OrgasmicCry

Enjoying Financial Freedom - by ignoring all conventional financial advice.

Be bold with your investments 🙏🏼

Friends, Mountain biking, golf, holidays.

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

We love your platform @trading212 but we don’t love how long you take to get these new super popular stocks available on that platform.

Pretty please. With a cherry on top 🙏

[Strive @Strive]

Two days until the first daily dividend record date.

$SATA

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

@cryptomanran Ran is the click bait worth complete loss of any small remaining credibility?

Come on man you used to be better than this

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Dear @Ford can we have the Mustang GTD in @thegranturismo please?

I’m sure Polyphony Digital will help

[Nürburgring @nuerburgring]

Nordschleife in 06:40.835 minutes!

🚗Vehicle: FORD Mustang GTD Competition
👨Driver: Dirk Müller
⏲️Time: 06:40.835 minutes
🛣️Track: Nordschleife
🏅Category: Prototypes / pre-production vehicles

📺 Watch the whole lap on our YouTube Channel here: https://t.co/44je4sYDiM
All official laptimes: https://t.co/BSeB0IAusi

#HeartRace

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

@asjwebley @TimKotzman Article behind paywall = no one reads it, rendered irrelevant

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

So @PunterJeff you need to address this please 🙏

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

Strive Is Doing Everything Right. The Math Is Doing Something Else.

There is a lot to admire about what Strive ($ASST) has built since February. Sixteen thousand bitcoin in a treasury that was empty at the start of last year. A 13% perpetual preferred market that has cleared every tranche near par. The first daily-dividend structure on a U.S. listed security, launching June 16. The chart genuinely looks like a flywheel set in glass.

But the case is pretty above the fold and thin below it. Sitting with the May 22 8-K and walking the structure forward, I find a constant drag and two compression mechanisms the discourse is not capturing. None of the three break the credit math, though they matter for the equity.

What the May 22 8-K actually says.
16,500 #BTC. 5,759,719 $SATA shares outstanding — $576M of par face. 75.8M common shares. $93M cash. $50M of Strategy's $STRC on the asset side. Annual SATA coupon at 13% on par: $74.9M of fixed USD obligations against an asset base that is 89% bitcoin.

Amplification is a ratchet. It works both ways.
At BTC $73K, SATA face is ~48% of the bitcoin stack. Hold the SATA stack constant — because the issuance schedule is decided, but the BTC price is not — and let's see what happens under different scenarios.

See "Amplification is a Ratchet" table below.

At $50K, prefs are 70% of the bitcoin stack and common NAV halves while BTC drops 32%. That is amplification working symmetrically — the same feature that supercharges returns in a bid tape supercharges them in reverse in an offered one.

Side note: I am NOT calling for $50K BTC. If you've been following me long enough, you already know that I am an eternal BTC bull. But I've been in #Bitcoin long enough to be humbled enough times to 'never say never' when it comes to near-term price movements.

The engine isn't free, even on a calm day.
$74.9M is ~5.4% of Strive's ~$1.38B market cap. Add public-company overhead and the legacy asset-management business and the all-in fixed drag sits closer to 6% p.a. Before BTC does anything.

The coins in their treasury don't pay it. The legacy AM business is not sized to cover it. The $50M STRC stake throws off ~$5M/yr, a rounding error against the obligation. In practice the coupon gets funded by the Class A common ATM. $75M of fresh common per year at the current ~$18 stock prints ~4M new shares — another 5%+ of constant dilution on top of whatever BTC is doing. That is the floor. The compression scenarios sit on top of it.

And one piece the consensus does not surface: ATM dilution is least painful when the multiple is bid up. The moment mNAV compresses, the same coupon obligation requires more shares to fund. Drawdown does not only hit NAV — it accelerates the dilution velocity exactly when shareholders can least absorb it. Granted, they hold a fiat reserve that should cover near term drawdowns.

