$BABA #BABA
I just ran the numbers, and this is the most oversold the 20 period RSI (essentially a one month look back) has ever been in the history of the stock. The only other 3 times the RSI came close to being this oversold was in August 2021, December 2021, and March 2021.
These are the two-day returns after the RSI bottomed:
August 2021: 10.25% in 2 days
December 2021: 15.62% in 2 days
March 2022: 37.75% in 1 day
This is not a setup I focus on much
BUT
$MSFT is setting up for an overextension reversal in the coming sessions
That doesn't mean its going to start a new uptrend.. but we should at least see a snapback into the EMA's shortly
When stocks get deviated from the mean... a snapback into the moving averages can occur
Late shorts getting trapped
Early longs throwing in the towel
Perfect setup for an aggressive tradeable bounce
The spot to watch is the march lows
Undercut and reclaim of that level sets up for a rubber band move.
$SPY closed at $734 today. Looks calm.
The data underneath it doesn't.
Dealer positioning has $740 as a hard ceiling $333M of GEX sitting right there.
Every rally into that level gets sold by dealer hedging.
Below spot, $730 is -$414M. Negative gamma means dealers chase moves lower, not fade them.
The charm anchor is pinning at $730 with -$19.99B net CEX.
Global liquidity flipped to HEDGE regime today.
Weekly delta -1.231. Decreasing liquidity daily.
The macro backdrop is not improving.
The wedge on the daily is compressing.
$728 is the first real support.
$710 below that.
Until $750 is reclaimed, the path of least resistance stays down.
A lot of stocks are not joining the party.
The S&P 500 version of this signal flashed days ago. Now the NYSE version just triggered too.
When this happens within 21 days of a 252-day high, the S&P 500 was higher one month later only 16% of the time. Average return was a loss of 2.8%.
The last signal was February 2, 2026. The S&P 500 lost more than 7% over the following two months.
Read full analysis: https://t.co/TSJ9dMDt60
I have been doing pretty well in catching regime shifts within the market $SPY
I wish I had better news.
We're still in the ugly window here's everything the data is showing right now🧵