Palantir Bullets

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[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR is monopolizing the AI infrastructure layer while pushing AI models towards competition.

$1 trillion is inevitable.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR is cheaper than $SNOW $CRWD despite growing 2x faster and at 2x margins.

Just saying.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR has dropped 10% since its Q1 results:

It seems stupid. And it is.

Here is why:

1) Palantir can't meet demand.

Jefferies analyst Thill complains that Palantir doesn't hire more people.

Why do that when you can have people selling for you?

Palantir wants to keep elite talents focused on products + key clients.

Meanwhile, the Partner ecosystem sells and deploys to smaller clients.

ie Accenture formed a +2,000 team to deploy Palantir.

2) Results are so insane that investors don't understand them.

85% Revenue growth with margins expanding to 53% GAAP Net Income Margin.

Yes, including SBC.
Yes, this is black magic.

AIP has a perfect structural market fit.

3) Recurring Revenues on long-term relationships mean ENDURANCE.

As it is very hard to accelerate growth, it is very hard for growth to just stop.

You don't easily stop a rocket.

4) "US Commercial Missed."

Bloomberg reported that US Commercial slowed, but apparently wrote the article without listening to the call.

"One US Commercial" client moved to US Government. Without the change, growth would have been 143%, up from 137% YoY in Q4."

Funny and sad at the same time?

5) Palantir reaps all the benefits

While other AI players spend hundreds of billions of dollars building data centers and training models, Palantir benefits from these expenses without incurring them.

Better models make Palantir AIP more valuable.

AIP is the AI infrastructure level that enables an organization to deploy hordes of agents effectively, compliantly, and safely.

"The number of tasks that you can trust to a model without the right harness exponentially declines.

"More tokens mean more slop. And the more commodity cognition you consume, the more you need a system that can prevent the economic harm so you can harness the economic value." - @ssankar

AI labs are in a race to the bottom. Palantir's pricing power increases the more it can unlock critical use cases at scale.

You can build a simple workflow directly with Code.
You don't want to have 1000 agents without guardrails.

6) Analysts keep underestimating the earnings power:

Revenue YoY growth estimates:
+75% in '26
+44% in '27
+42% in '28

FCF YoY growth estimates:
+115% in '26
+46% in '27
+40% in '28

Analysts believe:
- growth is peaking
- margins can't expand further

Given endurance and a focus on expanding the product over sales, I believe both revenue and margin estimates will be smashed.

7) Is Valuation actually cheap?

Palantir trades at ~60x FCF NTM, while more than doubling FCF YoY.

Even assuming that Palantir delivers FCF in line with (low) estimates, I consider that appealing.

eg $CRWD trades at 77x FCF with 22% Revenue Growth at -3% GAAP Profit Margin.

At least 80x EV/FCF deserved?

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$PLTR

Had a few days to read through everything Burry has put out on Palantir.

First, I agree with everything Arny laid out below and it is a must-read around the worst takes of his 10,000 word article. I'd like to add the following thoughts:

1. This feels like a complete and utter grift. Why? There is a paywall attached to the article and he knows Palantir is a hot topic so he can sell more subscriptions if he were to go after the company. Everything around this just seems like someone who is going after clicks and trying to find his next big thing to be upset about (so many people missed the Palantir story or generally hate the company) so he knows he has an audience that would be willing to click and pay for this.

2. The entire premise of these 10,000 words is quite frankly rooted in nonsense. Anyone can complain about the valuation for a company. Palantir has always been expensive (there are many reasons to explain why) and arguing about the stock is fine. The problem with the article is Burry tries to argue the company itself, it's technology, and it's results are all fake. To be honest, this is a bit laughable. For those that have actually studied the company in depth over the past few years, there are many layers to understanding why Palantir is mission critical in every layer of the US govt, why their software is part of every important geopolitical event, why they are able to compound revenues at 70% as the only really SaaS company showing the benefits from AI, why Maven is becoming the backbone of the Department of War...I can go on and on but to dismiss all of these quantitative and qualitative results as "its a consulting company with a fancy backend" is LAUGHABLE and using arguments from years ago that are simply not relevant today.

