@KobeissiLetter Credit markets flashing caution. CDS doesn’t spike like that in a healthy leverage cycle. Not bearish on AI demand — just bearish on the over-levered players.
I just dropped the Sunday newsletter covering some major stories, check your inbox, spam, or any other folders. If you don’t see it, you can read it online here:
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@KobeissiLetter It starts to matter when debt growth outpaces economic growth, if interest costs begin crowding out spending on defense, healthcare, and infrastructure. At $1–1.5T added annually that tipping point may come sooner than most expect.
While President Trump’s intention may be to boost the economy by imposing tariffs on foreign countries, the reality is that American consumers ultimately bear the burden of these added costs. Companies rarely absorb these expenses—they pass them along to customers. We saw a clear example of this during COVID, when increased labor costs were transferred directly to consumers. While tariffs might give American companies a competitive edge, it doesn’t change the fact that it’s the American public who ends up paying more.
@KobeissiLetter While domestic producers like $X could gain from the tariffs, overall competitiveness and economic growth may suffer. Is now the right time to invest in $X?
The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility hitting its lowest inventory in nearly four years suggests a major shift in liquidity dynamics. This could indicate that money market funds and financial institutions are finding better yields elsewhere, potentially in Treasury securities or higher-risk assets. It may also signal tightening financial conditions or reduced demand for the Fed’s overnight facility as excess cash in the system dries up.
Possible scenarios include:
1.Rising Treasury Yields
https://t.co/Zt0qW7TCqw Volatility
https://t.co/0CxJc1dsaq Tightening
4.Potential Fed Policy Shift
@WOLF_Financial Coca-Cola’s stock price has fallen from $72 to $62 over the past three months. While I enjoy investing in stocks and options, it’s hard to deny that real estate offers a more stable and less risky investment.
You raised a crucial point about the conundrum the US government faces with interest rates and its mounting debt. It's concerning to see the significant increase in debt service costs due to rising rates, especially with such staggering amounts of debt set to mature. The question of who bears the burden of these interest expenses is indeed pressing. It underscores the need for prudent fiscal policies that balance economic growth with debt management effectively. Thank you for shedding light on this critical issue.
@FLOWrensics_ You all are incredible! As a member of the Discord community, I’ve gained tremendous knowledge from you over the past couple of years. Your efforts are truly appreciated. For those who might be hesitant to join, just one call can cover an entire year of membership. 🌟🙌
I believe the debt issue is deeply intertwined with political considerations. Neither party seems genuinely concerned about the well-being of future generations. Instead, both parties engage in excessive spending to gain favor and secure votes. What we truly need are authentic leaders who prioritize the long-term interests of our nation and its citizens over short-term political gains.
I believe the answer is an increase in unemployment, leading to a surge in foreclosures and diminished affordability. The supply of pre-owned homes is likely to remain scarce for an extended period. Consequently, many prospective homeowners may find themselves considering newly constructed houses as an alternative.