Paramaz

Independent Broker (15 yrs) | Professional Trader & Investor (35 yrs.) | Stocks, Options, Index Futures & Commodities | Proprietary 10-Minute Trading System

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

After Gold's 210-Point Move, September Silver Futures Has Moved to the Top of My Watch List. Here's Why.

A few days ago I highlighted the long side of gold, a move that ultimately produced over 210 points—approximately $21,000 per standard COMEX Gold futures contract or roughly $10,500 per COMEX Mini Gold futures contract.

Rather than chase what's already moved, my attention has shifted to September Silver futures (SIU26).

From a technical standpoint, SIU26 appears to be carving out a broad W-base. Whether that pattern ultimately resolves higher remains to be seen but if it does, I believe the current technical structure offers an attractive asymmetrical risk/reward profile.

What has my attention is what's happening across the rest of the metals complex.

• Copper has broken to new 52-week highs.
• Gold has reclaimed its 50-day moving average.
• Platinum has reclaimed its 50-day moving average.
• Palladium has reclaimed its 50-day moving average and is challenging its 100-day moving average.

SIU26 has certainly participated in the rally off its lows, but it remains the least technically confirmed of the major metals and has yet to decisively reclaim its declining 50-day moving average near 63.30.

To me, that divergence is precisely what makes the setup compelling.

Adding to the story, today's announcement that the Democratic Republic of Congo is restricting exports of copper and cobalt concentrates helped push copper to fresh 52-week highs. While copper and silver don't trade in lockstep, they share important industrial demand drivers and a meaningful portion of global silver production comes as a byproduct of copper and other base-metal mining. Historically, sustained leadership from copper has often been constructive for silver as capital rotates throughout the metals complex.

Tomorrow's employment report is the wildcard.

Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek all have the potential to materially influence market expectations for the future path of Federal Reserve policy. A meaningful surprise could quickly shift interest-rate expectations and create significant volatility across precious metals.

Here's what I'm watching.

• 62.05 – Initial upside trigger on my 10-minute chart for SIU26.
• 61.12 – My key risk parameter.

The order doesn't matter. We could flush below 61.12 first, trigger stops and reverse sharply higher. Or we could clear 62.05 first and continue higher immediately.

For full transparency, I've established a starter long position in SIU26 at 61.73 using a very tight stop. If volatility takes me out, so be it. I'll reassess and look for another favorable entry if the broader technical structure remains intact.

If SIU26 can reclaim its declining 50-day moving average near 63.30, I believe the 100-day and eventually the 200-day moving averages in the 70.00-71.50 area become reasonable technical objectives.

To me, that's where the asymmetry lies: clearly defined downside versus potentially substantial upside if the technical structure ultimately resolves in favor of the bulls.

Whether you decide to trade it or not, I believe SIU26 deserves to be near the top of the watch list.

Not investment advice. Simply sharing what I'm watching and how I'm approaching the setup.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

$LPTH – A Few Technical Observations

While I've spent considerable time discussing LPTH's fundamentals over the past several months (which, in my opinion, remain exceptional), I thought I'd shift gears today and focus strictly on the technical picture.

Tuesday's gap higher completed a breakout above both the downtrend line dating back to the July 2 high and the 200-day SMA (11.36). Prior to Tuesday's session, LPTH was already pressing against that downtrend line.

To me, that's what made Tuesday significant.

The stock didn't simply move higher—it reclaimed one of its most important long-term moving averages while simultaneously breaking a month-long downtrend. Those are meaningful technical developments, particularly after the sharp selloff into late July.

But as any technician knows, the breakout itself is only part of the story.

What happens next often matters even more.

That's what made Wednesday's session so interesting.

Rather than giving back Tuesday's gains on expanding volume, LPTH spent Wednesday trading entirely within Tuesday's range, producing an inside day while trading just 1.47 million shares—the lightest daily volume since April 7.