3. I don't think Burry is actually looking into how AI becomes valuable in the enterprise. His entire premise for Palantir not being an AI company is that they haven't developed an LLM...newsflash: that's the point. Karp has been clear from the beginning that LLMs would become a commodity and being able to orchestrate the LLMs within the enterprise was going to be where all the value came from. The ENTIRE reason AIP was successful was because it took 20 years to build the foundations to actually implement LLMs and once the LLM revolution began, Palantir was ready to help companies harness the power of those models. This was the worst part of the report to me, it's almost as if he did ZERO research into what the company actually does...which if you are going to write a 10,000 word article...it would probably make sense to do research and understand the usecases of the product. If you were trying to sell subscriptions, the goal would be to simplify the entire business to a talking point so that headlines would catch fire and you could get more people to pay for the subscription.

4. The majority of the report seemed to be focused on the past with Palantir's DPO. The business is not the same business as it is today. Every company evolves and goes through hard times but the ones that actually survive are the ones that create value, show real growth, are able to sustain it, innovate, and do it in a way that actually brings global brand awareness at scale. Palantir has done that and they have done it with less than 4000 people working at the company which just goes to show how incredible the culture is for them to put up those results. Complaining about financials from years ago is irrelevant when we look at the financials today, which those financials have been given a premium, and how investors continue to believe in the growth of the business now as one of the most important companies on the planet.

Finally, the largest issue I have with this is when you look to what Burry is actually bullish on this year...which is...Gamestop. Please think of this carefully...one of the most important software companies on the planet with 50% margins and 70% growth is a scam, fake, not real AI, unsophisticated technology...but a company that sells videogames and buys bitcoin with the money they dilute shareholders with is what Burry thinks real value lies? Again, you could be bullish on GME, I quite frankly don't care, but the problem is the disparity between a videogame company and the software that is on the frontlines of every single major important geopolitical event is too large to take any of this seriously. I mean, it genuinely feels like a full grift to tell your followers to "go meme it up" when writing about GME but then at the same time try to advertise that Palantir is fake. It makes no sense. It is all rooted in personal self interest to promote the stock he is long and play down the stock he is short when any rational person would look at the 7B of revenue Palantir is going to do in 2026 (sticky revenue that compounds at amazing margins in mission critical situations) and then compare that to Burry's horrific analysis of the company.

This is embarrassing in my opinion and showcasing an unbelievably disgusting form of grifting from someone who has too much influence to do so, but I guess this is the route he has chosen to go on.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR I just read @michaeljburry's new short report.

This is BURRYSH1T.

+10,000 words. Here are the 10 worst takes:

1. "Palantir’s margins are not even SaaS-level, but when Palantir’s functionality succumbs to the commoditization of AI coding tools, they will fall further."

2. "The result is a Net Dollar Retention surge from 107% to 139%. 139 is extraordinary. It is also suspect. Such heights are rarely sustained and almost always associated with base effects.

3. "Not enough bandwidth? That sounds exactly like a consultancy. Not enough integration engineers, not enough Palantir people to customize the
installations."

4. "So, after the company lost $4bn in almost 20 years as a private company, it has continued to give tons of stock to employees while losing money on
bubble SPACs and growing to a remarkably petite $4.5bn revenue for 2025 – petite for being the U.S. government’s pet data enforcer AND an AI FOMO/Lucky Strike poster child."

5. "[Selling Gotham] was not too hard. Government software was terrible, and hence, low-hanging fruit. It took 3y, but after that, low hanging fruit."

6. "Foundry was produced in 8 weeks, AIP in a few weeks. Foundry is an integration layer for thin apps that require extensive customization. AIP is simply a wrapper. Putting the cost of its fleet of FDEs in R&D pumps up R&D artificially."

7. "Palantir moved to 'bootcamps' – short demos in lieu of full FDE deployments – as a way to onboard Foundry AIP customers faster and improve margins.
As these boot camps are rehearsed scenarios built on curated data, for ease of use, they can fail in real life scenarios that vary from the curated ones."

