Olvib

Ex Aviator, Trying to Predict likely outcomes
Geo strategy/IR/IP/Pak Politics
🇳🇱🇩🇪🇦🇿🇷🇺🇳🇵🇳🇬🇦🇪🇧🇭🇪🇦🇲🇫🇸🇦🇹🇷🇺🇸🇸🇪🇧🇾🇬🇪🇨🇳🇨🇿🇪🇬🇶🇦

[Olvib @Pakview43]

One of India's largest AGNI storage sites, Can be called India's FORDOW

Strategically located & surrounded by 7 IAF bases for aircover

96 NM from Hindon
130 NM from Gwallior
180 NM from Jodhpur
130 NM from Sirsa
125 NM from Agra
130 NM from Bikaner
135 NM from Suratgarh

[Olvib @Pakview43]

My stance & prediction about the outcome of "Strategic Pact" signed between Suderi Salman & Munir, read the complete thread please to understand what i predicted
https://t.co/epZMBDClfo

[Olvib @Pakview43]

3/n
4. Is Pakistan currently the Prime adversary to the perceived threat ? (No)
5. By extending security guarantees to GCC,does Pakistan directly invites agression from same threat and does it pitch Pakistan as the Prime adversary (YES)
6.Will GCC not sign Abraham accords? (NO)

[Olvib @Pakview43]

Lets see how they cope up.
If Munir & Shahbaz read it correct, they r a party to this & knew what they r signing as member of Board of peace,or else they never understood how IR/IP works & are incompetent & just surfing wave of elivated PR

Expect obnoxious face saving opinions

[Olvib @Pakview43]

@ahsenniaz661 Lets wait for defence from the "Military fan boys"
I am sure from today onwards, they will be highlighting the importance & benefits of signing "Abraham accords"

[Olvib @Pakview43]

Contined......

https://t.co/q0TjpquEPw

[Olvib @Pakview43]

@AirlinePilotmax Hahaha 🤭 i agree 😁, but Jared Kushner, the architect, promotor & propagator of Abraham accords & Board of Peace may be the lynchpin

[Olvib @Pakview43]

Glad that i read it perfectly. I predicted the End Game an year before. I will post all my predictions regarding Abraham accords in subsequent comments of this post.

Predicting the likely outcomes is what i profess & its what that i cherish. Kindly read the comments section too

[Olvib @Pakview43]

5/n
It was Abraham accords that started this fire and it will extinguish at Abraham accords
President Trump's hinge at earning Noble peace prize
It had nothing to do with relegion/ sects, it is riches attempt to avoid being opressed
#riyadh
#iranisraelwar
#Irán
#MiddleEast

[Olvib @Pakview43]

Comtinued

https://t.co/chCGcXsyys

[Olvib @Pakview43]

@ahsenniaz661 The message is well read by Pakistan too. Sign Abraham accords.

Shortly they will cheer that not just Makah & Madina, Alquds will also have Pakistani protection. A lollipop for an emtional nation that will claim it as yet another "master stroke"

https://t.co/hnLM4HwxYr

[Olvib @Pakview43]

The meltdown of Shudras (OBC's) & Dalits (SC's) , under this post is amazing 😂

[Olvib @Pakview43]

Pakistan must not act desperate for a dialogue with India. Pakistan must set its terms & India must demonstrate that it is serious for a dialogue.
The dialogue should resume only when India reinstate the Indus Water Treaty & apologize for bombing Mosques & relegious seminaries

[Olvib @Pakview43]

The past trend shows that India starts pushing narrative for a normalcy of relationship, acting as a responsible neighbour desiring peace & friendliness. Process starts & then there is a false terrorist incident which paints Pakistan as an extremist nation not ready for dialogue

[Olvib @Pakview43]

Pakistan must not act desperate for a dialogue with India. Pakistan must set its terms & India must demonstrate that it is serious for a dialogue.
The dialogue should resume only when India reinstate the Indus Water Treaty & apologize for bombing Mosques & relegious seminaries

[Olvib @Pakview43]

@LindseyGrahamSC just proved that he is a scum bag who even lacks basic knowledge. I pity people of USA who have such scum bags as their representatives, this tells us alot about accumen of USA public & policy

[Olvib @Pakview43]

7/n
A beautiful article written by Rebecca Hersman in 2020,"Warmhole Escalation in New Nuclear Age" exactly challenged this predictibilty & linearity of Kahn's ladder.
Not going in detail but Hersman's model is indeed very helpful in challenging traditional law of escalation

[Olvib @Pakview43]

1/n
My thesis of Bunyan UM Marsoos is based on academic understanding

The Deterrence ladder and Escalation ladder are both frameworks used to understand conflict, but they focus on opposite sides of the same coin, i.e : Preventing a crisis versus Managing its intensification.

[Olvib @Pakview43]

2/n
While its not possible for India to provide AD cover to all IBGs along LOC, in future conflicts FATAH-1 will continue to haunt Indian battalions.

Also i believe use of FATAH-1 has alot to do with the "Detterence Ladder" & not the "Escalation Ladder"

[Olvib @Pakview43]

6/n
While Kahn's 44-rung escalation ladder is still a useful framework for analyzing crisis escalation but his escalation ladder is predictible & linear in nature & cannot be implemented in terms of South Asian theatre for May 2025 depicted that there are breaks between rungs...

[Olvib @Pakview43]

My POV about tactics employed during Bunyan UM Marsoos

[Olvib @Pakview43]

1/n
Use of Fatah-1 & target selection has some other lessons too.
Targets along the LOC were neutralized & it was made sure that India had no rapid or limited ground counter offensive option left.
This also means a complete failure of
India's Cold Start doctrine.

[Olvib @Pakview43]

@TheSaadKaiser @TararAttaullah The worst combo Pakistan ever had