Yes, the stock finished down $0.50. However, much of that weakness developed during the final hour of trading as the broader market accelerated lower into the close. From a technical perspective, that suggests sellers were not particularly aggressive throughout most of the session despite Tuesday's breakout.

Could the gap eventually be filled?

Absolutely—and it wouldn't surprise me if it is.

The gap is at 11.18, just beneath the current 200-day SMA (11.37). Also worth noting is that the 5-day SMA (11.27) and the 20-day SMA (11.23) have now clustered in that same general area. If LPTH does revisit those levels, I don't believe filling the gap necessarily invalidates Tuesday's breakout. Instead, I'll be paying close attention to how the stock behaves if it tests that area.

Looking higher, the next meaningful resistance comes into view between roughly 12.70 and 13.10, where lateral resistance converges with the 100-day SMA (13.03). Above that sits the 50-day SMA (13.52).
It's also important to view LPTH within the context of the broader market. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have already enjoyed a significant advance over the past several sessions. Wednesday reminded investors that markets rarely move in a straight line, and some back-and-filling after such a strong move would be perfectly normal from a technical standpoint.

We're also entering the seasonally weaker August period—the so-called dog days of summer. Under normal circumstances I'd probably be somewhat more cautious. On the other hand, it's possible the market already experienced much of that washout during the sharp decline into late July. Combined with generally solid earnings, I think the next several weeks should be particularly interesting from a technical perspective.

As many of you know, I maintain a long-term core position in LPTH and I am extremely bullish. Around that core, I'll occasionally trade additional shares when I believe the technical risk-reward becomes unusually attractive—adding into sharp declines near important support and reducing trading shares into strength while continuing to hold my core investment.

For me, the fundamentals determine what I want to own over the long term. The technicals help me determine when to add, when to reduce trading shares and when patience offers the greatest edge.

I don't know whether LPTH immediately pushes through the next resistance zone or first comes back to fill the gap.
What I do know is this: Tuesday changed the technical picture. Wednesday didn't confirm it, nor did it invalidate it. It simply gave us another day of price and volume to evaluate. The next several sessions should tell us considerably more.

The tape action will tell the story.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

@BussinBiotech @skrubin Excellent!

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

Scratching the trade for a break even!

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

$SKHY

Initiated a long position at 154.10 with a 152.60 stop, risking approximately 1.50 points. It's actually up ticking as I am posting this.

The stock didn't distinguish itself early in today's session and actually underperformed the broader market during the initial flush. However, the character of the tape has improved considerably as the day has progressed, and it's now beginning to show relative strength.

Price is approaching a key downtrend line. A decisive move through the 156 area would represent an encouraging technical development. If that occurs, I'll likely tighten my stop toward breakeven and allow the trade to develop from there.

I like the current risk/reward profile. The downside is well defined, while a successful breakout could offer a reward several times greater than the initial risk. That's exactly the type of setup I look for.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

$SKHY

Initiated a long position at 154.10 with a 152.60 stop, risking approximately 1.50 points. It's actually up ticking as I am posting this.

The stock didn't distinguish itself early in today's session and actually underperformed the broader market during the initial flush. However, the character of the tape has improved considerably as the day has progressed, and it's now beginning to show relative strength.

Price is approaching a key downtrend line. A decisive move through the 156 area would represent an encouraging technical development. If that occurs, I'll likely tighten my stop toward breakeven and allow the trade to develop from there.

I like the current risk/reward profile. The downside is well defined, while a successful breakout could offer a reward several times greater than the initial risk. That's exactly the type of setup I look for.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

On August 3 at 1:45 PM CT, I posted that I was long December Gold futures at 4,090 with a 4,085 stop.

The thesis was straightforward. After an extended consolidation, I believed gold was carving out a very short-term bottom with an attractive asymmetric risk/reward profile.

Less than two days later, December Gold futures are now trading slightly above $4,300 per ounce.

That's a move of more than 210 points, or approximately $21,000 per standard COMEX Gold futures contract and about $10,500 per E-mini Gold futures contract, per contract.

