Orchid Macro

Insightful analysis of the global macro environment and commodities markets. Follow me for in-depth analysis, market updates, and insightful research.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@fundstrat yen rallies, dollar falls, this is positive for liquidity, no? @crossbordercap

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@BlackSky_Inc @washingtonexec Even though the share price tumbled from $10 to $1? 🤡

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@TinFormer_News Agreed. SHFE tin stocks to move lower in August

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@profplum99 those are my quants, baby

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@PauloMacro this is just one day

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@LynAldenContact ray dalio

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@fundstrat @fs_insight Love it!

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@AndreasSteno China's physical copper market is depressed. Not sure where you get your info.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@profplum99 insurance premiums are driven by interest rates? can you explain the logic here

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@AndreasSteno It's a seasonal build, exacerbated by strong domestic refined production growth and imports. LME exchange inventories have been down each month of Q1. The long-end of the LME curve is backwardated = fundamentals will tighten. And momentum positive = positive spec flows. 🫶

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@PeakTrading What's the year-to-date performance looks like, matey?

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@fundstrat @Swan @fs_insight Supply growth, not supply, is shrinking, Thomas.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@TaviCosta #Bitcoin predicted it.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@profplum99 I don't see any backwardation across industrial metals like copper. Why are you saying that the window is open again?

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

So growth should continue to outperform value?

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

One thing I learned in life.....

There is no such thing as a triple top.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@aschmidt2930 I like $SWN a lot here.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

3. Policymakers in China are demonstrating increased responsiveness to market indicators, a factor that is likely to positively impact domestic risk assets.

More insights on Seeking Alpha: https://t.co/7QqvddQuMK

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

Macro environment for commodities: Bullish 2024
Surge in global liquidity from China.
Thread.

1. Capital being reallocated towards infrastructure projects, such as green technology. This means more copper consumption.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

2. The recent RRR cut by the PBOC represents a preliminary step towards a more significant strategic shift.

[Orchid Macro @OrchidMacro]

@PauloMacro Jeff Currie says 2023 price weakness was supply-driven. demand still strong.