is everything. Dutch TTF gas settled at €96.68/MWh yesterday, highest since Dec 2022 and up from €72 at the end of September.

Easiest sales pitch Moscow has had in years.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Celestica rips premarket on a beat-and-raise

Q3 revenue $5.83B (+83%) vs $5.48B est
2027 guide: $40B vs $35.7B consensus

$CLS +15.7% premarket to $285.36

AI infra's ugliest month in a while, and the rack builder says 2028 customer forecasts are "meaningfully higher."

Catch: FCF guide cut to $460M from $600M.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Korea's Q3 GDP just tripled the central bank's forecast

GDP +1.0% q/q vs the BOK's 0.3% August forecast. Chips drove about half the growth, and real gross domestic income rose 18.8% y/y, the fastest since 1977.

Kospi +3.09% to 5,638 (was +4.9% intraday)
SK Hynix +5.18%
Samsung Electronics +4.23%
Foreigners net bought 593B won

One day after Goldman cut its Kospi target 25%, Korea printed its fastest income growth in 49 years. Stocks are still priced for a memory bust. The GDP data hasn't seen one yet.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

Monday close: the Brazil election trade got unwound in one session

EWZ fell 19.8% to $34.14 after Lula's win, while US chips rallied right past it.

$EWZ -19.8%
$NVDA +2.4%
$SOXX +2.9%
$META -1.9%
Brent -5.9% to $110.42
S&P 500 +0.7%

Same day, two markets: Wall Street kept paying up for AI, and Brazil repriced 13 straight polls being wrong.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

AstraZeneca's Sone-Ve cuts risk of death 42% in Phase III gastric cancer trial

Median survival 10.6 vs 6.4 months in 2nd-line+ CLDN18.2-positive patients (CLARITY-Gastric01).

$AZN -0.15% to $171.23

Shrugged off: the topline landed in July, so today was a conference, not a catalyst.

[Open Interest @OpenInteresting]

AI default insurance volume has more than quadrupled since July

$9B+ a week of CDS traded on 7 AI-linked names in September vs under $2B in July, per Morgan Stanley via FT

Meta 5Y CDS: 108bp, record
Nvidia 5Y CDS: 101bp, record
$NVDA: +2.6% today
$SOXX: +3.8% today

Stocks are buying the AI story. Credit is buying insurance on it.