Could gold continue to $4,400? Absolutely. I think that's entirely possible, particularly with important economic data still ahead this week. But I'm perfectly content taking the trade here and simply saying thank you. When the market gives me an exceptional move in a very short period of time, I'm more than happy to book the profits and move on to the next opportunity.

My conviction wasn't based on gold alone. Copper had already broken out to new short-term highs and was showing exceptional relative strength. Platinum and palladium had also broken above key resistance, confirming broad strength across the metals complex. Gold and silver, however, had yet to fully participate. That intermarket divergence immediately caught my attention. Combined with what I viewed as a favorable technical setup and tightly defined risk, it represented one of the highest-conviction opportunities on my screen.

I've learned over the years that I don't need a high win percentage to make consistent money. I need trades with tightly defined risk, the discipline to let my winners run and the patience to wait for opportunities where the potential reward is many multiples of the predefined risk. That's the beauty of asymmetric risk/reward. A relatively small number of well-executed trades can have a meaningful impact on your overall performance.

For me, the objective has always been to identify outstanding risk/reward opportunities. That's been the foundation of my trading career. Patience, disciplined execution, allowing profits to run and the proprietary trading methodology I've developed over the years are the biggest edges that have served me well throughout my career.

I'll continue posting the high-conviction setups that stand out to me before they happen—not after.

$GC $GLD #Gold #Futures #Commodities

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

For those who trade commodities, gold has my attention here from a very short-term trading perspective.
I'm currently long December Gold futures from 4,090 with a stop at 4,085.

To me, a move above 4,096.40 sets up a very attractive risk/reward opportunity. Gold has spent considerable time consolidating, and it appears to be carving out a very short-term bottom.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I like the asymmetry here. The risk is well defined, while a decisive move above resistance could attract additional momentum buying.

From a very short-term trading perspective, I find this to be one of the more intriguing technical setups on my screen right now.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

@skrubin @lightpathtech Thank you for your reply, much appreciated!

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

Today's Reuters article caught my attention.

https://t.co/QdXPdJaNmf

@SKRubin @LightPathTech

Lockheed Martin is reportedly seeking long-term supplies of germanium for infrared sensors and other defense applications, with discussions involving Teck Resources and 5N Plus.

It immediately made me think about LightPath and BlackDiamond.

My question is this:

If germanium remains such a strategic priority for next-generation infrared systems, where does BlackDiamond fit into that ecosystem?

Is BlackDiamond intended to reduce dependence on germanium in certain optical applications, or are germanium and BlackDiamond solving different challenges within the infrared supply chain?

I completely understand you can't comment on confidential customer discussions. I'm simply trying to better understand where LightPath's technology fits within the evolving defense and aerospace ecosystem.

I'd appreciate any perspective you're able to share.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

When I connect those developments, I don't simply see another technology company.

I see a business that has spent years positioning itself around capabilities that governments are now increasingly prioritizing.

To me, that's where the opportunity still exists.

Markets occasionally undergo a meaningful change in perception when investors recognize that a business has evolved beyond the framework they historically used to value it.

I believe $MTRN is an example of that process. I'm not suggesting LPTH is Materion or that the businesses are directly comparable. I'm simply suggesting that markets often take time to recognize a business transformation—and when they do, meaningful reratings can follow.

The market recognized part of LightPath's story. I don't believe it has fully recognized the entire story.

Sam Rubin has discussed the potential for another step-function during the September through November timeframe. Whether that ultimately comes through additional contracts, broader BlackDiamond adoption or other strategic developments remains to be seen.

What I do know is this:

The contracts continue building.

The strategic backdrop continues strengthening.

Government priorities continue aligning with LightPath's capabilities.

The fundamental tailwinds continue becoming stronger.

I believed LPTH was a gift near $1.10.

I believed it was a gift below $2.

I believed it was a gift buying aggressively in the $9.30s.

Today, I believe the underlying thesis is stronger than at any point since I first began building my position.

In my opinion, reratings rarely occur because of one headline. They occur because execution, fundamentals and market perception gradually converge.