8. "Palantir creates architectural overhead in a system, and now that LLMs are integrated into this overhead, the coming commoditization of LLMs should render Palantir a user interface provider of little value.

9. "Let’s spend some time on those money-losing years onas it was a very long time for a company full of supposed geniuses to not make any money."

10. "Calling his engineering consultants 'forward deployed' fit right into his desired noble, militaristic vibe. A righteous and right company."

------------------------------

I lost 10 QI points while reading the entire report, so you don't have to.

Here are a few personal thoughts:

1. The report seems entirely written by GPT.

2. ~20% of the report is focused on how the company was at DPO in 2020. We are in 2026 😉

3. Doubts on the validity of the software are dismantled by customers themselves:

• Airbus, client since 2015, just got a ~$1bn 10y expansion
• Hyundai HD, client since 2021, just got a "hundreds of millions" expansion
• $200mn Lumen expansion
• $440mn deal with the US Navy to provide Ship OS;

Are these clients nuts? 😆

4. Burry wildly misunderstand the Palantir's AI thesis.

Burry just sees AI = LLM , but there is much more than that.

Palantir doesn't build an AI model.

Palantir bets that as LLMs converge toward commoditization, value will increasingly shift to the model-orchestration layer to deliver outcomes: call it AIP.

The 20 years of building software in the most critical use cases put Palantir in a prime position to capitalize on this.

5. Burry wildly misunderstands Palantir's financials, as he believes growth and margins will decrease.

Operating leverage + network effects
= sustained growth with expanding margins

6. Trying to prove US Commercial is a scam by showing International Commerce does't grow is dumb.

Palantir voluntarily pivoted the entire company on the success of US Commercial, the most important market, while it saw the Int market was not ready to capture the AI wave.

US Commercial:
+137% YoY Revenue Growth
+145% YoY Remaining Deal Value
+49 % clients

7. Seeing the low number of clients as a minus is dumb.

The fact that Palantir has been able to generate ~$4bn with ~1,000 clients shows an abnormal earnings potential vs its similar size "competitors":
• Databricks (17,000 clients),
• Snowflake (12,000 clients),

8. Many concerns have dismantled infinite times:
• "consultancy"
• "SPACs"
• "SBC"

They are not concerns now.

9. Dilution is simply not an issue any longer.

The truth is in the Earnings Per Share:
• 8x YoY
• 43% GAAP Margin.

PLTR is diluting by 2% while growing revenue by ~70% at 57% EBIT adj margin. As an investor, I am only happy if we get only 2% dilution to get these results.

10. His $46 valuation uses dumb inputs:

• 16% WACC is crazy. PLTR is no longer a money-burning startup.
• 4% dilution vs 2% actual dilution
• 50% growth for 5 years and 25% after: this is not that negative, but inferior to what the strength of the company can achieve.

11. Burrito is proving himself to be a bad influencer more than an investor.

If he had properly analysed the situation (he could subscribe to @PalantirBullets for free), he could have focused on discussing valid points.

Essentially, he wanted to short and asked GPT to help him draft the thesis, leveraging his "influencer status."

If he wanted to provide a reasonable short report, he would have provided evidence like:

• big customers churning;
• product failing to deliver;
• serious evidence of corporate misconduct.

Why hasn't he done this? There is simply no ground.

There was once an investor.

Now there is only a substack grifter.

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR SPELLS MAGIC

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR Price/Earnings was 5x that of $PYPL.

Yet it delivered a 9x Return. PayPal delivered ~0%.

P/E = recipe for disaster.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR will release its Q4 today.

I've been obsessively studying the company for 4 years.

Here are a few thoughts:

1. Massive opportunity to shape the narrative

While all enterprise SaaS say "AI", only Palantir it is proving it is delivering massive outcomes at scale, in any industry.

Palantir stock has been hit as fear has risen about SaaS companies.

Karp can control the narrative by showing how Palantir's results keep diverging.

Others continue their path. Palantir takes ground.

2. Analysts keep underestimating

I see analysts underestimating:
• the strength of growth;
• the durability of growth;
• margins expansion potential.

