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TRADING DOES NOT WORK
let me explain:
trading is finding and edge to the market, problem is the market is in constant adaptation for fair value.
the more people know about an edge the less that edge exists, lets say retail strategies on youtube for example.
the way to make it in trading is to either find your own edge or to have your specific risk management parameter which allows you to lose less than you should or to get profit even when your trade idea is wrong
From my research I will remove trades amount volume.
I like london and ny sessions so I will allow myself 2 trades per day one per each session.
Ideally around session opens
if london is a win then I will skip the rest of the day
if london is a loss then I will trade ny
if ny is a win im done for the day
if ny is a loss im done for the day
this way I minize possible losses outcome by sample size.
$xauusd seems good for buys to me. Clean close above resistance, wickfill scenario and even more confirmation once price breaks the high of last week. so far so good, week opened and price drove down creating that bottom wick, which we want in the 1st half of a candle
Current backtesting stretegy is getting 64% winrate
Im trying to make it the most mechanical possible so that I can code it and make it run 24/7 and optimize it until i have a 80% winrate
step by step pre trade analysis
4h is the highest timeframe i can see structure on in this price leg that i want to trade. these are the snr
this trade was taken by a resistance rejection
remember you can only enter trades on these conditions:
buys: break and close above a resistance or rejection of a support
sells: break and close below a support or a rejection of a resistance
partial targets are lower timeframe snr with the overall higher tmf target in mind
be careful, this is 4h $xauusd
seems like price might close below support which for some people might be sells.
however notice that the candles are getting smaller, meaning sell pressure is dying, means that price found a support and is more likely to now move upwards.
notice the lower timeframe now (image 2), 15m chart
a resistance was created on the 15m (30m-1h are very far away)
meaning we might need to wait for some more structure to develop so that later on we can decide on buys or buy straight up from the 15m resistance break.
safer option is to wait for a 30m or 1h resistance to be created and then broken