I believe we may be approaching that next phase.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

@SKRubin @LightPathTech

$LPTH
I believe the market may be approaching the point where it begins viewing LightPath Technologies through an entirely different lens... no pun intended.

Back in December 2022, I visited LightPath, sat down with Sam Rubin, toured the facility and began aggressively building my position near $1.10.

At the time, the prevailing question was simple:

"If the opportunity is so compelling, why is the stock trading around a dollar?"

I heard essentially the same question again in April 2025, when LPTH traded below $2.

My answer was the same both times:

I didn't believe the market had fully connected the dots yet.

A few observations...

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

It's important to acknowledge one thing.

The market did begin recognizing what LightPath was becoming.

The stock advanced from below $2 to nearly $19. That wasn't random. It reflected improving execution, growing investor awareness and increasing appreciation for the company's strategic positioning.

I believe that was the first meaningful recognition of the story—not the final chapter.

Since then, I believe the fundamental thesis has continued strengthening even as the stock has pulled back.

That's exactly why I viewed buying aggressively in the $9.30s last week as another exceptional opportunity.

Just consider what has developed over roughly the past six weeks:

• $24M in follow-on defense and counter-UAS orders.

• The Office of Strategic Capital's conditional commitment of up to $820M to expand domestic drone-component manufacturing.

• Continued acceleration of Drone Dominance and broader counter-UAS priorities.

• Executive actions emphasizing resilient defense supply chains, trusted sourcing and domestic manufacturing.

• Defense Production Act actions focused on strengthening strategic critical-mineral supply chains.

• Continued focus on germanium supply constraints, allied sourcing and secure infrared supply chains.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

Just to clarify, I wasn't trying to promote the stock or generate volume. Someone replied to one of my posts and mentioned your name, so I simply responded.

For context, I first visited LPTH in December 2022 when it was trading around $1.10 because I believed in Sam Rubin and where I thought the company was headed. I revisited the company in May 2025 and my conviction has only strengthened through continued due diligence.

I hold a core position and actively trade around it by selling into extreme spikes and buying hard pullbacks into key support and major moving averages. Back in September 2023 I publicly stated I believed LPTH was at least a $10 stock.

Today, I believe it has the potential to reach $70 over time if management continues to execute. That's simply my opinion and long-term view.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

One thing I find somewhat confounding is just how light today's volume remains.
The stock is participating in the broader market rally, but with only about 900K shares traded and less than two hours remaining, it still feels more like $LPTH is being pulled higher by the market than attracting meaningful incremental buying interest of its own.

What stands out to me is the relative performance since the July 22 highs. $UMAC has already exceeded those highs. $ONDS is within roughly 3% of reclaiming them. LPTH, meanwhile, remains approximately 15% below its July 22 high despite what I believe are increasingly favorable long-term fundamentals.

To me, that's an interesting divergence.

My view hasn't changed. I continue to believe LPTH is materially undervalued at these levels. It wouldn't surprise me if investor attention returns quickly and volume begins to expand. When that happens, I believe LPTH has the potential to play catch-up in a meaningful way.

We'll see if the market agrees.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

@cryptoendgamer @jrouldz I will leave that to you. I know the fundamentals are extremely strong and believe LightPath Technologies is going significantly higher in the fullness of time.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

For those who trade commodities, gold has my attention here from a very short-term trading perspective.
I'm currently long December Gold futures from 4,090 with a stop at 4,085.

To me, a move above 4,096.40 sets up a very attractive risk/reward opportunity. Gold has spent considerable time consolidating, and it appears to be carving out a very short-term bottom.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I like the asymmetry here. The risk is well defined, while a decisive move above resistance could attract additional momentum buying.

From a very short-term trading perspective, I find this to be one of the more intriguing technical setups on my screen right now.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

Excellent summary, Sam. I think the bigger takeaway is that all three developments point in the same direction: governments and industry are increasingly treating germanium as a strategic asset rather than just another commodity.