The 116x EV/FCF NTM valuation is high, but based on low estimates.

aka it could be actually cheap.

3. The Partner Ecosystem is exploding

The partner ecosystem (3rd party consultants selling pltr) is exploding.

This means:
• new clients = growth;
• growth at almost no cost = higher margins;
• brand awareness = pricing power.

eg. It's partner @NorthslopeAI just raised $22mn after its Revenue 7x.

4. General investors still have no idea

Avg. investor awareness ignores:
• Warp Speed;
• AI FDE;
• Hive Mind.

These products will be the key drivers of growth in the coming years.

Others will fail to catch up.

5. Escape velocity makes the delta widen

After ~3 years since AIP's launch, there is still no real competitor from big tech.

There is a trend of building the "Palantir of X" as companies try to clone the FDE model.

This will only increase awareness, but it will not become real competition. You need to eat pain for many years to deliver the product quality Palantir has, and having access to the most critical use cases is not easy.

Competitors now face a Palantir that is 10x faster at building products.

Good luck.

6. Others buy. Palantir builds

$NOW spent $10bn in M&A in 2025 and nothing revolutionary is coming out of it.

$SNOW bought in 2025 Crunchy Data, Datavolo, and TruEra AI. It is now eyeing a $1bn acquisition for Observe.

Meanwhile, Palantir is dominating by building new products on its tech stack.

Who's the boss?

7. 2026 Guidance is key.

The true focus will be on 26' guidance. Markets want to see strong growth.

$NOW dropped 10% despite strong results, probably because its guidance is just continuing at 22% growth.

$PLTR Analysts see 43% growth for 2026, implying a deceleration, which I don't see as likely.

The best Palantir is yet to come.
----

$PLTR stock dropped sharply after its spectacular Q3 results.

Will this time be different?

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR Q4 deal activity was 🔥🔥🔥

Here is the list of the deals you need to know before Monday's Earnings:

• $200mn with Lumen to support AI in complex, multi-cloud environments;

• $100mn sole contract from the IRS;

• $44mn deal with the US Navy to provide Ship OS;

• $NVDA partnership to operationalize AI;

• Teton Ridge partnership in collaboration with TWG AI and Nvidia;

• DGSI (France’s intelligence) multi-year renewal with the DGSI;

• AIG expansion to assess portfolio risks;

• Cubic partnership to deliver outcomes to shared military customers;

• Accenture extension by forming the Accenture Palantir Business Group;

• Snowflake partnership to integrate AI Data Cloud with Foundry and AIP;

• US Department of Energy agreement to advance the Genesis Mission;

• Northslope expansion;

•Exiger partnership to accelerate Defense acquisition;

• PwC UK multi-year partnership;

• FTAI Aviation multi-year partnership to reduce manufacturing costs;

• Multiverse partnership to launch NHS FDP Apprenticeships Programs;

• Dubai Holdings partnership to launch Aither JV;

• Stagwell partnership to launch a new AI marketing platform built on Foundry;

• Valoriza partnership (Spanish environmental services);

• OneMedNet partnership to advance healthcare AI.

Will these deals make Palantir smash the estimates?

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

Every SaaS says “AI”.

Only $PLTR delivers.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR protects me from bears 🐻

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

" $PLTR WILL COLLAPSE IN 2 YEARS."

Legendary investor @michaeljburry just dropped a new interview with a legendary level of bullshit.

Let's bury him:

1.⁠ ⁠"It's the AI consulting thing."

Burry can't understand that a consulting business doesn't have an 80% gross margin at ~50% FCF margin, growing +60% while having fixed headcount.

Legendarily embarrassing.

2.⁠ ⁠"Palantir doesn't produce a product for AI. It was a lucky AI cover."

Seems Burry spent more time writing tweets on Palantir than actually studying it.

Palantir was doing AI before it was called "AI". The proof is in the old demos and the fact that it was perfectly positioned as the "AI grid" application for deploying n-models to deliver business value.

