PD 🍓

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

I've decided to make all my draft data public to get more eyeballs on it - below you'll find the 1000+ play archives of Drake Maye/Bryce Young/CJ Stroud, as well as ARich/Levis' more limited archives

I'll be adding to this as the 2024 cycle continues

(THREAD)

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@smiley_moth @PranavSriraman …the baseline from 2018-20 is that he was an outlier and gapped 2nd by as much as the gap between 2nd and 11th so he plummeted there too?

he’s fallen off about the same in late down epa per dropback and more in success rate than the same on early downs?

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@905Kar I do remember the trajectory from wentz was very bad to end 2019

however herbert had a 55 grade from week 10 to the end of the year last season, so I'm not sure that's too dissimilar either

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@KingDaboll there’s some real wentz-isms here

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@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD but this goes away after 7 yards and in these spots, the EPA are 0.17 and 0.11 better per sequence on average if running first

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD teams actually tend to not change box counts if an opponent is running more on 3rd and medium to long, opting to instead replace a LB for DB

so matching my intuition actually 3rd and 6/7 led to a 67% and 60% conversion rate if running first, compared to 45 and 41 if passing

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD but I'm theorizing that the data also implies that running more in expected passing situations (3rd and medium to long as I mentioned) is another concept that coaches should mess around with

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD big issue meaning the mismatch in rates of passing and running based on the efficiency, within the buckets in the chart you posted - the data clearly signals that we should throw more in "unexpected" passing situations

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD hence maybe a way to “fix” the issues we have is to somewhat invert the selections as compared to current coaching intuitions, and make up for less immediate conversions on 3rd downs with more 4th down attempts

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD my thought is that a big issue with the distribution somewhat stems from a fear of 4th down go’s - if teams were more willing to go on 4th downs, they might run on 3rd and 6s and 3rd and 7s to set up 4th and short since the likelihood of that outcome is actually relatively good

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD worth testing, I might try to do some math on it if I have time

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD second, could the pass rate vs expected breakdown in that chart not also imply a poor distribution of run calls vs pass? i.e. maybe we should run more on late downs rather than early, throw more on early downs when teams are still a bit too heavy defensively

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@capperpancakes @CeeDeePlsTD two questions - do you think injury probability accrues across a season with more dropbacks, or within games, some combo of both? the potential for catastrophic injury is one we want to avoid which I’m not certain is factored, unless you think it’s negligible

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@MattWaldman matt, I’m being a little pedantic but it is Jaxon not Jaxson

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@NoFilm_Analysis how much more would you guess smith is worth than the 1.02 (let's say becker), in a rebuilding context since almost all 1.01 holders this year will be rebuilders?

[PD 🍓 @PD34_]

@BuffaloDeee @SoftlyAugust might have been cool if they sat him then brought him back later à la carolina with bryce, just reset his rhythm a bit

obviously that didn’t happen either - shouldn’t be surprising from that clown show organization tho

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@FantasyKash I mean I love dart but if you wish

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@FantasyKash jalen hurts pfp for a week for you if you lose, caleb pfp for a week for me if I lose