PA Weather Plus, LLC

Covering the state of Pennsylvania and other important weather events since 2014. 225K on Facebook, Owner Degreed Meteorologist @denysk02

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
⛅ Wednesday, November 11

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Wednesday! We will have our next system begin to approach the region, so we will see increasing cloud cover throughout the day. Hopefully you soaked in the sunshine yesterday, because changes are coming! We are still going to see another mild day, with most areas climbing into the low-mid 60s.

There is a small chance for rain showers to arrive before sunset across western Pennsylvania, but the majority of the showers will arrive later tonight into Thursday morning.🌧️

FRIDAY RAINFALL... Here is a preliminary look at the rainfall amounts through Friday evening. The heaviest of the rain will be focused across northern and northeastern Pennsylvania, where over an inch of rain may be possible. Some of this will be associated with downpours.

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Rain #November #Weather

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Why is there a risk of snow across portions of Pennsylvania and the Northeast this weekend? Well, we have a pretty significant pattern change. A strong blocking high-pressure system over Canada is allowing for the coldest air to push through into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Even if you don't see snowflakes fly Friday or Saturday, you will feel the cold air, as many areas will see high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Stay tuned! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Northeast #Weather #November

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** REMEMBERING THE EDMUND FITZGERALD, 51 YEARS LATER **

51 years ago tonight, on November 10, 1975, the SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior. All 29 men aboard were lost. This is still one of the most talked-about shipwrecks in Great Lakes/boating history, and for a good reason!

So, what happened that night? A powerful November low-pressure system moved across the Great Lakes, bringing hurricane-force wind gusts and waves topping 25 feet. The Fitzgerald was hauling a full load of iron ore out of Superior, Wisconsin, and was trying to reach the shelter of Whitefish Bay. The ship never made it. The ship disappeared from radar about 17 miles from safety. There were no distress call, so none of those aboard the ship were able to call for help. Weather communications were basically non-existent back then, so proper precautions weren't taken in place that could have prevented this tragic accident.

THE SHIP - When the ship was launched in 1958, the “Mighty Fitz” was the largest ship on the Great Lakes. Fitzgerald spent 17 years carrying ore across the Lakes before that final trip. Captain Ernest McSorley was a veteran of the Lakes and was planning to retire after that season.

THE LEGACY - Every year the Mariners’ Church in Detroit rings its bell 29 times, once for each crew member. The ship’s own bell was raised from the wreck in 1995 and is now on display at the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum at Whitefish Point, Michigan.

Take a moment tonight to remember those 29 sailors and their families. And remember, November storms on the Great Lakes are no joke, even today. ALWAYS respect the weather!

#EdmundFitzgerald #GreatLakes #LakeSuperior #November10

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@jnphotographies Dude stop trusting the GFS 5+ days out and you won’t be disappointed 😂

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SAY IT AIN'T SNOW!❄️

As I mentioned yesterday, we will have a system move into the region on Thursday, bringing rain showers across the state and maybe even a rumble of thunder. As this low-pressure system moves off the coast, we will see unseasonably cool air filter in. With limited moisture on the backside of the system, it will become cold enough to see rain showers mix with snow showers. Keep in mind, it can and does snow above 32 degrees, as snowflakes are formed well up in the atmosphere, not at the ground surface.

Snowfall accumulations will be very limited. Most areas in the grey shaded areas are expected to see flakes. Those in the lighter blue shades may see minor accumulations. The Laurel Highlands will have the best chance to see 1"+ of snow, due to uplift from the mountains, and those in far northwestern Pennsylvania at higher elevations. Accumulations will largely hold to elevated and colder surfaces.

These amounts are from the NBM (National Blend of Models), and they depict a reasonable scenario. Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Snow #Winter #November

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
☀️ Tuesday, November 10

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Tuesday! We've made it to the double digits of November, and it will be quite a nice day. After yesterday's wind, clouds, and cooler conditions, today we will see mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s for most locations. It will be a beautiful day to soak in the sunshine and the milder weather! Enjoy it, because we have major changes coming to the forecast on Thursday as a low-pressure system moves in. Rain/snow showers will be possible on Friday and Saturday.

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Weather #November #Sunshine

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** FIRST PENNSYLVANIA SNOW OF THE SEASON COMING SOON **

While we are certainly not getting two feet of snow (despite some ridiculous posts I've seen over the past few days), we are also not going to escape the storm system and the colder air to follow. And yes, this includes the first flakes of the upcoming season for many!

