Nick Dekker

18 years’ experience in hedge funds, long/short equities & derivatives ~ Passion for educating individual investors ~ follow my trades ~learn~understand #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Subscribe the mailing list to gain access to the morning note, closing recap and trade alerts.   In the closing recap a complete snapshot of the fund is provided, including open long and short positions, position size, performance and exposures.
https://t.co/cWsn25Uhvv

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight. Two US military personnel killed in Jordan, one missing after Iranian attack. Iran's supreme leader warning Washington will pay for escalating. Day 7 of hostilities. No off-ramp visible.
#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

SPX futures -0.85%, NDX -1.7%. VIX up 9% to 18. Risk off. Earnings ugly: NFLX -10%, ISRG -11%. US-Iran now 6 straight days of strikes. Crude +3%. Copper -1.8%. Bitcoin -2%. Asia tech already getting smoked. Tough open coming.

#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Tech getting smoked. SK Hynix levered ETF in HK down 21%. Nikkei down 4%, Japan tech torched. Kioxia -16%, SoftBank -9%, Tokyo Electron -8%. Metals down 6% on risk-off. Korea closed today but the read-through is ugly.

#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

4DMedical down 15.6% despite US Veterans Affairs pilot program legislation. Market had already priced the news. Classic buy the rumour, sell the fact.

$4DX #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

BHP copper output set to drop up to 15% next year. Reality biting the AI infrastructure copper thesis. And now unions say they can outlast BHP. Operational miss plus industrial action. Tough setup.
$BHP #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

BHP +3.2% Wednesday, -2.3% Thursday. Record production but copper guidance missed on a SA mechanical failure. AMP best day since 2024, up 9.8%. REA +6.6% on 13% listings growth. CBA through $173. The market knows where it wants money ahead of August reporting season.
$BHP $AMP

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Cameco restarting Cigar Lake after resolving mill issues. Uranium supply confidence back. Watch local names.
$BOE $PDN $DYL #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

S&P within 50bp of all-time highs. VIX at 15.67. Looks calm. But Nasdaq 100 fell while Composite rose. Chipmakers -2.1%. Equal-weight S&P down despite index gains. Goldman says momentum vol vs market vol at a record extreme. BHP record production report this morning. $BHP #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Core Lithium back in production. Open pit mining underway at Finnis, underground ramping. First spodumene on track before end of 2026. $181m cash. Key catalysts: decline development, first production, Blackbeard drilling.

$CXO #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Futures pointing higher. ASML beat sent semis bouncing, NDX +0.45%. 10yr back to 4.6%. VIX easing but still above 16. Crude up another 1%. Metals and Bitcoin flat.

#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

BHP +3.2%, biggest day since mid-June. ASX up 0.4% to 8,841 but it was a one-stock session. CBA hit $170. Macquarie another record. BHP operational review 8.30am Thursday. Warsh before the Senate tonight. Two events that set the tone for the rest of the week.
$BHP #ASX #LongShort

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Meanwhile, not only are cheap Chinese LLMs flooding the world, much more importantly China has all the energy - current and pipeline - it needs to power them

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Iron ore back above $100. Rio solid H1 production, guidance maintained. US CPI fell for first time in 6 years. BHP stuck below $60, Rio drifting, FMG sub $20. Is this a proper materials recovery or a one print bounce?
$BHP $RIO $FMG #ASX

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

US CPI fell in June for the first time in six years. JPMorgan record, Goldman record. ASX opening higher. Iron ore back above $100. Rio solid production report. But 296 S&P stocks fell while the index rose. SpaceX back near IPO price.Good headline, narrow breadth.
#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Rotation back on. Semis and opticals ripping, IT services getting smoked. SK Hynix +6%, Samsung +4% leading Asia. Tower Semi +19% on silicon photonics expansion. IBM -23% warning dragging software down. Same story, different day.

#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

US struck 140 Iranian military targets over the weekend. IRGC declared Hormuz closed. Friday's futures are stale. Oil opens in Asian trade this morning and that number tells you everything. Watch 8,700 on the ASX. Energy rips if oil gaps above $80.
#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

ASX snapped a four-day losing streak, up 0.5% to 8806. Only three of 11 sectors higher though. Materials led as Morgans upgraded copper and gold miners caught a bid. Narrow rally on a day the index needed breadth.
#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Westpac's chief economist now calling an RBA hike in August. Inflation still sticky, labour market tight, and the RBA burned by cutting too early in 2025. Not pre-emptive this time. Rate sensitive stocks on notice.
#ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

Wall Street shrugged off Iran, oil fell 2.6% and the AI trade came back hard. Meta planning to double compute from 7GW to 14GW in 2027. Nasdaq +1.3%, S&P within 1% of all-time highs. ASX opening flat. Sigma Healthcare escrow unlocks next month. Watch SIG.
$SIG #ASX #LongShort

[Nick Dekker @PaltarraCapital]

ASX down 0.3% to 8762. Fourth straight session lower. US struck Iran for a second day. Oil extending its surge. Materials the weakest sector. Softer China momentum adding to the pressure.
#ASX #LongShort