Ducking Hell

Califoregonton, here we come…

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

Nobody can truly figure out the future revenue forecast for $ASTS yet.

Looking at future events, my assumptions are:

Announce launch schedule: $70
Get 1st 5 satellites in the air: $100
1st quarter of revenue: $120
2nd GEO revenue start: $150

And then we should have data…

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@techinvestoor @REdebtlawyer The truth is…the bottleneck at this point is still the production cadence.

The launch capacity is actually still the secondary concern.

Probably most of my issue is I just don’t trust Elon.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@tuff_4r My 2 cents:

If it blows up, the stock goes below $50 and won’t see $80 for a LONG time.

If it doesn’t blow up, it stays about the same. Getting the satellites up is priced in. Everyone assumes they’re going to go up. Getting them up in a TIMELY basis is what’s weighing it…

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@REdebtlawyer @techinvestoor The policy would change if their main D2D competition, in a space where they want to replace telcos, is temporarily single-sourced to SpaceX launches.

Elon isn’t a guy who plays by the rules.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@REdebtlawyer @techinvestoor Why would Elon care? He’s not going to get stopped by anyone. Any legal fight serves its own purpose as a delay…

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@REdebtlawyer @techinvestoor 3 years ago!

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@REdebtlawyer @techinvestoor Amazon has way more satellites, and isn’t close to creating into a revenue generating constellation like ASTS is.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@REdebtlawyer @techinvestoor They just picked up $75B.

You think Elon is the tower of ethical behavior?

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@REdebtlawyer @techinvestoor I would suspect that after the launches on the already-signed contracts, they won’t do more.

When SpaceX was one of many providers, take the money. When they’re the only one— delay them.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@LJC_Capital @CatSE___ApeX___ But why would they do more than what they signed previously?

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@AccountFor57322 @corey407woc Amen

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@jsitzler_ @jon_d_conqueroo @spacanpanman Yeah, but SpaceX can significantly delay the timeline…the other carriers aren’t ready yet.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@theonzali620 It depends.

Is it the first day that ASTS has its full constellation up? Are they past the first 45 promised in 2025?

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@Nate_angling @disgusting_pleb How is that not already priced in?

The stock is at $80 but the assumption is they can’t get satellites off the ground?

It’ll be a little blip.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@max_williamson It’s a Double top, and it’s headed down.

I’m deep in the stock, but I don’t understand at all how a 3 satellite launch isn’t already priced in.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@stocktradingleo It’s going to fully round trip

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@vin11z @disgusting_pleb Yeah. Why won’t they stall the competition. They have leverage over ASTS now.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@ShawarmaCapital Your research is obviously crazy thorough. Are there any other Twitter accounts you’re following who mention $MRLN often (and credibly)?

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@jon_d_conqueroo @spacanpanman ISRO is one at a time
No timeline exists on the others.
Blue Origin is down for 6 months, at least.

They had a two year lead. It’s down to one.

And I don’t know exactly how it will play out, but SpaceX isn’t going to allow them to build the full constellation.

[Ducking Hell @PMccrenshaw]

@SPandelaer12742 @spacanpanman Round tripping isn’t winning.

And it’s a double top. It’s going to round trip.