Paul Triolo

Unflinching look @ nexus: tech/geopolitics. Digital Econ, Semis, AI, Greentech, Partner, China/Tech Policy Lead DGA ASG, ASPI CCA. Substack: AI Decrypted

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

DeepSeek's New Data Center Hiring Signals a Bigger Shift in China's AI Infrastructure Race
Recent job postings are revealing about the directionality of the firm's AI infrastructure strategy
A short thread. 🧵

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

@nathaniel_sher Nice.

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

@tphuang @fantopy_mateo Yes, it became clear when the makeup of the business delegation with Trump solidified. But we were aware of this much earlier of course. Everyone has been focused on samarium, yttrium, terbium, and dysprosium, but the scope of concern and impact has always been much broader.

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

@teortaxesTex Yes, it is all very aspirational and constitutes signalling to local governments and industry, but how it actually plays out will depend on a host of factors beyond government exhortation...

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

@VerickWilliam Complicated problem. Depends on a lot of things....

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

Notice essay does not mention REEs and magnets....Interesting that story in comment drops same day. Chinese export controls on REEs/magnets are a direct response to the controls that Dario advocates be expanded. They will begin to affect TSMC/Samsung/SK soon. Let that sink in.

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

#DarioAIEssayWatch love the Treebeard reference...

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

Two companies in Japan, Showa Denko Kanto and Central Glass, which together account for about 25% of the global capacity for tungsten hexafluoride, have officially notified major chip manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC: their inventories will only last until June, and production will be permanently stopped from July 1.
https://t.co/pgLR4HzGJQ

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

...five perennial policy areas that need re-imagining in an AI world: regulation and public safety, macroeconomics and tax policy, scientific innovation, the balance of power between state and society, and geopolitics. I will speak primarily in terms of US policy since Anthropic is an American company, but most of my recommendations are also relevant to the rest of the world.

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

#DarioAIEssayWatch love the Treebeard reference...

[Dario Amodei @DarioAmodei]

Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap: https://t.co/Lh6PWae178

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

We now, globally and collectively, need to activate a slow and rickety policy apparatus to deal with risks and opportunities that are going to compound surprisingly quickly from here. Many policymakers are showing increased openness to taking action, and it's been encouraging to see our peers come around to the same positions we've been advocating for over the past few years.

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

#TheDeepSeekEffect

[Tech Buzz China @TechBuzzChina]

DeepSeek-V4 inference cost is down 73% vs V3.2, thanks to a self-developed algorithm adapted to Huawei Ascend 950PR chips. Cache-hit price now sits at 0.025 RMB per million tokens (~$0.0035) (roughly 1/14960 of GPT-5.5 long-context version). The result: a dev team that spent $500/month on Claude Sonnet now pays $50/month using DeepSeek.

Meanwhile, Zhipu raised API prices three times in 2026, each 30%+. Tencent Cloud CodeBuddy enterprise edition up 154%. Alibaba Cloud raised AI compute/storage 5-34% in March. Video generation costs per 15-second clip have risen from 0.65 RMB to 5 RMB (~$0.09 to ~$0.69) (6.7x).

These two strategies reflect opposite bets on value capture: DeepSeek builds a developer ecosystem through cost engineering, hoping to lock in workflows before competitors catch up on domestic chip optimization. Enterprise vendors raise prices, betting that integrated tool suites (CodeBuddy, WorkBuddy) create enough switching costs to retain customers.

DeepSeek's cost lead may close in 2-3 months as competitors optimize domestic stacks. That makes the current advantage a window, not a moat. Enterprise price increases carry their own risk: Doubao MAU declined ~6.1M after price hikes, suggesting low tolerance among Chinese users.

Which bet holds: a developer ecosystem built on a ticking clock, or an enterprise suite facing churn on every price update?

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

SunSirs: Japan Shuts Down 25% of Global WF6 Capacity: A Major Supply Chain Blow - ChemNet
From January 2026, China's high-purity tungsten powder exports to Japan have basically disappeared.

60% to 70% of the production cost of tungsten hexafluoride comes from tungsten powder, which has increased by about 325% year-on-year. Japanese companies have endured a five-month inventory, but they couldn't wait for the alternative raw material to be implemented.
https://t.co/pgLR4HzGJQ

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

Yes, this is what happens when countries choose to weaponize supply chains without a full understanding of the interlinkages between critical inputs and misunderestimate the willingness of targeted countries to respond in kind....

[David Lee @DavidLe76335983]

Two Japanese firms just shut down their production line, cutting 25% of the world’s tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) capacity. This is what Chinese critical minerals dominance looks like in action — slowly choking allies’ high-tech economies

Kanto Denka Kogyo (sometimes referenced with Showa Denko ties) and Central Glass have notified big chipmakers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC: inventories run out in June, lines shut for good from July 1. Boom — 2,200 tons of annual global WF₆ capacity gone. This specialized gas is essential for depositing ultra-thin tungsten layers in advanced semiconductors (3D NAND, DRAM, logic chips). Without it, fabs slow or stop

Why? China controls ~80% of global tungsten supply and refining. Beijing tightened export controls and licensing on strategic minerals (tungsten included) — hitting Japan hard. Shipments to Japan have plunged, raw material costs spiked, and these specialty gas producers can’t keep operating profitably or at all. Japanese firms were high-quality, reliable suppliers that Korea and others depended on for ~80% of their WF₆ in some cases

This isn’t random. Japanese PM Takaichi hostile posturing against China and plan to remilitarize Japan brought about Chinese sanction of dual use critical minerals (tungsten, rare earths, etc.) to Japanese companies. Higher costs, supply chaos, lost competitiveness, and eventual factory pain ripple through the semiconductor chain. Auto, electronics, defense… all feel it downstream.

Japan’s been diversifying and stockpiling, but decades of over-reliance on Chinese inputs make this a slow bleed. Allies need to accelerate onshoring, friend-shoring, and alternative processing FAST. Relying on an adversary for the guts of your chip industry isn’t strategy — it’s vulnerability

The “just-in-time” global supply chain was efficient until it wasn’t. Now it’s a national security risk. Wake-up call for anyone still sleeping on critical minerals

https://t.co/KLyOokj2CC

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

@DavidLe76335983 yes, this is what happens when countries choose to weaponize supply chains without a full understanding of the interlinkages and the willingness of targeted countries to respond in kind....

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

@DavidSacks @stratechery No, David and Ben, this is not/not about the IPO, you need to reassess and actually talk to people, both very very wrong here....

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

I am pleased to announce the Nomination of very Highly Respected Jay Clayton, former Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the former Head of Sullivan & Cromwell, one of the most prominent and successful Law Firms anywhere in the World, and the current United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, to be the next Director of National Intelligence and, importantly, to serve in my Cabinet. Few people anywhere in the Legal Community are respected at the level of Jay. I encourage the United States Senate to confirm Jay as soon as possible. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
https://t.co/8o6hSZnHHZ

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

#ChinaEmbodiedAIWatch

[tphuang @tphuang]

Alibaba Cloud announces support for embodied AI product from 9 companies including:
Vivo, Honor, Hisense, Reality, Looki, Ezviz, Teen, SoundCore & Coocaa

Mostly using Qwen 3.6/3.7 or Wan 2.7
Qwen is the LLM of choice for embodied AI due to multi-modal support, compact size & integration into Ali's wider AI & cloud infrastructure.