The compression most readers are missing.
The premium $ASST trades at is not just a multiple on the bitcoin in custody. It is partly a multiple on the funding engine itself — on the perception that SATA can be issued reliably, at par, in $40-100M weekly tranches, to buy more BTC. Keep it running and you own a compounding machine. Strip it away and you own a small-cap with 16,500 BTC and a $75M annual coupon.

So how much is the market paying for the engine? Run the arithmetic.
Common's net residual value — BTC at market plus cash plus STRC, less SATA face — is $772M. Across 75.8M shares, that is $10.19 per share of intrinsic. Stock at $18.21 implies $8.02 of premium per share — roughly 44% of the price is paying for the engine, not the stack. Aggregate: ~$608M of premium baked into the common, sitting above $1.20B of BTC NAV. Roughly half a billion dollars of capitalized confidence in the chassis.

Now stress two dials together — BTC price and the mNAV multiple. Today's implied mNAV is ~1.50x (EV / BTC value).

See table "The Double Compression" below.

Read the corners. BTC stays at $73K and the premium collapses to NAV: −44%. BTC drops 32% to $50K and the multiple holds at 1.50x: −41%. BTC drops 32% and the multiple compresses to par: −71%. The other 30 points of drawdown in that worst cell — the gap between "NAV down" and "NAV plus premium gone" — is the engine giving back what it bought.

That is the double-compression in a single grid.
The mechanism behind it is the part the consensus is underweighting. When bitcoin drops materially, the SATA market itself becomes a harder bid. 13% on a treasury that just lost a third of its collateral is a different security than the one buyers were pricing in April. New tranches need a higher coupon, print below par, or do not print at all. The moment it freezes is the moment the mNAV multiple resets, because the multiple was paying for the engine in part. NAV down. Premium on the engine, also down. Both legs hit at the same tick.

That is the asymmetry. The same reflexivity that built the premium is the reflexivity that closes it. Pro-cyclical on the way up sounds like a virtue. Pro-cyclical on the way down is the same word, slightly less flattering.

What this is not.
This is not "Strive is overleveraged." Coverage at $50K BTC is still ~13 years on pure asset-over-coupon math. So the credit is fine.

This is "the equity is exposed to a compression that the consensus is underweighting." Different problem.

MSTR's preferred stack has been here before. $STRC compressed in stress; it never froze. The difference was scale — at Strategy's size, the funding engine is a smaller fraction of the thesis. At Strive's current scale, the engine is a larger fraction of it. And they're coming off a smaller base. That is also why the growth has been so visible and why the multiple has been so generous. The same property cuts both ways.

What I am watching.
To be clear: this is not a post that is meant to be bearish on $ASST, in fact, if/when we see BTC strength, I expect it to be one of the best performing stocks in the sector. Having said that, for the later entrants, be careful what you're paying for in the near term.

The first SATA tranche that prints below par will be the tell. Until then, the engine is working — and working well. After that print, the question worth answering is not whether to be long $ASST — it is how much of today's mNAV is paying for the bitcoin, and how much is paying for the engine. Today those two questions look like the same trade. They will not always be.

Disclosure: I do not hold $ASST or $SATA. I hold $MPJPY (#Metaplanet).

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

All done 👍

[Strategy @Strategy]

2 weeks until the Annual Meeting. If you own $STRC, your vote on semi-monthly dividends matters. Don't sit this one out. Vote now. Visit https://t.co/4pgIjKOrT1 to learn more.

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

“When you buy SATA within the HOUR we’ve used that money to buy Bitcoin”

❤️

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Strive just did something no public company has ever done.

$SATA is paying shareholders a 13% DAILY Bitcoin-backed dividend.

The first daily dividend in stock market history.

