Watching the top sages, savants & seers of X, retweeting the most insightful posts and predictions that come true. Send me best predictions, so I can repost.
Dan the Man says we are more 97/98 in the dotcom analogy, semis selloff could last several days as an overbought retreat vs. the top, and still likes Intel, AMD, Nvdia and calling out analog chips (power semis?)...
As I discussed on this CNBC interview earlier today with @KellyCNBC@SullyCNBC semiconductor investors should be thrilled today.
This is what I posted on X on Sunday night “Over the near-term, the overall market at some point will need to take a breather from increasingly overbought technical conditions. After nine straight weekly gains, the S&P is now up 19% from its recent closing low on March 30th. But I feel like any losses will be contained to the typical ~5% pullback which is typically seen three to four times per year.”
But then the $SOXX (semiconductor index) gained 8.5% in just the first three days of this week!
Coming into today, I was concerned over the increasing near-term bubble like behavior in the which the SOXX was up a staggering 95% from the market closing lows on March 30th through yesterday June 3rd which drove a 19% rally in the S&P.
Other signs of near-term AI/Semiconductor froth included:
1. $MU +19% in a day off of an analyst upgrade
2. $DELL +33% in a day in reaction to earnings
3. $HPE +19% in a day in reaction to earnings
4. $MRVL +33% in a day in reaction to comments at Computex
I thought the big decline in the pre-market by the stock of $AVGO due to just reiterating their AI guidance would hit the SOXX which in turn would hit the S&P.
Instead, $AVGO declined “just” 12.6%, the SOXX lost only 2.2% and the S&P gained 0.4%. Oil declining 3% today certainly helped along with bond yields heading lower. Nevertheless, semiconductor bulls should be thrilled at the resiliency of a sector that looked ripe to get crushed from technically extended levels when one of the bell weathers got hit.
While I believe this sell-off in semis could continue for several days given the exuberance coming in, I think this will be a short-term move in the SOXX to work off overbought conditions vs “the top.”
Names I like on a dip include:
1) $INTC & $AMD (1 GPU per 1 CPU w/ Agentic vs 8 to 1 prior)
2) $NVDA 25x CY26 PE for 80% rev growth
3) Analog semiconductors given power requirements of next gen GPUs
To reiterate prior posts, the reason why I am still bullish through early next year is Agentic AI. This arguably kicked off with the formalization of OpenClaw on January 30th and requires 10-100x more token production versus chat-based AI.
My biggest concern remains oil prices and their impact on inflation, bond yields, economic growth and the Fed. Given mid-term elections coming up in early November, I believe President Trump wants to extricate himself from this war as soon as he can.
In my opinion, oil needs to get back down into that ~$80 range versus the mid-$60 level prior to the war. Historically, when oil has spiked and has stayed there for around two quarters, the odds increase dramatically for a recession. Investors forget that oil prices more than doubled in 1999.
In summary, I remain bullish over the long-term given 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. Time as always will tell.
I make it a point to listen to Dan Niles, but missed this prescient post. " $INTC and $AMD should benefit" is the understatement of the year? Intel more than tripled and AMD more than doubled just in the weeks since this post.
Those who listen will become MILLIONAIRES.
Once the AI hardware rotation slows down…
power will still need to grow exponentially.
Here’s the AI Power Super cycle that RETIRES you:
1. Layer 1 Fuel & Natural Gas Supply
(the energy feeding the AI boom)
• $EQT - largest U.S. natural gas producer
• $KMI - gas pipelines + infrastructure
• $WMB - natural gas transport + LNG
• $ET - massive U.S. energy network
2. Layer 2 Onsite / Fast Deploy Power
(the real near-term bottleneck solution)
• $BE - Bloom Energy fuel cells
• $GEV - gas turbines + power systems
• $CAT - backup generators
• $CMI - power generation systems
• $KGS - gas compression + mobile power
• $TE - solar + microgrid exposure
3. Layer 3 Grid & Electrical Infrastructure
(the hidden AI winners)
• $ETN - electrical systems
• $PWR - grid buildout
• $VRT - cooling + power management
• $HUBB - transformers + grid equipment
• $NVT - electrical infrastructure
• $EMR - industrial power systems
4. Layer 4 Nuclear & Long-Term Baseload
(the future AI power source)
• $OKLO - advanced nuclear
• $SMR - small modular reactors
• $NNE - portable microreactors
• $CEG - largest U.S. nuclear fleet
• $VST - nuclear + power generation
• $BWXT - reactor components + services
Here is how it breaks down.
