Ouarda Merrouche

Economist

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Hormuz goes bang

Putin talks peace

China, Russia, India meet at Shanghai Cooperation Summit

What do these all have in common?

Watch “Last Week Today” to get ahead https://t.co/9V2eA5AnCl

[Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap]

A mercator vs. true size map.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The latest US jobs report came in significantly stronger than expected across both sides of the labor market: demand and supply.
Specifically:
Job Creation: Nonfarm payrolls surged from an upwardly revised 21,000 to 162,000, roughly three times the consensus forecast.
Labor Supply: The labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%, beating expectations and marking its strongest level in nearly a year.
Other Key Indicators: The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations.
Together, these indicators point to a US labor market that remains robust with firm demand and is stabilization on the supply side.
#economy #jobs #earnings #employment #unemployment

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Posted earlier:
My thoughts on what’s ahead for AI’s capital market impact as internal and external tugs of war intensify:
https://t.co/a4gbmBt7dV
#economy #markets #ai @ProSyn

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Three points on this Bloomberg’s chart detailing the surge in China’s trade surplus:
The surplus has widened despite a global rise in trade barriers.
After reaching nearly $700 bn through July, the full-year surplus is projected to exceed last year's record $1.2 tr.
This isn't just about Chinese EVs in Europe. China's ability to manufacture throughout the value chain is eroding the development "escalator" that rising developing economies have historically pursued.
#economy #markets #china #development #trade

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Thank you very much, Mario, for the conversation and for for having me on your show.
#economy #markets @MarioNawfal

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Why is the "smart bomb trap" so seductive?

From Reagan to Clinton to Trump, U.S. presidents have repeatedly fallen for the illusion of easy, low-risk air power

My new video explains why Iran is the worst case yet—and how clean tactical strikes invite strategic disaster https://t.co/WsmSSlP6hP

[Matthieu Pigasse @MPigasse]

Le journalisme, ce sont des faits. Sinon, cela porte un autre nom.

@SoMabrouk dit : « il n’a pas été question d’annulation sur la dette grecque ».

En 2012, 106 milliards d’euros de dette ont été annulés. Près de 75% de décote en valeur économique sur la dette détenue par les créanciers privés.

Les créanciers publics ont eux-mêmes allégé leur créance en valeur économique, par des maturités étalées sur plus de 30 ans et des taux réduits — un allègement d’environ 50 % en valeur actuelle nette.

Et la bataille fut précisément politique : obtenir l’annulation la plus élevée possible pour alléger la dette et limiter le plus possible l’ajustement budgétaire imposé à la Grèce.

Quant à l’origine de la crise : le gouvernement de gauche de Papandréou avait hérité en 2009 de comptes dont le déficit avait été gravement sous-estimé par le gouvernement conservateur précédent.

On ne peut bien sûr pas comparer des situations qui ne sont pas comparables.
Mais on peut débattre de tout. Encore faut-il commencer par connaître les faits.
@BFMTV

[Global Capital Allocation Project @GCAProject]

❗New GCAP essay on chokepoints and global fragmentation in @HooverInst's Freedom Frequency. Christopher Clayton, @m_maggiori, and @JSchreger write about major chokepoints in the global economy, why they matter, and the risks they entail.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

The planet is getting hotter, and there’s an unexpected reason why. Earth’s albedo—which is a measure of how much sunlight it reflects back into space—is falling. This means Earth is absorbing more heat than it is emitting, and that could make warming in the coming years 10-30% higher than current estimates suggest. Find out why scientists are alarmed: https://t.co/R7KJiIxpaC

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The decoupling continues, aided by the power of the dual theme market:
Per the FT, "The Vix index, a barometer of implied stock market volatility known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, sank below 15 this week, far below its long-term average and a level last seen before the US-Iran war began in late February."
#markets @ft #economy

[Med @mhimedbentayeb]

L'#Algérie sur le toit du monde !🇩🇿🏆Le club d'Albert Einstein (#SidiBelAbbès) décroche la 1ère place mondiale au Robot Challenge Award 2026! Ils ont pulvérisé la catégorie LEGO Line Straight Sprint en un temps record de 3,74 secondes face à 27 pays #RobotChallenge2026 #TeamDz

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Watch my CNN Smerconish interview this morning!

3 Maps show exactly why US air/naval power cannot open Hormuz by Nov midterms

Only 2 choices: accept Iran's draconian demands or use ground forces. No middle option!

https://t.co/xYQLEsaQLF

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

The global order is shifting fast in wake of Iran war

Old rules are breaking down as new powers rise to shape the future

Read my new foreign affairs article out today to see who holds the cards now and …

What it means for your world

https://t.co/BOVKYL2CMn

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

This fantastic figure by @jburnmurdoch is Exhibit 1 of what an aging society means for the political game: public investment, which is choosing future rewards over present consumption, gets squeezed out.

Still not convinced this is a first-order challenge?

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Here is the link to this morning’s conversation on Squawk Box.

Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe, for having me on the show. I enjoyed our conversation.

https://t.co/5VuFPEmqLg

#economy #markets #federalreserve @cnbc @SquawkCNBC @JoeSquawk @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin #ai

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Read the 14-Point Draft Memorandum, out by Bloomberg apparently leaked by Saudi

Complete capitulation by US, including US agrees to support $300 billion for Iran

This is a roadmap to Iran’s regional primacy and becoming the 4th center of world power https://t.co/1ewMTiHNZB

[Ouarda Merrouche @OuardaMerrouche]

@GitaGopinath @a_presbitero @KGeorgieva What about quality of life ?!!!….

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Why we are in the middle game of the worst Escalation Trap in US history

Not the endgame

And things will get worse

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

After yesterday's US CPI report for May, we get the PPI numbers this morning.
The consensus forecast is looking for a monthly gain of 0.7%, taking annual headline inflation to 6.4% (from 6.0% in April).
Core PPI inflation is expected to edge higher from 5.2% to 5.4% on the back of a 0.5% monthly gain.
#economy #inflation #ppi #markets