Prediction Watch

Unofficial ombudsman of the prediction market industry.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@mattkalish @Flupnolide Yeah, hear you there. Would rather that is the discourse in convos with folks like MGC though. As tilting as it is to watch Kalshi tout SGP’s as not sports betting, it’s equally tilting to see OSB lead with RG in limits discussions and not just say a pursuit of higher NGR

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@mattkalish @Flupnolide I think the point Chris is making is that you’re right. As a market maker he didn’t/won’t let counterparties past post, hit palps, etc. At the same time, he isn’t pretending that his actions to prevent that are in the name of a greater good, he’s self-interested… as are OSB’s

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@Nostroah Believe that it’s true.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

Let’s not let the Kalshi slander detract us from the true source of corruption in gambling: Victor Rocha & the tribes

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@_rainerds @oaktoebark @mattkalish Rfq’s can be executed via clob. On your own exchange.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@_rainerds @oaktoebark @mattkalish How are you everywhere? Also, this isn’t really true. All RFQ’s are executed on an orderbook, they just don’t rest on a clob. Except for when they do, which also happens rather frequently.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@oaktoebark @_rainerds @mattkalish Lol, my point is that that was exactly what Matt was saying… just phrased differently

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@oaktoebark @_rainerds @mattkalish I have quite literally no idea what you mean by this

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@oaktoebark @_rainerds @mattkalish His point is that counterparty ID is visible to the mm and not the taker. I’m not even in the camp that this is wrong, but let’s not misconstrue the point.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@roundrobin42 biggest rort of all time (getting rd 4 Armstrong pass with four matches) gone at the same time with 2x the prices on the 2-math sessions. RIP.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@Gugabed @ShipTheJustice @mattkalish @roundrobin42 @dan_bernstein_ Hey guys… hate to be that guy but we’re missing a pretty important reason why KT’s share declined here lol

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@Nostroah @Kalshi I’m sure OSB has a much lower rate of male to female deposits. Does this mean that PM’s are winning over male customers? Must be bearish!

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@goldenpants013 @mattkalish Spending my ten minute punishment backoff for not wanting to cross with toxic resting combos productively

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

Wait until @mattkalish finds out that Kalshi solicits mention markets strikes from its sharpest customers, creating structural adverse selection, and then uses their input in settling disputes over the strikes they chose

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@mattkalish If only you saw the wash trading from DMM’s in combo markets

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@Nostroah 1) you are wrong

2) they have truly taken that to heart, wash trading galore!!

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@mattkalish Is this true though? I’m not sure KT is smart enough to profile, thereby Kalshi and it’s affiliated entities aren’t limiting or reducing interaction with the exchange. Facilitating what happens on that exchange, of course, but they can still request the quote. Also, no RFQ for ML

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@mattkalish I don’t think that’s necessarily true? I think the standard he wants is that no single counterparty can dictate a users access to the market ala OSB. With that being said, he’s an idiot, so who knows. The rampant wash trading on Kalshi to drive reported vol a better target imo.

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

@mattkalish I don’t think anyone is saying that isn’t happening, that’s my point. Selig having no clue what happens in the industry he oversees is widely known, as are Kalshi’s willful facilitation of what you describe.