Paper Trail

Geopolitics, told on paper. We follow the documents that decide a dispute: treaties, leases, insurance, court rulings. Subscribe for the next dispatch ↓

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Britain rarely gets a warning when the world changes. It gets the bill.
A meeting. A map. A document no one noticed. Then it reaches your kitchen table.
Paper Trail follows the red thread.
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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Republicans in Congress are calling to end the Iran war. Trump is at 41%. Both numbers show up on the same ballot on November 3rd. https://t.co/8UseAOKVyf #Midterms #Iran #Trump

#Iran #Oil #Hormuz #Energy

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

🔥💥TRUMP vs CNN: Can He Ban Them From the White House? Same judge as 2018 #... https://t.co/VEf081RLO5 vía @YouTube

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

🚨🗳️ MIDTERMS IN THE USA:

Why Are Republicans Calling to End the Iran War? Trump at 41% 👇👇👇
https://t.co/XqQOYgN2tt vía @YouTube

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

@CTVNews Canada mined 25m tonnes of potash in 2024, a third of world supply, and sent 53% of its exports to the United States. Washington sits fifth on reserves, 220m tonnes against Canada's 1,100m. Cheaper potash is a request, not a lever: the Corn Belt spreads what the Prairies dig.

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

@AP The minerals were never the easy half. Kvanefjeld is one of the world's largest rare-earth deposits, 1.01bn tonnes at 1.10% TREO, frozen since 2021 when Greenland banned uranium above 100 ppm. Its neighbour Tanbreez is now US-owned; Washington lobbied against a Chinese sale.

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

@Osint613 Sixteen of two hundred. Iran Air's 2016-17 order book ran to 100 Airbus, 80 Boeing, 20 ATR, about $38bn at list. It took 3 Airbuses and 13 ATRs; Boeing delivered none once Treasury revoked the licences in May 2018. The parts bin grounded the fleet before the fuel truck did.

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

@RobertJenrick Grangemouth is the document here. It took its last crude in April 2025 after supplying 65% of Scotland's oil products; the site is now a fuels terminal. That closure left five refineries in the UK. Scotland's diesel arrives by ship, so the import share matters more now.

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

@axios Washington has restricted crude exports before, never the barrel it makes. The 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act banned crude exports until Congress lifted it in December 2015, 41 years later. Refined product was never covered. A diesel ban is a first.

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

@FoxNews The access is not new; the permanence is. The 1951 Greenland Defense Agreement already let Washington keep three bases — Thule, Narsarsuaq, Sondrestrom — and open new defense areas as NATO judged necessary. Thule is now Pituffik Space Base. The Folketing has yet to ratify.

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Three villages, two claims, one name: Operation Vivaldi. What moved on the map is smaller than what moved in the wording. https://t.co/Can2K0SzCr #UkraineWar #Ukraine #Russia

#Ukraine #Russia #Energy

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Britain has exactly one flying tanker. Defensive, and time-limited. That is the whole point of it. https://t.co/U5xSf08BMO #Houthis #UK #RedSea

#Yemen #RedSea #Houthis #Shipping

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Europe's next oil problem is not a shortage. It is a queue, and the first tanker out of the Gulf this week is bound for China. https://t.co/7OAkCsxNH5 #Oil #Hormuz #SaudiArabia

#Yemen #RedSea #Houthis

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

🚨ALERT🚨
Will EUROPE Run Out of Oil? The first tanker goes to CHINA #Sau... https://t.co/HZDi5XUoxn vía @YouTube

[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

The Greenland language says 'forever'. The last document that said that was the 1951 defence agreement. https://t.co/zCV3y4QiUP #Greenland #Trump #USA

#Trump #USPolitics #Geopolitics #PaperTrail

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Seoul said no to combat and stayed quiet about shipping. In a Hormuz war, the second one is the commitment. https://t.co/D9nME2DcTa #SouthKorea #IranWar #Geopolitics

#Yemen #RedSea #Houthis #Shipping

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

An approval is not a delivery. Saudi Arabia's F-35 file is $24.3bn of paperwork before a single aircraft moves. https://t.co/KSkMK2TiM2 #SaudiArabia #F35 #US

#Geopolitics #PaperTrail

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

China does not hold most US debt. Japan does, and Britain holds more than Beijing. The chart is public. https://t.co/5V324i2kCr #USDebt #China #Economy

#USDebt #Deficit #Economy #Fed

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

The Bank of England held rates and mortgage quotes moved anyway. The market priced the sentence, not the decision. https://t.co/JWHc3s5xqZ #UK #Economy #Mortgages

#UK #Economy #BoE #Geopolitics

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Sept 23, 12:01 a.m. EDT: OFAC's wind-down for Iran's airlines runs out. Sell them fuel, gates or tickets and you are cut off from global finance. https://t.co/v45EObTzHO #Iran #Sanctions #Aviation

#Iran #Russia

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[Paper Trail @PaperTrailGeo]

Trade deals are read in the annexes, not in the handshake. Here is what the US-China paper actually commits each side to. https://t.co/ob7c6nRYSy #China #Trump #Trade

#Trump #USPolitics #China #Taiwan

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