Full breakdown with $ASST’s Chief Risk Officer @PunterJeff 👇🏼

Timestamps:
00:00 SATA: The First U.S. Listed Security to Pay Daily Dividends
8:51 Strive Enters Top 10 Bitcoin Holder Ranks
10:39 Strive's Daily Dividends Beating $MSTR To It... What's the Catch?
11:21 Why Don't More Companies Pay Daily Dividends?
13:15 Structuring Daily Capital Asset Distributions
14:01 What is Digital Credit?
16:30 How is $SATA Able to Pay 13% Yield?
19:21 Strive is Re-Establishing Trust
21:08 Bitcoin Digital Credit Insurance Analogy
28:35 History of Strive
34:51 Why Traditional Income Investing Models Are Failing Retail Investors
37:51 The 2008 Financial Crisis Tore His Family Apart
46:35 Betting Everything on MSTR Options: Making 2000%
52:14 How Jeff Thinks About His Portfolio Now

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Thank you so much, so so much, for everything Pep 💙💙💙💙👂

[Manchester City @ManCity]

Ten years that will live forever.

Thank you for everything, Pep 🩵

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Views of Starship in space from a @Starlink satellite

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Literally no greater praise.

From the OG !!

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

@ColeMacro @Strive Impressive. Congrats to the entire @Strive team.

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Total Gamechanger

13% per annum
1.083% per month
0.052% per working day

We like. We love.

All we need now @Trading212 is to be able to buy it on your platform!

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

STRIVE - The Daily Dividend Company

Digital Credit is going DAILY

Below are the improvements on the horizon for $SATA and @Strive

What it means and why it matters 🧵👇

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Dear @Keir_Starmer you say “the country expects…blah blah blah”

And as always you’re 100% wrong.

The country has spoken. We want you gone as soon as possible. That’s it.

Now do us all a favour, drop the PR twaddle that’s ruined you and piss off

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Do play Backgammon. Fantastic game.

Don’t whatever you do go anywhere near the detestable @BGammonGalaxy

After 1 years play, lots of proof dice are NOT random, and are engineered day by day per their desires.

The hunt for a truly random dice backgammon game goes on!

[Tesla Robotaxi @robotaxi]

In formation

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Now that @grok is a paid app, what to use instead?

Neither @ChatGPTapp or @GeminiApp are particularly appetising 😒 😑

@grok you were so good, I recommended you for so long! Let us love you again 🙏

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

.@grok what is going on, you have been essential unavailable for more than 2 days now?

Is it a sales move?

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Here here! Thanks for diligently composing the message we all want to send 🙏👍

If only Keir Starmer would act

[Will @TeslaJigsaw]

This is my Tesla Model Y in the UK.

It already has all the hardware and software needed to drive itself under my supervision - making it dramatically safer than any regular car on our roads.

Yet @transportgovuk, @Heidi_Alexander and the Vehicle Certification Agency have still not approved it for use here.

It’s like having seatbelts fitted in the car… but the government won’t let you use them.

This technology is already working safely in other countries around the world. Why are UK drivers and other road users being held back from a safer future?

Enough with the delays already - follow the @RDWnl lead and get this approved.

#Tesla #ModelY #FSD #FullSelfDriving #UKAutonomous @elonmusk

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Hey @SafePal the promo tire running with @lootgo_official isn’t working.

Tried contacting them, no reply 😒

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Hey @lootgo_official raffle tickets not registering 😒

Can’t raise Discord ticket as (yawn) Guild doesn’t recognise Seeker wallet….

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

NEWS: Dutch regulators (RDW), which just approved @Tesla FSD (Supervised) in the Netherlands, have just issued an official statement:

"Due to the continuous strict monitoring of the driver in the vehicle, the system is safer than other driver assistance systems. We have thoroughly researched and checked this system, more than a year and a half.

The RDW has issued a type approval for Tesla's driver's assistance system, FSD Supervised. This driver's assistance system has been extensively researched and tested on our test track and on public roads for more than a half years. Safety is paramount for the RDW. The proper use of this driver's system makes a positive contribution to road safety."

This approval from the RDW clears the path for approval in other European countries. Tesla owners in the Netherlands will be receiving FSD (Supervised) on their cars shortly. Amazing day!

[OrgasmicCry @OrgasmicCry]

Hey @lootgo_official raffle tickets not registering 😒

Can’t raise Discord ticket as (yawn) Guild doesn’t recognise Seeker wallet….