PTS

Tracking prediction markets with a rules-based framework.

Every position logged. Every result public.

Currently: FIFA World Cup 2026 ⚽📈

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

Welcome to PTS Market Pulse.

We track prediction markets using a rules-based framework.

Starting with the FIFA World Cup.

🟢 Position #1

Argentina to Win the World Cup @ 8%

Every position logged.
Every result public.

Full Match Day -2 report attached.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

We passed on the Rams Super Bowl market at 12% because the edge was too thin.

The division market was different.

Same team. Better price. Cleaner expression of the thesis.

Buy the mispricing.
Update the fair value.
Sell the repricing.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS NFL WEEK 4 UPDATE 🚨

Two division moves worth highlighting:

🦅 Atlanta Falcons — NFC South
Entry: 24%
Current market: 39%
Contract move: +62.5%

🐏 Los Angeles Rams — NFC West
New position: 28%
PTS fair value: 32–34%
Position size: 1.0% of bankroll

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

The market has caught up fast on the Falcons, but the underlying division picture improved too — so we’ve raised fair value and are holding the full position for now rather than trimming simply because it’s profitable.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

📊 PTS Scorecard
Closed-position ROIC: +60.7%
Open positions: 5
Capital deployed: 7.75%
Cash reserve: 92.25%

Still the same framework:

Buy the mispricing.
Add only when the thesis still holds.
Sell the repricing.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS NFL WEEK 3 UPDATE 🚨

🐦‍⬛ Baltimore Ravens — Super Bowl
Original entry: 7%
Added: 6%
Blended entry: ~6.6%
Current market: 8%
Total position: 2.5% of bankroll

The thesis held while the price fell, so we added. One win later, the market repriced back toward fair value.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

⚡ Chargers — Super Bowl
Current market: 1%

No add. The price fell, but the underlying information changed too. PTS fair value was cut sharply, so we’re holding rather than blindly averaging down.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS POSITION UPDATE — BALTIMORE ADD 🚨

🐦‍⬛ Ravens — Super Bowl Winner

Original entry: 7%
Added today: 6%
New total position: 2.5% of bankroll
Blended entry: ~6.6%
PTS fair value: 8.5–9.0%

The market moved lower. Our thesis didn’t.

So we added.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

📊 PTS closed-position metrics
✅ Full exits: 1
✅ Partial realizations: 1
📈 Closed-position ROIC: +60.7%

Buffalo: +62.5%
Cincy trimmed half: ~+55%

Current approach remains the same:

Buy the mispricing. Sell the repricing. Keep dry powder ready.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS NFL — WEEK 2 MOVES 🚨

🐅 Cincinnati AFC North
Entry: 31%
Trim: 50% at ~48%
Realized return on trimmed half: ~+55%

Cincy moved to 2-0, Baltimore slipped to 1-1, and the market repriced almost exactly into our updated fair-value range.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

BUY ALERT

🐦‍⬛ Baltimore Ravens — Super Bowl Winner
Entry: 7%
PTS fair value: 8.5–9.0%
Position size: 1.5% of bankroll

The Week 2 loss reopened a discount we think is too large relative to Baltimore’s underlying team quality.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

Why Cincy?

We see a real gap between the market and our division fair value, and we’re willing to buy before today’s Houston game rather than wait for a “perfect” entry that may never come.

⚠️ Main risk: Baltimore remains the division’s toughest obstacle.

⚠️ Houston matchup

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS NFL POSITION #4 — CINCINNATI 🚨

🐅 Bengals to win the AFC North

📍 Polymarket entry: 31%
📊 PTS fair value: 35–36%
💼 Position size: 1.5% of bankroll

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

Why Detroit?

The market has punished the losses, but the offense still looks like a contender-level unit. We think the selloff has gone too far relative to their underlying championship probability.

✅ BUY at 3%

PTS NFL Position #3. Buy the mispricing. Sell the repricing.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS POSITION ALERT — DETROIT

🦁 Detroit Lions — Super Bowl Winner

📍 Polymarket entry: 3%
📊 PTS fair value: 4.75%–5.0%
📈 Estimated edge: +1.75 to +2.0 pts
💼 Position size: 2.0% of bankroll

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

Early days, tiny sample — but the process is doing exactly what we want:

Find the mispricing. Buy the probability. Sell the repricing.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS POSITION UPDATE — BUFFALO CLOSED 🚨

🦬 Bills Super Bowl Winner
Entry: 8%
Exit: 13%
Return on position: +62.5%

Our original PTS fair value was 10.5%. Once the market pushed well through that level, we took the gain and moved on.

Buy the mispricing. Sell the repricing. 📈

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

📈 Closed trades: 1
✅ Record: 1–0
🎯 Win rate: 100%
💰 Avg. closed return: +62.5%
🏆 Best trade: Bills SB +62.5%

📂 Open positions: 1
⚡ Current position: Chargers SB
📊 Capital deployed: 1.5%
💵 Cash reserve: 98.5%

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

That disconnect is exactly what we’re looking for.

📊 Portfolio: 4% deployed
💰 Dry powder: 96%

🔎 Next up: Detroit, Houston, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver

PTS isn’t about picking winners. It’s about buying probabilities when the market gets them wrong.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

🚨 PTS NFL WEEK 1 RESET 🚨

We’re officially underway.

🦬 Position #1 — Buffalo Bills SB Winner
Entry: 8%
Current Polymarket: 10%
PTS fair value: 10.5%
Status: HOLD

That’s a 25% move in contract price toward our thesis.

[PTS @PTSMarkets]

BUY ALERT

⚡ Position #2 — LA Chargers SB Winner
Entry: 3%
PTS fair value: 4.25%
Position size: 1.5% of bankroll

Why LAC?
Polymarket sold them off hard after Week 1, while DraftKings still sits around +2000 and the Chargers are -7 this week.