富士山下看樱花

$BTC$ETHcrypto
币安返佣 ：

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@daidaibtc 不管金银还是科技，现在都难做啊

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@Bitfatty 睡醒收菜了，肥哥

[宝玉 @dotey]

Codex 的野心，MCP 和 Skill 的下一步

这段时间我在密集使用 Codex App、Cursor 等 Agent 应用，有件事越来越觉得有意思。

去年大家争的是谁家模型更强，今年争的好像变成了谁家窗口右侧更好用。

Codex、Claude 桌面版、Cursor 3.0、TRAE SOLO，这几家最顶尖的 Agent，在完全没有协商的情况下，几乎同时收敛到了同一个界面布局：左侧是项目和会话列表，中间是和 Agent 的对话，右侧是工作区，放着文件浏览、网页预览、文件变更审查这些功能。

肯定不是相互之间的抄袭，更像是当前 Agent 交互的最优解。

【1】为什么是三栏

传统 Chatbot 只需要两栏，左边会话历史，右边对话窗口，你问它答，用完走人。

到了 Agent 时代，Agent 能自己写代码、改文件、调工具了。它做完之后，你得看看有没有做对——右侧工作区就是为这件事出现的。

但这只是第一阶段。

随着用户越来越多时间是在指挥 Agent，打开 VSCode 这类专业工具的时间自然越来越少。那个问题迟早会冒出来：Agent 帮你写完代码、做完 PPT，你想微调几个字，还要专门切出去打开另一个软件？

没有人愿意这样。用户的自然期待是：能不能直接在 Agent 里改？这也是目前 Codex App 呼声最高的功能之一（另一个呼声高的是手机版，马上要出了）。

于是各家开始悄悄升级右侧工作区，让它从只能看文件编辑记录，变成了一个多功能区。Codex 在 4 月 16 日的大版本更新里，右侧工作区的改动幅度是所有功能里最大的。

交互细节上各家略有差异。Codex 和 Cursor 用 Tab 切换，Claude 用浮动面板。我自己用下来觉得 Codex 最顺手，Claude 的浮动面板方案设计感有余、实用性不足，迟早要改。

【2】Codex 的真正野心

但如果只把这个变化读成“设计界面进化”，就低估 Codex 了。

Codex 4 月大版本发布时的口号是“Codex for (almost) everything”——几乎任何任务都能做。你可以把它理解成一句广告口号，但更像是一个产品方向的声明。

要兑现这句话，Codex 不能只是个擅长写代码的 Agent，它必须能处理各种文件格式，支持各领域的专业工作流，还要让用户能在它里面完成全程闭环，包括最后的人工微调。

目前 Codex 还做不到最后一步：生成之后无法编辑，代码、Markdown、PPTX 都不行。这可能是产品上有意为之的克制，可能是技术上还没跑通，也可能是在等一个统一的解决方案出现。

我猜是第三种。

【3】MCP 和 Skill 都只解决了一半

要理解 Codex 在等什么，得先想清楚 Agent 能力拼图里现在差哪一块。

MCP 解决了“连接”问题：Agent 通过统一规范接入各种工具，数据库、日历、代码仓库，都能打通。

Agent Skills 解决了“怎么做”的问题：Agent 学会了它没训练过的领域知识和最佳实践，比如怎么写特定风格的文章，怎么处理某类复杂任务。

这两件事做得都还不错。但有一块缺口始终没补上：用户的二次编辑。

你让 AI 写完一篇文章，最后还是要自己打开编辑器改几处，毕竟很多时候最后那 5% 的精准度，只有自己动手才能到位。就算将来 AI 再聪明，它也做不到百分百的懂你，还是少不了要手动去做修改。