The Defense Production Act reaching into recycling streams, Belgium supporting new supply in Congo and China accumulating domestic production all suggest the market is recognizing that supply security is becoming just as important as supply itself.

My question is this: at what point do you think the market begins assigning a premium to companies developing alternative infrared materials and optics? In other words, when do they transition from being viewed as component suppliers to being recognized as critical enabling technologies for the defense and thermal imaging supply chain?

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

Yes, I absolutely think it's possible. The NBA is influential, but it doesn't control the free market or every outcome. If Caitlin Clark can generate the highest TV ratings, attendance, sponsorships and media interest, then investors and sponsors will follow the audience. That's how business works.

And let me ask this: are you saying the NBA is happy with the current situation? The WNBA has seen unprecedented attention because of Caitlin Clark, yet she's repeatedly been at the center of unnecessary physical play and controversy. If that's the product they want to protect, I'm not convinced that's the best long-term business strategy.

At the end of the day, players follow opportunity. If a Clark-led league could offer competitive salaries, major sponsorship backing, better exposure and a professional environment where players feel valued, I think far more players would consider making the jump than people realize. Money has a way of changing the landscape and history has shown that when consumers, sponsors and broadcasters shift their attention, established leagues don't simply get to dictate the outcome.

I doubt it ever happens but the WNBA has become significantly bigger because of Caitlin Clark, that's just a fact. Lose her to Europe and watch the ratings sink!

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

That's true—BlackRock owns positions in thousands of companies, so their name alone isn't the story. The more relevant point is the size of the position relative to a company with LPTH's market cap. They could have owned a much smaller, token position if all they wanted was broad exposure. Instead, they've accumulated a meaningful stake.

I'm not suggesting BlackRock is infallible or that this guarantees future performance. It's simply another positive data point. When one of the world's largest asset managers owns a meaningful percentage of a small-cap company, I'd rather see that than no institutional interest at all. It's one piece of the puzzle, not the entire investment thesis. And if LPTH continues to execute, I believe additional institutional interest is likely to follow.

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

I think many are asking the wrong question regarding BlackRock's new 6.5% ownership of $LPTH.

The debate seems to be whether the shares are held in one fund or spread across multiple BlackRock funds.

To me, that's not the key takeaway.

Markets don't price intent. They price ownership, supply and demand.

Whether those 4,294,997 shares are held through index, quantitative or active strategies, they're still 4.29 million shares. That's approximately 6.5% of the company and represents a meaningful institutional ownership position for a company of LPTH's size.

The filing also indicates the reported ownership is spread across multiple accounts rather than concentrated in a single beneficial owner. I view that as constructive. It suggests LPTH has become relevant across multiple BlackRock strategies instead of relying on a single portfolio manager's conviction.

The filing also reports BlackRock has sole voting power over more than 4.23 million shares and sole dispositive power over essentially the entire 4.29 million-share position. That's a significant institutional footprint.

Does the filing tell us why BlackRock owns the shares? No.

Does it tell us they now report beneficial ownership of 4.29 million LPTH shares? Absolutely.

To me, the bigger story isn't trying to determine which BlackRock fund owns what. It's that institutional ownership continues to broaden while LPTH's execution, defense exposure and advanced materials strategy continue to strengthen.

That's the combination I'm focused on.

Source (SEC Schedule 13G): https://t.co/WGhObVU8YQ

[Paramaz @Paramaz1932]

You can't seriously believe Caitlin Clark would struggle to find financial backing. She'd have sponsors, investors and corporate partners lining up. The amount of capital that would be available to her would be extraordinary.

More importantly, let's be realistic about the economics. If Caitlin Clark left and a significant number of players followed, the WNBA would face an enormous challenge. Many fans, sponsors and media partners who are there because of Clark would likely shift their attention as well. It's not difficult to see how that could fundamentally change the league's financial outlook.

Whether it would actually happen is another discussion entirely, but the idea that she couldn't attract funding or support just doesn't hold up.