AI models get larger. Data centers get bigger.
Energy demand keeps accelerating.
We are doing so AMAZING, and CONGRATS to all my followers.
But listen to me. You NEED to know this:
1. May 25th to June 5th is the NEXT timing cycle.
2. This means that there is a HIGHER probability of weakness in the markets.
3. It's not 100% certain, but I would stay cautious heading into the next 2 weeks.
For our community, we have a BALANCED portfolio of AI stocks $APLD, $CRWV, etc., traditional defensive names like $KO, $LMT, $LLY, and also 2nd dimension stocks.
Get ready to buy the dip and go ALL-IN soon.
@Brownmoose@BeardoTrader Like August 5 2024? Most of the final drop happens before New York opens then big rally followed by a week where average daily intraday chop range is 2-4% up and down in the QQQ?
US Equity Markets have NOT topped.
Though, more downside is likely to come before we head higher into the Final Market Top.
So NOT ringing the BELL yet 🔔
BUT - the situation is very different in Markets around the World.
Below the Hang Seng. The top is in! And it will head MUCH lower.
Soon - the mantra will be: "The US will pull rest of the World out of the slump".
It will not be the case - however it will create the ROTATION from RoW into US assets in the final push higher in US Risk Assets - incl. Crypto!
Wait for it!
As I said!
Silver Rally was a "Hype". And it was the Top - the Weekly Reversal Candle.
No fundamental reason behind that extreme rally.
The "Eiffel-Tower"-structure is now playing out.
Dear Silver-Bulls.... much lower levels coming!
I need you to pay ATTENTION. I will keep WARNING you until you LISTEN.
Before this week I started warning members that a SELL and PULLBACK was coming.
The market was giving us clues.
• Many AI leaders failed continuation breakouts.
• Momentum started slowing across the strongest sectors.
• Even $NVDA, the leader of this entire AI cycle, began showing signs of weakness.
• Fewer stocks were participating in the advance.
When leadership starts cracking, I pay attention.
At the same time, the market has become historically extended 20%
That doesn’t mean the bull market is over.
It means risk is increasing.
My playbook right now:
1.Trim 10-20% from extended winners.
2.Raise some cash.
3.Rotate into stronger risk/reward setups.
https://t.co/0VesM5k838 a watchlist for the next pullback.
I still believe AI is the biggest opportunity of this decade.
I still believe stocks like $NVDA, $AMD, $ARM, $MU, $SNDK $AVGO and others go much higher over the next several years.
But even the strongest bull markets need time to cool off.
The goal isn’t to predict every top.
The goal is to protect capital so you’re ready to attack the next opportunity.
That’s exactly what we’re doing now. I will help you make MILLIONS.
You just have to Listen to what I say.
Pay ATTENTION to what I am telling you.
This will save you thousands..
$SPY is now nearly 20% extended from the weekly 8EMA lows.
Historically, once the market gets this stretched from trend support, we enter the later stages of momentum expansion.
What usually happens next?
1. Momentum starts slowing down
2. Choppy price action increases
3.Pullbacks and failed breakouts become more common
This doesn’t mean the bull market is over.
It means risk gets higher the further price moves away from trend.
What am I doing?
• protecting profits into strength
• avoiding emotional chasing
• preparing for the next high probability entries on pullbacks
AI super cycle names like $NBIS $AAOI $CORZ $DELL and $NVDA will want to look for continuation.
We must look for solid pullback entries instead of chasing.
My FRIENDS. You must LISTEN on what to do next week.
EVERYONE is watching $SPY and $QQQ.
I'm watching $SMH and $DRAM.
Because the leaders tell you the truth before the indexes do.
The AI trade is finally cooling off. Because we became too extended.
