Outsider Polling

The only place on X focussing on the performance of outsider parties. 📊
Weekly Models tracking the performance of Restore, Advance, Your party, and more!

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

Credit to @HVilday for the expanded model

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

OFFICIAL OutsiderPolling Makerfield by-election prediction using our model:
🌹LAB: 49.54%
➡️REF: 33.45%
🇬🇧 RES: 10.86%
🌍GRN: 1.49%
🌳CON: 1.43%
🔶LDM: 1.3%
⬜️Pownall: 0.66%
🐍LTN: 0.55%
🗑️BIN: 0.28%
🎩MRLP: 0.15%
🇪🇺 REJ: 0.11%
⬜���Dyer: 0.11%
🌱CLI: 0.06%
⬜️Gould: 0.01%

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

@fionasins_ @ElectionMapsUK Too right!!

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

@fionasins_ Fear not, we're making adjustments to our model, but we shall be back soon.
Such an exciting time to follow small parties, you could never keep us away!

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

@thisisyourparty @GoodGrowthFdn Detailed Map here
credit to @TheotherWill_NE

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

new pollster? maybe an opportunity to widen the party list
@thisisyourparty could win 12 seats under this model
➡️REF: 23%
🌹LAB: 19%
🌳CON: 15%
🔶LDM: 11%
🌍GRN: 9%
🇬🇧RES: 9%
🟥YP: 7%
🎗️SNP: 4%
🌻PC: 1%
OutsiderPolling projection of @GoodGrowthFdn results

[Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK]

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 28% (+13)
LAB: 21% (-14)
CON: 20% (-4)
GRN: 12% (+5)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @GoodGrowthFdn - New BPC pollster! - 13-16 Feb.
Changes w/ GE2024.

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

if @thisisyourparty were included in the under 65s vote, it could receive 23 seats!!
➡️REF: 187 (18%)
🌹LAB: 179 (18%)
🔶LDM: 93 (13%)
🌍GRN: 72 (18%)
🎗️SNP: 52 (4%)
🟥YP: 23 (10%)
🌻PC: 20 (2%)
🌳CON: 4 (11%)
🇬🇧 RES: 1 (7%)

[cez @cezthesocialist]

The Green Party is leading with the entire under 65 cohort.

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

@_francophobe @thisisyourparty @YouGov We have enough polling to gain a reasonable understanding as to what the restore and Your Party Results would look like, had they been there.
You'll notice that the polling for "other" went up, primarily due to people backing restore even if it's not on the list

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

Under this poll, @thisisyourparty could get 25 seats!
Projected vote share:
➡️REF: 20% (-4)
🌹LAB: 17% (-2)
🌳CON: 14% (-4)
🌍GRN: 14% (-3)
🔶LDM: 12% (-1)
🟥YP: 9% (+9)
🇬🇧RES: 9% (+9)
🎗️SNP: 3% (=)
🌻PC: 2% (+1)
⬜️OTH: 3% (-1)
OutsiderPolling projection based on @YouGov results

[YouGov @YouGov]

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (15-16 February 2026)

Reform UK: 24% (-3 from 8-9 Feb)
Labour: 19% (=)
Conservatives: 18% (=)
Greens: 17% (+1)
Lib Dems: 13% (-1)

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

Credit to @TheotherWill_NE for production of seat map
Detailed map here:

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

@TheotherWill_NE Clearly someone with a real interest in the future of restore britain in uk politics

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

Our model suggests that Restore would win 2 seats under this poll:
⬜️ Great Yarmouth
🟦 Keighley and Ilkley
Restore also feature in some close marginals with this polling, such as:
🟦 Richmond and Northallerton (REF+1.9)
🟦 Rutland and Stamford (REF+1.8)
🟦 Tatton (REF+0.8)

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: A new poll shows Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain would get 10% of the vote

➡️ Reform UK - 25%
🟢 Green Party - 20%
🔴 Labour - 15%
🔵 Conservatives - 13%
🇬🇧 Restore Britain - 10%
🔶 Lib Dems - 10%

Via @FindoutnowUK, 1,000 sample size

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

📊Under this polling, @thisisyourparty could get 13 seats! 📈
➡️REF: 25% (+11)
🌹LAB: 15% (-19)
🌳CON: 14% (-9)
🔶LDM: 12% (=)
🌍GRN: 11% (+4)
🇬🇧RES: 10% (+10)
🟥YRP: 7% (+7)
🎗️SNP: 3% (+1)
🌻PLC: 2% (+1)
⬜️OTH: 1% (-2)
(+/- change with 2024)

[Techne UK @techneUK]

📊NEW POLL: LATEST WESTMINSTER VOTER INTENTIONS

Conservatives: 19% (-1)
Labour: 17% (-2)
Lib Dems: 14% (-1)
Reform UK: 30% (+2)
Greens: 15% (+2)
SNP: 2% (=)
Others: 3% (=)

1644 Surveyed
Field Work: 11th & 12th February
+/- 16th January
Data: https://t.co/HSMFSdGXnm

#UKPolitics

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

Source: @Outsiderpolling Projection of latest @techneUK poll

[Outsider Polling @Outsiderpolling]

If an election were held today, featuring Restore Britain, it would achieve 9.6% in national vote share 📊
Whilst it's only expected to win Great Yarmouth, there are close marginals like:
🟥 Tatton (Ref +2.1)
🟦 Keighley + Ilkley (Con +2.5)
🟦 Richmond + Northallerton (Ref +3.5)

[Rupert Lowe MP @RupertLowe10]

I am today launching Restore Britain as a national political party.

Join us.

https://t.co/RMtEuHopgV