Page Mill Capital

research on equities, interest rates, bonds, and derivatives. not investment advise, do your own due diligence.

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Gap up over the October 22 high for the 10Yr #TLT

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Yield curve uninverting due to increasing long rates relative to short rates. 10Yr has been on a tear going for the retest of the 430bp level back from October 2022, while the 2Yr has stalled just shy of 500bp $TLT $SPY

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Biogen another big player looking to make acquisitions at low multiples; they are in a similar spot as many other large cap pharma names who have patents on billion dollar drugs running out this and next year

https://t.co/7i9nIVxTev

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Breadth starting to pick up in markets with rally in $XLF and $KRE post earnings, earnings season should provide greater clarity for the rally if other industries are holding out against closing margins

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

$IWM breaking above prior high of 189, Feb 23 high at 199

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

International inflation rates quite divergent with the US around 4% and the UK at 8.7%. Monetary Policy actions also different with the US opting to pause versus UK raising 0.5%. Will be interesting observing the summer months, especially if the US is still factoring in hikes

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

First major IPO in a while $CAVA, $IPO ETF up 2% on the day

https://t.co/oeDmhKcyQd

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

CME Fed odds pricing in 92% odds of no raise tomorrow after today’s print $SPY $SPX $QQQ

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Spread between $SPY vs $IWM at around 2% earlier in the day, now closed to around 0.6%

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Rotation apparent across indexes, $SPY down -0.4% and $QQQ down -1.3%, while small caps $IWM up +1.8% and Dow defensive stocks up +0.3%

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

#ES_F Forward Curve for 2027 trading near 4700

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

#ES_F made the break over 4300, $SPX still around 4297, important resistance level to capture if we are proceeding higher

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Money rotating out of small caps and $IWM down 1.2%, and into mega caps $NVDA up 26%, $GOOGL up 2.7%, $MSFT up 3.5%

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

$SMH Semiconductor Industry ETF short ~18M shares, total outstanding around ~64M according to WSJ, 3 days to cover according to Fintel

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

The semi shorts continue to get squeezed $NVDA

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Over the high made on #ES_F ES Futures by 7 points. Feb high around 4208, currently trading around 4215

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

Trying for a break of our prior high back in early May and in Feb 23 #ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

High OI $SPX options expiring this Friday May 19th:

4000P, ~66,000 contracts
3950P, ~40,000 contracts

5000C, ~45,000 contracts

June 16th options are also interesting, huge block of 4000C in the money, roughly 130,000 contracts, and around 142,000 contracts open on the puts

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

For everyone using @googlefinance for charts, if you use 1 finger and scroll on the chart you can see the price on a given date, but if you use 2 fingers on the range you can see how much the ticker moved between 2 given dates

#trading $FSLR

[Page Mill Capital @PageMillCapital]

@charliebilello Resolves with either the rates coming down or the prices becoming more affordable, no way people paying 6% on already inflated home prices