So, with the information and guidance I have now, what is going to happen? We will see a low-pressure system move into the region on Thursday, bringing widespread rain showers. As this system moves up the coast, we will have colder air filter in on its backside. This air looks to be cold enough to change areas to snow or a rain/snow mix, but there will be a lot of dry air. So overall, the winter impacts from this system will be limited, but some may notice it.

AREA A - High confidence to see at least flakes fly Friday and Saturday; this includes the higher elevations of northern PA and the Laurel Highlands. Some of this may be lake-enhanced. Minor snow accumulations may not be out of the question on colder/elevated surfaces.

AREA B - Expect mostly rain, but as cold air filters in on the backside, the first flakes of the season may filter in these areas. Western PA will see some lake-enhanced snow/rain showers. Accumulations do not look to occur due to the warm surface temperatures.

Stay tuned for updates & remember, don't follow the hype you see online, especially pages posting 12"+ snowfall amounts from every snowy GFS run. 🙄

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
🌦️ Monday, November 9

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Monday! We will have an unsettled start to the workweek as we see a low-pressure system pass off to our north. This will allow for rain showers to pass through the northern parts of the state, especially in the morning. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler, in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

WINDY DAY... It will feel a bit windier than what we've seen lately. Expect wind gusts out of the northwest at 25 - 35 mph; isolated gusts greater than 40 mph will be possible, favoring the highest elevations. Issues are not generally expected.

🌧️The first weather graphic shows the rain probabilities throughout anytime during the daylight hours today. The probability does not determine duration or intensity, but the percentage chance that a given location may see rain today. (10-30%=isolated, 30-50%=scattered, 50-70%=numerous, 70-90%= widespread). Daylight hours are considered sunrise to sunset.

Stay tuned for updates & have a great day! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #November #Weather #Monday

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@jnphotographies Is this your first time experiencing November in Pennsylvania? 😂

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BLIZZARD THIS FRIDAY???

If you haven't seen any doomsday major snowstorm posts from select sources today, it is because the GFS now has a *RAIN* event and not a snow event. 😂 This is why you shouldn't trust sources posting snow maps 4 - 5+ days out, especially in November. We are lacking a true source of cold air to see a significant snow event. I know there were some comments asking me about November 2018, but that storm had a *strong* Arctic high in place ahead of it. This storm has no Arctic high to the north.

➡️Despite the hype lately, we could still have a notable system Friday and Saturday this upcoming week. For all, it could be a long-duration rain event, but some areas can change over to snowflakes at the end. If anyone sees any light accumulations, elevations over 2000ft would be favored, and lake-effect regions.

Stay tuned for updates!

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
🌤️ Sunday, November 8

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Sunday! We have a nicer day ahead of us with no precipitation (outside of a few lingering showers before 8 AM, generally in northern PA), and then we will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be a bit below to near average, with high temperatures ranging from the low to upper 50s. Overall, not too bad of an end to the weekend! Have a great Sunday!

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #November #Weather #Sunshine

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
🌦️ Saturday, November 7

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Saturday! We have an upper-level low that will move across the region today, providing a dose of moisture and a much colder air mass. High temperatures today will range from the low 40s to mid-50s, with the warmest spots in southeastern PA where they won't be really impacted by this low. The best chance to see precipitation will be across northwestern PA, somewhat enhanced by lake flow. A few locations may see some wet flakes and/or snow pellets, especially in higher elevations north of I-80, but no issues are expected. With the breezy conditions, it may feel colder than the actual air temperature, so make sure to layer up!

🌧️The first weather graphic shows the rain probabilities throughout the day today (~6:30 AM through ~5:30 PM). The probability does not determine duration or intensity, but the percentage chance that a given location may see rain today. (10-30%=isolated, 30-50%=scattered, 50-70%=numerous, 70-90%= widespread).

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Rain #Weather #November

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MUCH COLDER SATURDAY... 40S AND WET FLAKES FOR SOME?

After the recent warmth and sunny weather, we are about to get hit with reality as a cold upper-level low moves into the region to start off the weekend. Here is a look at the current simulated high temperatures for tomorrow, Saturday, November 7th, across Pennsylvania. High temperatures will be stuck in the 40s for most due to cloud cover and rain showers. A few wet flakes and snow pellets may even mix in north of I-80 and in the Laurel Highlands! Brrr!

