deOzz

FinTech | Insurance | Retirement | Public & private markets. Interested in creative ideas to make the world a better place.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So $CAVA, which trades at over 100x flattish EPS, just guided to a huge slowdown in 2H SSS. The 1Q was 9.7%, and this 2Q was 9.0%…but the entire year is now guided to 4.5% to 6.5%…?! That’s 0-4% for the 2H of the year.

[Jay Martin @JayMartinBC]

Before a collapse, nothing looks wrong. The numbers are printing records, the money is flowing, and the people warning about it are laughed out of the room.

Last time it was housing. Today it's AI.

The fire doesn't start when the rally ends. It starts inside the climb. Here's how it happens.

[deOzz @OzzTheChris]

@JayMartinBC What a college crash course ! Well presented! 👍

[deOzz @OzzTheChris]

As the AI compute build out continues, it will increase capacity. But eventually the margins that will start to deteriorate (overcapacity).
When that tilting point starts, things will get interesting.
For now, with FEMO in full swing, the music keeps on playing.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$NVDA

JENSEN IS LIVE WITH THE CEOS OF GOLDMAN SACHS, BLACKROCK, BLACKSTONE KKR, BROOKFIELD, AND APOLLO TO EXPLAIN THIS NEW $500B DEAL:

“Compute is becoming an asset class.”

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

The biggest cheese banks in Italy store 300,000+ wheels of Parmesan.

Dairy farmers use cheese as collateral and get loans up to 80% of market value. At ~$1,000 per wheel, that’s $200m+ in loans (banks seize and sell cheese if farmer can’t pay back).

Best part: banks use automated machines that brush and turn the cheese wheels everyday to keep them fresh.

***

Vid link: https://t.co/ohAA6wNgoD

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Congratulations to Bartłomiej Kubkowski who just became the first person ever to swim across the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Poland.

He spent 56 hours in the water without sleeping and swam 160 km (100 miles).

[ProMint @ProMint_X]

Ken Griffin basically said: "fuck AI"

He printed fucking billions on AI stocks...

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, said AI doesn’t help business.

At a dinner with CEOs and top executives of global corporations, AI hadn't transformed their business even once.

Not at all.

Just classic optimization, old-school algorithms and basic ML that’s been in use for ten years already.

These guys call literally everything "AI"—from Excel formulas to basic automation—just to pitch it to investors and not look like dinosaurs.

Now this guy actually knows his shit!

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Bessent is in panic mode... he intervened to support the yen.

To prevent Japan from selling even more US assets, he joined Japan in a massive coordinated intervention.

But instead of selling USD, the US sold EUR.

To keep this war going, the US has to bail out major holders of US assets to prevent them from selling... especially Treasuries.

The US simply can't afford this war, which is why it only escalates when markets are closed.

[TheBronxViking @TheBronxViking]

There’s one every cycle…

[bodila @51bodila]

Palantir CEO: "I'm not anti-Anthropic - I'm pro my customers, they overpaid on tokens and transferred their edge to a lab that thinks they will die - that's why we built the opposite with Nvidia"

Alex Karp just revealed why Europe is dead, which AI actually survives - and what he's building instead

His words:

"we have a template for what doesn't work. it's called Europe"

"we're building for the U.S. government on the open-weight side with Nvidia - we can get the best performers in the world"

"we're going to end up having to regulate AI, no doubt. the question is who regulates it - and do they understand what they're doing?"

"Sam Altman came out and said we've achieved singularity with AI - which means it is beyond human control. do you agree? do you have any fear of that?

- my version is - enterprises need to be sovereign and you run effectively, because we do have competition, primarily from China"

bookmark & watch today ↓

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

“I was not a courageous venturesome man, I was a cautious little squirrel, saving up more nuts than I needed.”

“I got paid about $350,000 in my first 13 years of Law practice. And I had an army of children and I saved over $300,000 in liquid instruments.”

“As a lawyer, I wanted independence, I hated sending invoices to other richer people. I wanted my own money.”

- Charlie Munger

[Dave Hale - Concerned Republican @CountryFirstRep]

Unreal just how prescient he was...

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

Nobody made money owning the internet, everybody made money building on top of it (Save this).

That's @friedberg argument because Netscape built the first browser and server software, charged for both, went public, then got wiped out once open source alternatives showed up.

Mozilla built Firefox for free, Google built Chrome for free, Apache gave away server software so anyone could get online without paying a toll.

The value didn't vanish, it just moved off the gatekeepers and onto everyone building on top, Google, eBay, Etsy, Amazon, and millions of small businesses that never could have existed otherwise.

Friedberg's claim is that AI is following the same script.

If open models keep closing the gap with proprietary ones, value stops concentrating in two or three labs and spreads across every company building on top of it and the data backs this up.

Stanford's 2026 AI Index found the gap between the best closed model and the best open model has shrunk to about 3.3%, down from double digits two years ago.

Chinese open models now account for 41% of downloads on Hugging Face over the past year and more than 30% of Fortune 500 companies have verified accounts pulling models straight from that ecosystem.

Enterprise sentiment backs it too, 41% of organizations say they'd drop proprietary models entirely once open ones hit parity, and another 41% are expanding open source usage regardless.

The market already got a preview of this snapping into place.

DeepSeek's open weight model release in January 2025 wiped close to $600 billion off Nvidia's market cap in a single day.

That's what Chamath means by value capture evaporating in months, not decades. A sector with what looked like permanent pricing power turned out to have a shelf life measured in product cycles.

Where this gets uncomfortable is capex and if enterprises can get most of what they need from a free open model on their own hardware, the case for endlessly compounding training spend weakens.

Analysts have flagged this as a risk that isn't priced into current capex forecasts, precisely because open models keep closing the gap faster than commercial labs are widening it.

[deOzz @OzzTheChris]

@icapitalnetwork and @OneCarlyle are pitching portfolios with more private market products that have less volatility. No shit! No surprise you have less volatility when you remove live market pricing from the equation! Curious what @CliffordAsness thinks

https://t.co/RDYaGNVwr5

[deOzz @OzzTheChris]

Weekend thoughts on the market

https://t.co/uIANIddvXM

[Clifford Asness @CliffordAsness]

Yeah, like I’m wrong…

[deOzz @OzzTheChris]

The market is acting like a drunken student after finals—wobbly, crab-walking sideways with no clear direction and zero fear (VIX @ 17; VIXEQ @ 50). Puts expire worthless, longs get wicked out. Just a dull summer party.
Who sobers this up? Warsh? The BOJ?

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Cramer is such a mega contra that Hugging Face got hacked by OpenAI and had to use a chinese open-source LLM to fix it 😭😭😭😭

How it started. How it’s going.

[Colossus @colossusmag]

In June, Matthew Smith wrote a letter to a small group of confidants about the U.S. natural gas market.

"This will sound like heresy. Energy, power, and AI heresy."

In it, he projects an unprecedented natural gas shortage beginning in late 2028.

By 2030, working gas storage could be exhausted entirely.

Gas is the marginal fuel for electricity in most of the country. When it becomes scarce, everyone pays. Hyperscalers, LNG buyers, and households alike.

The letter was never meant to be public.

We asked if we could publish it so listeners could see the full work.

It includes the model, the math behind it, the winners and losers, and his rebuttals to every objection he expects.

He said yes. Full, 20-page letter in the comments.

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

A US senator says the crypto market structure bill is close to passing.