Picks by Joe

Analytics and models

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

To my loyal 54 followers, this is going to serve as a bit of an NFL season wrap up thread.

The model had a 1-3 Conference Championship round.
As a whole the confidence model sits at 93-68-6. Good for 18.2u of profit and an 11.3% ROI. Another s/o to @Willboyd970 for the idea.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

Overall if I had to force plays for the weekend, the model is most confident in the KC/BUF over and the PHI/WAS under. Best of luck to all and go Chiefs

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

The model once again went 1-0 on plays last week and moves to 8-2 the last 4 weeks. Unfortunately, for the championship round the model does not have any plays but I’ll run through the markets for each game.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

BUF @ KC (-1.5) o/u 47.5. Model has KC -2 here so a slight lean to KC. Model has this around 51 but low confidence. For what it's worth the last two games in this rivalry have landed right on 51

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

BAL @ BUF (+1) o/u 51.5. No official play in this one unfortunately but the model has the Ravens as the better team by a decent margin. Also leans over. Ravens are the top team in model rankings with BUF only 6th.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

The model went 1-0 on plays in the WC round and moves to 7-2 the last 3 weeks. For the divisional round the model has just 1 play which is PHI -5.5, but I’ll still run through every game with the models leans.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

LA @ PHI (-5.5) o/u 43.5. Model loves this Philly team and is rolling with them again here with a play on -5.5. The total is almost dead on with the model projecting 44 points in this one.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

MIN @ LA (-1.5) o/u 47. Model leans MIN and the over here. Model has been pretty surprisingly low on LA but the rest last week should help.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

For the divisional round the model has just 1 play which is PHI -4.5, but I’ll still run through every game with the models leans.

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

WAS @ TB (-3) o/u 50.5. Model leans to the Commies here and to the over. Model has this as a bit of a toss up. Experience factor for TB will be helpful but they’ve kind of limped to the finish. No strong feeling here personally

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

Alright fellas. The model won its sole play last week and moves to 6-2 the last two. Still well down for the year but slightly above break even since the changes late in the year. Hopefully this latest run keeps up for the playoffs.

Going to post a separate divisional thread

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

Model went 5-2 this past week for the best week of the season so maybe things will click heading into the playoffs.

For this week it’s hard to know how hard teams will be trying. I’ve filtered some plays for that reason but the model does like:

NO/TB o43.5

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

Late getting to this this week but here are the plays. Model has not been good but posting through it

[Picks by Joe @PBJ_model]

Plays for the week. Let’s ride.