于是最近 Markdown 编辑器又火了，各种 Vibe Coding 出来的 Markdown 产品满天飞。

但 Codex 不会自己做一个 Markdown 编辑器，因为每个人的偏好都不一样，做出来永远有人不满意；更何况它也不可能把每个垂直领域的专业编辑器都集成进来。

最合理的路，是插件机制。

【4】下一步：Agent 版 App Store

把 Agent 做成平台，让社区来贡献插件，就像 VSCode 和 Chrome 那样。

Codex 只需要聚焦在 Agent 调度这一层，把文件预览、二次编辑、垂直领域的专业能力都交给插件来扩展。用户按需安装，做设计的装设计插件，写作者装写作插件。

插件机制还能顺手解决一个长期没有答案的问题：Skill 没办法商业化。

我自己的 baoyu-skills 快 2 万 Star 了，但从中赚到的钱是 $0。Skill 这东西几乎是透明的，对 Agent 透明，对人也透明，复刻成本极低，不管你写得再好，护城河都很浅。

插件不一样。App Store 和 Chrome 插件市场已经跑通了一套收费和版权保护机制，把它移植到 Agent 插件市场完全可行。好插件可以收费，开发者才有持续打磨的动力，生态才真正能转起来。

Codex 现在已经有了一个非常原始的插件市场。从这里到成熟的收费插件生态，还有很长的路，但方向是对的。

想做这件事的不止 Codex 一家。Cursor 我能看到类似的影子。唯独 Claude Code 和 Cowork，目前没看到这个方向的产品迹象——也许他们不屑于做，也许只是还没走到这一步。

【5】留给中小团队的窗口

如果 Codex 真的跑通了插件生态，对中小团队意味着什么？

除了自己做一个垂直 Agent，还有另一条路：在 Codex 这样的平台上做插件。不用自己搭 Agent 调度层，不用解决 Token 接入，用户分发也靠平台。你只需要专注在那个“最后一公里”——帮用户把 Agent 生成的结果处理好、编辑好、用得顺手。

这个窗口不会开太久。先进去的能拿到冷启动红利，晚进去的只剩存量竞争。

时间点不会太远，也许就在这几个月。

Codex 的野心摆在那里，“几乎任何任务”这个口号要真正兑现，插件机制是绕不过去的一步。如果 OpenAI 在这件事上继续犹豫，那才是真的失误。

你觉得这个插件生态最后会是哪家先跑通？或者说你觉得有更适合 Agent 的产品表现形式？欢迎留言分享！

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

唉，看到抖音上那个送了三年外卖攒钱买了台 a6，觉得有点可惜，不过这可能也是大部分人的选择，赚钱攒下来买个车子 or 房子，不过我认为一个男人最好的青春年华获得的全部钱换来了车子或房子，因此背负上车贷房贷等，等到三十岁被生活压力摧残再无精力去实现自身阶级跨越是比较情绪化的事情

[子时 @silverfang88]

crypto A股 港股都有所谓的板块轮动

从更大的人类金融版图来看
国家汇率、房产、贵金属、股票
原油、大类商品、粮食、畜牧

很明显我们刚刚经历了
非常激烈的板块流动性斗争时期
或者换句话说就是人类注意力竞争

现在世界话语权还是在老登手里
之后会转移到现在的中登手里
老登会猜年轻人会关注什么

新资产和新业务的上涨背后
这代老登觉得年轻人会追逐什么趋势
比如美国婴儿潮一代和中国的计划生育

现在看就是老登们觉得
未来一代必然是人人拥抱AI+的
所以我们这一代人
在任何时间梭哈AI
直到在下一代人大规模应用之前
都不算晚

BTC还没涨起来的原因也很简单
就是老登们有分歧
很多觉得年轻人会抛弃这个资产
有判断力的人都去了AI
现在crypto就缺少一个
改变他们想法的天才
defi是、NFT算是、铭文算半个
meme其实是ERC20协议
衍生出来的，这也是

所以投资思维逻辑本质也是崩老头逻辑
理解有权有势决定板块的老登们的想法
然后顺着他们的逻辑去埋伏年轻人

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@Bitfatty 探花肥？

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@luo79848031 @xtony1314 行情便秘也能怪他？跌破不继续跌给你慢拉，tony 又不是狗庄他有什么办法

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@fupenglondon 你的战绩这么菜，按照你的观点前几次去做的人没有一个能赚到钱，还有脸在这里大言不惭的指导别人，还到一定维度听懂😂，装神棍倒是挺厉害，水平那么次😂

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@Btc_kking 我刷 dy 好几次刷到你和别人做你的视频了

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial.