Now both Semiconductor and Memory leaders are testing their Weekly 8 EMA after historic runs. $SNDK $MU $ARM $NVDA
This is the area that matters.
If they hold:
• AI resumes leadership
• The bull market continues
• New highs eventually follow
If they fail:
• Expect more volatility
• Expect more fear
• Expect better opportunities
Either way, I'm not panic selling.
I'm not going all-in.
I'm scaling slowly into the highest conviction names while keeping cash, hedges, and defensive positions.
The biggest mistake investors make is thinking they need to pick the exact bottom.
You don't.
It’s about being patient for the bottom to present itself
Watch SMH.
Watch DRAM.
They will tell you where this market goes before $SPX does.
This is how you make MILLIONS.
Everytime there is massive crash in June, $SPY recovers at 30% 1 year later.
Here's 12 stocks under $20 that can easily 10x-20x:
1. $TE — T1 Energy
Aschenbrenner's AI infrastructure bet. Revenue beat by 61%.
2. $POET — POET Technologies
AI photonics optical interposer. Next-gen data center chip architecture.
3. $KEEL — Keel Infrastructure
Ex-Bitcoin miners pivoting hard to AI compute demand.
4. $CLSK — CleanSpark
Verified Aschenbrenner long. Bitcoin miner scaling into AI HPC.
5. $ONDS — Ondas Holdings
Building wireless connectivity for autonomous defense drones. (Trump call)
6. $CIFR — Cipher Mining
Power + data center assets perfectly positioned for AI workloads.
7. $WULF — TeraWulf
Nuclear-powered data centers. Cleanest energy costs in AI compute.
8. $HIVE — HIVE Digital
Revenue up 219% YoY. Pivoting from crypto mining to AI HPC.
9. $SATL — Satellogic
Sub-$10 satellite imaging play. Defense + geospatial AI data boom.
10. $NOK — Nokia
Nvidia invested $1B. AI-RAN + T-Mobile deal. Up 140% YTD still cheap.
11. $BTDR — Bitdeer
Self-mining + AI cloud. Building proprietary ASIC chips in-house.
12. $LAES — SEALSQ
Post-quantum cryptography chips. Every connected device needs this.
Remember, you're getting 1 more chance to add dips again to hold. HOLDING is the best way to make money in this market not scalping.
♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll DM you my favorite stock to buy under $10 (and its strong too)
My dear followers. LISTEN to me for what's to come and what to do.
$QQQ and AI stocks has STARTED a downtrending cycle on the smaller timeframes.
This is confirmed by a pivot break on RSI, large bearish volume, and bearish divergence, and confirmed bearish momentum on MACD
However, we are STILL bullish against the April pivot lows long-term.
What does this mean?
1. The markets will most likely stay bearish short-term with relief rallies along the way.
2. Expect a relief rally to test if bears have conviction, markets will try to bounce and head to all-time highs again.
3. If this rally fails, this setups a LOWER-high scenario that will target more downside closer to my moving averages (62 and 88 EMA or 200 SMA) for a healthy reset.
What should you do for AI stocks?
1. Micro-position. Build your AI positions SLOWLY. There is no confirmed bottom yet on the 1-hour timeframe.
2. Every day, you can buy in SMALL chunks and build up your AI positions. (Day 1, $300. Day 2, $300, Day 3, $300, etc.).
3. These are PROBING positions. You're testing to see what's going on and eliminating FOMO.
How should the portfolio look like?
1. There is no confirmed bottom yet on the 1-hour timeframe.
2. So, you should KEEP your defensive stocks that I own, like $WMT, $DE, $LLY, $MCD, etc. in case more volatility comes
3. You should also KEEP my 15% hedge like $PSQ until prices reach my potential moving averages
How does MY portfolio look like?
1. AI winners 40%
2. Laggards 15%
3. Defensives 15%
4. Hedges 15%
5. Cash 15%
Our portfolio stays so STRONG during red days, and OUTPERFORMS on green days.
Wait for my signal to go all-in; right now, I stay BALANCED.
$NVDA is red today, but my bull case has not changed.
In today’s video I walk through why I still expect $250 -> $270 this summer and how I see this pullback.
If you trade $NVDA , watch this breakdown.