#PAwx #Pennsylvania #November

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
🌦️ Friday, November 6

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Friday! We've made it to Friday, and it looks to be an unsettled day across portions of the state. We will see early impacts from our passing cold front across eastern Pennsylvania, with the steadiest rain expected within the Philadelphia region. And then, we will see our NEXT disturbance begin to move into western Pennsylvania, bringing an increased chance of showers into the mid-to-late afternoon. Temperatures will begin to fall today, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to mid-60s. We look to say goodbye to the 70s for some time as we see much cooler air filtering in this weekend!

🌧️The first weather graphic shows the rain probabilities throughout anytime during the daylight hours today. The probability does not determine duration or intensity, but the percentage chance that a given location may see rain today. (10-30%=isolated, 30-50%=scattered, 50-70%=numerous, 70-90%= widespread). Daylight hours are considered sunrise to sunset.

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Rain #Weather #November

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While it is still too early to discuss specifics, models are beginning to hint at a potential large cold air mass to move into the region in the 6 - 10 day timeframe. If this were to verify, we would see the coldest air mass since last winter move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. It is still too early to talk details, but the polar vortex split that occurred in early November may be to blame for this brief blast of colder air.

🛑❄️ STOP AND READ: With this cold air mass, you may begin to see hyped, erroneous snowfall posts, especially from clickbait pages. Remember, as we head into the winter season, snowfall maps 4 to 5+ days out are WRONG. Climatology does *NOT* support a winter storm with this pattern outside of the 3000+ peaks in the Northeast, and I've already seen some posts, even from meteorologists. Trust. Your. Sources. ⬅️⬅️⬅️

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Northeast #November

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ADDITIONAL RAIN TO COME...

While many have dried out this afternoon, a second round of rain moves in later this evening, during the overnight, and through the first half of the day tomorrow across eastern Pennsylvania. These will be scattered rain bands, but an additional 0.25 - 0.50" can be expected for a good chunk of the Philadelphia region & Lehigh Valley.

Localized heavier amounts of 1"+ cannot be ruled out; that is, if you get lucky enough to be stalled under a prolonged downpour. The heaviest rain will hold to the east in New Jersey and across New England. #PAwx #Rain

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RAIN IS BACK! While not a lot of it, many areas across the state saw their first measurable rain in nearly 3 weeks. This is not all, as we will see additional showers and maybe even a storm across eastern Pennsylvania later this evening and overnight. Looks like a nice band of rain went through portions of the Laurel Highlands, central Pennsylvania, and into portions of the Scranton region overnight and this morning.

How much rain have you picked up over the last 24 hours? #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Rain

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Pennsylvania Weather Daily
🌧️ Thursday, November 5

Good morning, Pennsylvania, happy Thursday! We finally have widespread precipitation on the map, and this will come as we see a slow-moving cold front move through the state. The best chance to see raindrops will be the farther east you are located, as this will be the main moisture axis. Temperatures will remain 10 to 20 degrees above average, into the mid-60s to low 70s. It will feel humid as well, with locations climbing dew points into the low to mid 60s!

The first weather graphic shows the rain probabilities throughout anytime during the daylight hours today. The probability does not determine duration or intensity, but the percentage a given location that may see rain today. (10-30%=isolated, 30-50%=scattered, 50-70%=numerous, 70-90%= widespread).

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Pennsylvania #Rain #Weather #November

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Craving that fall-like feel after the recent warmth? We'll see a pool of colder air move into the Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania this weekend, associated with an upper-level low. High temperatures on Saturday look to range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. And mostly 50s on Sunday. It will feel colder with the gusty winds expected.

Temperatures may return above average once again early to mid next week, before models are hinting at another much colder shot of air next weekend, with the European and American models even showing some snow potential in the higher elevations... We shall see! 👀

Stay tuned for updates! #PAwx #Fall #November

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PENNSYLVANIA RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

Rounds of showers will pass through the state tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. After a 3-week dry stretch, this is not a lot of rain, with most areas only expected to pick up between 0.10 - 0.30". Locally higher amounts upwards of 0.50" can be possible. While we haven't been wet recently, drought conditions will take longer than usual to set in, as our temperatures and sun angle is not as high as compared ot the middle of summer.

🌧️ Are you looking forward to the rain? Let me know in the comments! #PAwx