If Palantir's AI wasn't real:
•⁠ ⁠its business would have stalled like $AI
•⁠ ⁠its metrics would not have exploded
•⁠ ⁠all the clients presenting at AIPCon are liars
•⁠ ⁠USA Gov is deploying a massive scam at scale

3.⁠ ⁠"SBC wastes all the Income".

SBC is expensed as a cost in the Income Statement, but doesn't generate a cash outflow from the company.

Palantir GAAP metrics, so AFTER the SBC impact:

33% Operating Profit Margin
40% Net Income Margin (thanks to Net Interest)

= even if Palantir paid all the SBC in cash, it would still have above elite margins.

4.⁠ ⁠"Wall Street takes EPS per share and adds back SBC."

EBIT Adj is the best metric to assess the strength of the business because it's a proxy of the operating FCF.

EBIT Adj. = GAAP EBIT + SBC

NB: since the timing of customers' invoices can vary, EBIT adj. is a smoother and more representative measure of the value generated in the quarter.

5.⁠ ⁠"GAAP understates the real cost of SBC."

For each employee, SBC expenses from RSUs are recorded at the grant-date price of the shares and remain constant over the vesting period, which is ~4 years.

This means that if PLTR stock rises, the company will continue to record the initial related SBC cost for the vesting period. Still, the shares provided to the employee at the end of the 4 years are actually more valuable than the expenses recorded.

GAAP indeed understates the effective $ amount employees can receive once the shares vest, if the stock rises significantly after the grant date.

That's the bet employees take.
That's the bet investors take.

SBC negatively affects shareholders, as their % ownership of the company is reduced due to the issuance of additional shares, but the accounting value matters relatively little.

What truly matters to shareholders is the change in the number of shares (=dilution), which affects the per-share results and is a serious problem if the company doesn't grow.

Palantir:
+60% YoY Revenue
+90% YoY EBIT adj
+200% YoY EPS
+4.6% Diluted Num. of shares

As long as the business grows much more than the dilution, there is no issue.

I am a happy diluted shareholder :)

6.⁠ ⁠"Look how much the company pays in buyback to offset that level dilution."

Buybacks are stupid only if done at a stupid price.

Since Palantir began its buyback, the stock has risen more than 6x.

NB in Q3 PLTR bought back $20mn vs $600mn EBIT adj.

7.⁠ ⁠“Billionaires/Revenue ratio bigger than 1 has never been seen”.

Palantir has 5 billionaires from owning the stock vs $4b Revenue generated.

While surely that’s an anomaly, it doesn’t mean anything.

To get to $1bn you need to build a business for 20y, not rolling the portfolio every quarter or selling a newsletter.

@ssankar, Palantir's CTO, for instance, has built value in the company as the #13 employee since 2006.

Meanwhile, Burry called 20 of the past 2 recessions.
That's unprecedented.

In 5 minutes, Burry dropped 7 bad takes.
That's unprecedented.

Last week, I was told that Burry has literally coordinated a short attack involving institutional players in the trade.

While I can't verify the accuracy of this claim, I can verify that Burry looks more desperate than ever to preserve the little reputation left.

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR Q3 deal activity was 🔥🔥🔥

Here are the deals you need to know before Monday:

• Up to $10bn for 10y with the Army to consolidate 75 contract vehicles;

• $1bn with the UK’s Ministry of Defense to supply military AI technology;

• $100mn sole contract opportunity from the IRS;

• $100mn US Army for Next-Gen Comm. and Control with Anduril;

• $25mn with the police in Baden-Württemberg (Germany);

• £500k-a-year with the Coventry (UK) city council;

• 5y expansion with Lear to globally use Warp Speed;

• SOMPO multi-year expansion;

• Fujitsu extension to provide AIP in Japan;

• Babcock partnership to deploy Warp Speed;

• Hadean partnership to deliver AI products to the UK Armed Forces;

• Lumen partnership to accelerate AI-driven transformation;

• Namor Intelligence partnership;

• Contract from the US State Department for ORION;

• N-iX partnership;

• NASA sole-source contractor deal;

•Deloitte partnership to unlock outcomes with AI;

• Accenture Federal Services partnership to deploy AI across federal agencies;

• BlueForge Alliance partnership to launch Warp Speed for Warships.

