Price Action is KING: Romanian edition (adevarul trist)
1/ Bursa de la Bucuresti: indicele BET, sta la maxime istorice ~35.000 puncte in timp ce economia scartaie din mai toate incheieturile.
Un thread despre cum pretul nu a dat doi bani pe stiri sau fundamente. 👇🧵
100 weeks. A hundred times showing up, through noise and cycles.
Grateful to everyone who’s been here!
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The short-term $ETH playbook pre-post Fed rate decision (bookmark this):
GM,
We don't need 5 indicators, 10 pages of on-chain analysis, we need to keep things simple.
Scenario 1: ETHUSDT finds itself in a very good place for a swing long in terms of Risk/Reward. This might be the next Higher Low in this HH/HL bullish structure which has been printing since early August. I would still like to see a break above $4,780 + a new ATH to show that the buying momentum is still there.
Scenario 2: The above bullish scenario gets invalidated if, somehow, we lose the $4,200 area on daily close. At that point, the chart flips neutral and only under the $4,000 area on a weekly close can we have more bearishness and downside continuation, but as of now, that is secondary.
That's a wrap, if you enjoy this type of content like it and retweet it and stop listening to larps with moonboy targets or doomporn.
Onwards 🫡
How NOT to trade altcoins - the thread
As the altcoin market is heating up, is time to bring out this #evergreen post.
Read it, save it, share it with others 🫡
When and how to take profits: the not-so-sexy thread
This won’t be the kind of post that gets clicks or hype, but it might be the one that actually saves you down the line. It’s not a doom take or a moonboy fantasy, is just something I’ve learned through experience and what I’ve seen play out repeatedly around me.
In my community, this question came up a lot, especially from younger traders and investors. The way I managed my portfolio last cycle didn’t just give me good returns, it gave me more freedom for my mental capital and that’s one of the most underrated things out there. That calm in the storm helped me make better, more rational decisions then and ever since.
So here’s the deal: let’s say you caught a monster trade be it early allocation, meme, whatever and now you’re looking at those magical “life-changing” gains. First off, they’re not gains until you lock them in. I don’t care what your PnL says, until you hit that withdraw button, it’s all just numbers on a screen.
And no, this is not a diamond hands competition. Get your head out of the fantasy land and into real capital management. I’ve had tens, maybe hundreds of DMs in the last 5 years from people who round-tripped six or even seven figures because they never took a dime out. Don’t be them.
Here’s the framework that worked for me:
Let’s say your monthly expenses are $5,000 (can be more can be less, take this as a benchmark). Take that number and cover two years of living costs, then add on 30% extra for inflation, unexpected situations, etc
That’s $5,000 x 24 = $120,000. Add 30% on top and you’re looking at $156,000.
That money? You bank it. No excuses. Move it to a separate expenses account, a cold wallet, somewhere it won’t get touched for anything else. That becomes your runway. You’ll use it to pay your monthly expenses and free your brain from survival mode.
For the usual hater suspects: this is not a “take profit now” post. I’m not saying we topped. I’m not calling anything on Bitcoin or the market.
This is just a grown-ass approach to crypto profits in a world where selling is seen as weakness and holding to zero is glorified like some badge of honor. Fuck that. You’re here to win long-term, not to gamble everything away for clout.
Get your foundation in place and the rest becomes 10x easier to navigate.
Retweet this, so others can get a balanced reminder when things turn hot again 🫡
Bullish PO3 Bitcoin – $92/93k area being tested
GM,
Six weeks ago, I mentioned this Bullish PO3 formation on Bitcoin.
At that time, this setup was potential, but now $BTC is breaking above the 92/93k area and entering the last phase.
Remember: PriceAction is KING! 🫡
From Liquidity Euphoria to Hangover phase
1/ Since early 2023, I’ve been aggressively long U.S. equities, Bitcoin & the liquidity-fueled soft landing narrative.
But now, the regime has changed. Bookmark this for when the headlines catch up, a thread 🧵👇:
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Stock market crash? DON'T believe the doomers (bookmark this post):
GM,
It seems we’re off to a spicy start since US index futures opened red, especially $NQ , due to...get this, more technological advancement from China's DeepSeek AI.
If your timeline is full of doomers, bear porn and people calling for black swans (as if black swans happen when people call them), here are some cold chart numbers:
1. *DXY* is about to lose the 107 monthly support area, which will mean the first new Low since the last rally in September 2024 started, essentially confirming a change of structure from bullish to bearish.
2. *US10Y yields* are about to lose the 4.55% area, which is a massive monthly support. If/when that happens, we will see a break lower from the current RisingWedge.
3. *S&P 500* is still bullish, even short term, as long as we don’t have a weekly close under 5,665 with continuation lower.
4. *Bitcoin higher time-frame uptrend* is still intact as long as BTC stays above the 88/90k area on weekly close.
All of the above still support a risk-on type of market, and for now, this seems like an overreaction from market participants.
Can this be a top or local top? Of course it can, but even Nasdaq, which got hit the most, is still bullish on higher time frame above the 20,300/20,700 area. If someone constantly called for tops last 12-16 months and the markets kept going higher, ask yourself what's the point of paying too much attention on those views?!
I'm always open for debates, as I don't think that I or anyone holds the absolute truth, so let me know in the comments what is your opinion on this?
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