Richard Duncan

Publisher of Macro Watch, economist and author. Subscribe to Macro Watch to learn what really drives the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century.

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

FREE VIDEO: Deficits, Bubbles, China, Defense, and AI — A Framework for Understanding the World Today

Deficits, asset bubbles, China’s rise, the defense spending boom, and the AI arms race may appear to be separate developments. I believe they are all connected.

In this new Macro Watch video, I bring together the major themes I’ve examined during 2026 and provide a framework for understanding how and why the world is changing.

The video also explains why artificial intelligence may now be pushing Creditism toward a new economic system that I call Cognitism.

For the first time, I’m making this video free for everyone to watch.

If you find this video useful, please repost it and help me share it with a wider audience.
#AI #China #NationalSecurity

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The defense-spending boom is not simply creating more demand for traditional weapons.

It is accelerating a fundamental transformation of the global defense industry.

This free 7-minute Macro Watch video explains the big picture:
https://t.co/K60eejbmSg

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

Silicon Valley is challenging the traditional defense industry.

AI, software, drones and autonomous systems are changing how weapons are developed—and how wars will be fought.

Watch this free 7-minute Macro Watch video, The Defense Industry Is Being Reinvented:

https://t.co/yqiYi4JBrw

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The traditional defense titans are positioned to receive enormous new orders as military budgets rise.

But cost overruns, production delays and slow innovation cycles leave them vulnerable to a new generation of challengers.

Watch the free 7-minute overview:
https://t.co/yqiYi4J3BY

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

For the complete presentations and all the details, visit
https://t.co/11sHxkJjzO
and subscribe to Macro Watch.

For a 50% subscription discount, when prompted, use the discount code: Noteboook

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The Defense Industry Is Being Reinvented

A new defense-spending boom is colliding with AI, drones, autonomous systems and Silicon Valley challengers.

I created this free 7-minute video with Gemini’s NotebookLM using 120 slides from three recent Macro Watch presentations. Watch!

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

AI investment is powerful enough to drive markets higher. But it may also be powerful enough to keep inflation and interest rates higher. That is the macro tension investors must now watch.

#AI #Inflation

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

Everyone is talking about AI.

Too few people are talking about the industrial capacity required to support it.

China already leads the world in manufacturing, steel production, shipbuilding, industrial robots, batteries, and critical mineral processing.

Can America build fast enough to prevent China from winning the AI Race and becoming the new global hegemon?

That's the question explored in the new Macro Watch video. Read more: https://t.co/tdd0WUOaWD

#AI #China #Economics #Manufacturing

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The AI Arms Race Has Begun.

This isn't just a race to build better AI models.
It's a race to build:

• Semiconductor fabs
• Data centers
• Electric power
• Transmission lines
• Advanced manufacturing

The winner won't simply have the best software.
It will have the strongest industrial base.

The new Macro Watch video explains why.

Read more: https://t.co/tdd0WUOaWD

#AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Semiconductors #Manufacturing

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

What if the United States loses the AI arms race?

If China masters AI first, it could become the dominant economic, military, and strategic power for the rest of this century.

That outcome is not inevitable.

But preventing it will require industrial investment on a scale far larger than most people imagine.

The new Macro Watch video explains why: https://t.co/tdd0WUOaWD

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The US labor market is weakening just as AI investment is becoming one of the main supports for global growth.

That could ease Fed pressure and weaken the dollar.

But it also raises a bigger question:

How dependent is the economy becoming on AI capex, government spending, and credit growth?

This is one of the key forces Macro Watch tracks.

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

Last week I uploaded a new Macro Watch video called "The Silicon Valley Challengers".

The timing turned out to be remarkable.

This week, the press has been full of stories about many of the companies discussed in the video: Palantir, Anduril, SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AeroVironment, Kratos, Planet Labs, BlackSky, and others.

The Wall Street Journal placed today’s defense-tech boom in historical context. Palantir and NVIDIA announced a new sovereign AI initiative for US government agencies. AeroVironment reported very strong results. Analysts highlighted renewed interest in space and defense stocks. And Wired reported on operational challenges at Anduril’s rocket-motor test site.

All of this reinforces the main point of the video:

The US defense industry is being rewritten.

The Pentagon is increasingly turning toward companies built around software, AI, autonomy, drones, satellites, sensors, and data.

This is not just a defense story. It is an AI story, a space story, an industrial policy story, a government spending story, and potentially a very important financial market story.

Subscribers to Macro Watch can watch "The Silicon Valley Challengers" now.

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

AI is not just a technology story anymore.

It is becoming an infrastructure, energy, defense, industrial policy, and macroeconomic story.

That means the AI boom could reshape markets, government spending, electricity demand, and geopolitics.

This is one of the key forces Macro Watch tracks.

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

Dollar strength is not just a currency story.

It is a global liquidity story.

When the dollar rises while Treasury yields remain high, financial conditions tighten around the world.

That puts pressure on risk assets, commodities, emerging markets, and dollar borrowers.

This is one of the key forces Macro Watch tracks.

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The defense spending boom has begun.

But the bigger story is that the Pentagon is changing what it buys, how quickly it buys, and who it buys from.

That shift is creating opportunities for a new generation of defense technology companies — and also significant valuation risks for investors.

The latest Macro Watch video examines both sides of this transformation.

Watch here: https://t.co/VORl4cc4CG

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

For decades, the Pentagon relied mainly on traditional defense giants.

That is changing.

#SpaceX, #Palantir, #Anduril, Shield AI, Rocket Lab, AeroVironment, #Kratos, Planet Labs, and others are part of a new defense ecosystem built around technology, speed, innovation, and scale.

That is the subject of the latest Macro Watch video:
The Silicon Valley Challengers

Read more: https://t.co/bYp9UusllX

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

The US defense industry is being rewritten.

Future military advantage will increasingly depend on AI, software, drones, autonomy, satellites, and space-based networks.

The latest Macro Watch video examines the Silicon Valley Challengers reshaping America’s defense industry.

Subscribers can watch now:
https://t.co/Ymy2KPJqCK

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

America’s military power still depends heavily on the traditional defense giants.

But the next defense spending boom may create opportunities not only for Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and Boeing…

…but also for a new generation of defense companies.

The latest Macro Watch video explains why America’s rearmament has begun and why the biggest winners may not be who most investors expect.

Link below:
https://t.co/DOq9kXD6n8

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

Most investors think America’s largest defense contractors are among America’s most powerful corporations.

They’re not.

The combined market value of Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and Boeing is only a fraction of the value of America’s largest technology companies.

Even more surprisingly, Big Tech now invests vastly more in capital expenditures than the traditional defense industry.

The latest Macro Watch video explains why this matters.

Read more: https://t.co/DOq9kXDEcG

[Richard Duncan @PaperMoneyEcon]

America is entering a new era of rearmament.

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have exposed serious weaknesses in the West’s ability to produce weapons, missiles, ammunition, and military equipment at scale.

In response, defense spending is set to surge.

The latest Macro Watch video examines the five traditional defense giants at the center of America’s military-industrial base:

Lockheed Martin
RTX
Northrop Grumman
General Dynamics
Boeing

Who are they? How did they become so dominant? And who will be the biggest winners of America’s rearmament?

Link below:
https://t.co/DOq9kXDEcG