Which is your favorite deal? 👀

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR should drop 75%.

@CitronResearch wrote that, comparing Palantir with OpenAI, the stock is worth $40.

This is the most ridiculous article I have read:

1. “Palantir would be fortunate to achieve the same valuation multiple as OpenAI”. OpenAI generates $12bn while burning $8bn per year. PLTR generated $4bn ARR at +30% GAAP Profit margin. How can you compare EV/Sales without mentioning this tiny detail?

2. “Palantir competes in the enterprise space with lumpy, less scalable revenue.” Palantir’s US Commercial +93% YoY at $1.2bn ARR. Scalable enough?

3. “PLTR’s reliance on the Government is a negative”. In reality, that’s Palantir’s source of superiority, which grows +50% YoY and demonstrates dominance in the most critical use cases. Think of Maven and the $10bn notional contract just received. NB OpenAI is entering the US Gov space and cloning the FDE approach.

4. “Palantir has too many competitors.” After 2 years from the launch of AIP, we still see no real competing product from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Salesforce, Databricks. No ontology no party?

5. “Palantir is just data analytics.” Palantir is an Operating System to build software that solves whatever use case leveraging AI.

6. “TAM too little.” It’s only $1trn, comprising essentially all use cases in any industry and sector.

7. “OpenAI is creating a flywheel that Palantir lacks.” Palantir has a rule of 40 of 94% only possible with a strong flywheel unleashed by network effects. A “locked-in consulting wrapped in software” would not be able to achieve it.

8. “Palantir has to come up with new products that actually solve real business problems”. Thanks to PLTR, Fannie Mae's reduction of its investigation time from 60 days to a few seconds. Not a real business problem?

9. “Unlike Palantir’s service-heavy deployments, Databricks offers true software economics.” While the two have similar ARR and growth, Palantir has ~50% FCF margin, Databricks is barely at break-even.

10. “Palantir has only ~850 customers while Databricks has 15,000.” While this may seem negative, it underscores the significant potential for Palantir to acquire new customers and deliver value. There is a reason why Palantir’s top 20 customers pay ~$70mn per year. There is a reason why the avg. Databricks customer pays $250k per year.

When markets give you lemons, squeeze them 🍋

PS: this is entirely written by me, unlike the report of a short seller.

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

“Value investors” get traps.

Investors in value get $PLTR.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR Q2 earnings visualized:

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR Q2 deal activity was 🔥

Here is the list of the deals you need to know before today’s Earnings:

• Palantir won a $795mn 4y contract with the US Army for Maven Smart System.

• Palantir won a $218mn deal to provide Space C2 Data Platform solutions to the Space Systems Command.

• Palantir signed a $100mn 5y partnership with The Nuclear Company to co-develop and deploy NOS.

• Palantir signed a deal with NATO for the Maven AI warfighting system.

• Palantir partnered with Google to bring Google Cloud to FedStart.

• Palantir announced a partnership with Anthropic for FedStart.

• Palantir partnered with Black Flag.

• Palantir deepened its partnership with xAI and TWG Global to deploy AI in financial services.

• Palantir partnered with The Joint Commission.

• Palantir partnership with the government of Ecuador.

• Palantir signed a commercial partnership with SAP:

• Palantir partnered with Divergent for on-demand Advanced Manufacturing.

• Palantir partnered with Bain to deliver high-impact, end-to-end AI transformations.

• Palantir partnered with Fannie Mae.

• Palantir deepened its partnership with CData.

• Palantir partnered with Bolt.

• Palantir partnered with TeleTracking.

• Palantir signed a multi-year partnership with Fedrigoni.

• Palantir chose the 25 companies for the Startup Fellowship Cohort 000.

Which is your favorite deal? 👀

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR is the operating system to build operating systems.

By definition, that's the most valuable software.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

$PLTR has minuscule earnings.

Yet it has almost infinite earnings power.

Few.

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

🚨 $PLTR mentioned by Fedrigoni CEO as "THE BEST AI PLAYER."

"We just started, but the sky is the limit."

Is Europe ready for AI? 👀