There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us "the passionate minds shaping the future of finance."

600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President.

The distance is my best work.

I am the reason these events are unrelated.

World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence.

Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated.

Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated.

Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated.

Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated.

Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard.

On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well.

The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders.

Steven Witkoff is the President's Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President's fraud trial.

His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded.

The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency.

Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest "complete nonsense." Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name.

On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President's family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President's assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio.

Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job.

600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access.

A congressman called us the world's most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25.

My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper.

The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family.

I am the reason these events are unrelated.

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@kevin_sun923 梯子或者服务器问题

[Joshua | MOZAIK 🇰🇷 @JoshuaDeuk]

I think we’re in the late stage of the dot-com equivalent cycle.
Max extraction already happened. Most retail has left.
Exchanges are now listing TradFi indices and commodities instead of new tokens.

But if you think back to dot-com, some infrastructure survived — and became everything.

I think crypto will be the same.

We don’t have many, but we do have real products, real founders, real builders.
And institutional rails are being laid quietly in the background.

Easy 100x in 2 months? Gone.
But is the opportunity for crypto to still produce 100x returns gone?
No.

Personally, I think there are 2 sectors where real opportunity still exists

---------------------------------------------

1. Prediction markets
We’re in a gambling supercycle.

This isn’t just “markets are boring so people want to gamble.”
That’s part of it, but we’re now in a narrative-driven world — even in TradFi and commodities.

Betting participation in the US jumped from 25% → 30% in a year.
Driven by Gen Z (34%) and Millennials (42%).

These are the most narrative-sensitive cohorts.

They can’t outwork inflation.
AI is eating jobs.
Real estate is out of reach.
So they bet on outcomes.

Betting = investing is getting bigger, not smaller.

---------------------------------------------
2. Agent infrastructure (Agent commerce)

With tools like Claude and OpenClaw, a solo founder or small team can now build a unicorn faster than ever.

Production cost collapsed.
Within 3 years, most people will have their own AI agents.
The real opportunity is the infra that connects those agents to users or Agent to Agent.

That’s where value accrues.

Crypto is the perfect funding layer for this.
ICOs might come back in a new form.

Bear markets are where edges are built —
airdrops, research, networking, early conviction.

Easy money is gone.

But if you have edge and a long-term mindset,
the next 100x is still there — just over years, not months.

[TingHu♪ @TingHu888]

大家应该能发现，再顶尖的机构，也没有能够正确做趋势分析的人员或者能够做出正确趋势判断的决策人员？为何？一个是身在庐山中，不识瀑布真面目；一个是他们相信自己能够改变市场；一个是船太大了，押注太多了，无法掉头，否则会崩塌的更厉害。简而言之，要么不懂，要么盲目自信，要么身不由己。

[逍遥XTony @xtony1314]

做对了，拿不住，

是不是理解了，交易能不能赚钱和技术无关？

交易 真正的功夫，在 K 线之外：
等待的耐心，
开仓的勇气，
斩仓的决心，
持仓的定力。

请默写 800 遍。😁😁😁

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@diamondhandjs 厉害

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@Xinjue1 @0x_ZHUANG 放你妈的屁 allin 粪坑币圈，你把你老冯 in 在粪坑里吧，全尼玛诈骗项目

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@Bitfatty 爸爸

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@okzczc 你是不是开系统代理，把 Windows 自带的代理给打开了才导致不开没有网，去系统里面把代理关掉就可以了

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@IamRamenPanda 好蠢的样子🤦‍♂️

[富士山下看樱花 @POPCAT35993]

@GCsheng @CuiMao 深大的兄弟--风无向