Bansal

Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night.
“Timing, in anything you do in life, is half the battle.”

[DigiPanda @digipanda19]

@Vivek_Investor At 7.8% GDP
Don’t buy gold
Don’t travel abroad
Don’t complain stocks return

Don’t question bad roads
Don’t ask fr jobs
Don’t question on corruption
Don’t question taxes

Don’t raise ur voice
Don’t demand dignity
Don’t complain about pollution

Pay Taxes. Just adjust. Stay silent

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@investor_sr33 May God rest his soul. I’m so sorry for your loss. 🙏🏻

[Mayank Saraf @MayankSaraf123]

One stock I revisited after almost a year of listing — Star Imaging & Path Lab.

I was quite bullish on this story since the IPO, but the stock has failed to perform so far.

After revisiting the numbers, business fundamentals, expansion plans and IPO utilisation, my conviction has only strengthened.

A few things that make Star Imaging interesting 👇

🔹 25+ years of operating history — this isn’t a newly created IPO story.
🔹 24 diagnostic centres as of FY26 — 18 in UP, 5 in Delhi & 1 in Nashik.
🔹 ~7.1 lakh tests conducted in FY26.
🔹 100+ B2B hospital relationships.
🔹 B2C business growing ~18%.
🔹 New ₹14 Cr Dwarka centre adds another growth leg.
🔹 Two new centres already operational, with another in the pipeline.
🔹 New centres typically take 6–8 months to reach breakeven.

But what I find particularly interesting is the business mix.

FY26 revenue was ~₹88.5 Cr, of which:

Radiology: ₹73.6 Cr (~83%)
Pathology: ₹12.3 Cr
Cardiology: ₹2.2 Cr
Neurology & others: balance

So this is predominantly a radiology-led diagnostic business, rather than a conventional pathology-heavy diagnostic chain.

And the financial profile is interesting:

• ~37.5% EBITDA margin
• ~21.8% PAT margin
• ~29% ROCE
• Net cash position
• 71.9% promoter holding
• No promoter pledge

And then comes the part I think the market may be overlooking:

IPO utilisation has been disciplined.

₹12 Cr → debt repayment
₹5.14 Cr → refurbished medical equipment
₹7.53 Cr → GCP
~₹12.51 Cr still available

The unutilised IPO money is sitting in FD/current accounts, while FY26 operating cash flow was ~₹23.3 Cr.

At the current valuation, you’re paying only around 7-8x FY26 earnings for a business with high margins, healthy ROCE, promoter skin in the game, an established operating history of 25+ years and an expansion runway.

Management had originally indicated 30–35% growth, but FY26 execution was affected by regulatory delays. Management now says those issues have been resolved and expects 25–30% growth in FY27.

If management can deliver its targeted 25–30% growth, the earnings trajectory could look very different over the next 2–3 years.

The market clearly hasn’t rewarded the story yet.

But that’s precisely what makes it interesting.

Sometimes the opportunity lies in a good business where the numbers are improving before the valuation rerates.

STAR IMAGING — ₹83 today. IPO PRICE ₹142. What if FY28 tells a very different story?

An interesting BSE SME diagnostic play with operating history of 25+ years quietly sitting at ~₹145 Cr market cap.

FY26:
📌 Revenue: ₹88.5 Cr
📌 EBITDA: ₹33.2 Cr
📌 PAT: ₹19.3 Cr
📌 EBITDA Margin: ~37.5%
📌 ROCE: ~29%

FY27E:
🚀 Revenue: ₹110–115 Cr
🚀 PAT: ₹24–26 Cr

And if the growth story sustains into FY28:

FY28E
📈 Revenue: ₹140–150 Cr
📈 EBITDA: ₹52–56 Cr
📈 PAT: ₹31–34 Cr
📈 EPS: ~₹18–20

At just 12× FY28 earnings:

👉 Potential value: ₹215–240/share

At 15×:

🔥 ₹270–300/share

The ingredients are interesting:

✅ 25–30% growth potential
✅ ~37% EBITDA margins
✅ Improving cash generation
✅ Low leverage
✅ Expansion in MRI/CT & advanced imaging
✅ 100+ hospital tie-ups
✅ B2B + B2C expansion
✅ Significant operating leverage possible

Current market cap: ~₹145 Cr.

The market is waiting for one thing:

EXECUTION.

If FY27 validates the growth story, FY28 could be when the valuation gap really starts closing.

₹83 → ₹150 → ₹200+?

Not a prediction carved in stone.
Just a risk/reward setup worth watching closely.
Definitely one to keep on the radar.

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@MayankSaraf123 @Abcstostay Thank for the detailed analysis! Do you find Invicta diagnostic interesting as well?

[Anand Ranganathan @ARanganathan72]

Why are all my BJP friends in a tizzy because of my remark? Yes, our economy is doing well but India's overall debt is not a happy occurrence. Foolish of anyone to defend this! It's embarrassing for a scientist to explain commonsensical economics but here goes (pardon rough and approx figures as writing on the go):

1. India’s public debt is not some ₹270 lakh crore irrelevant figure; the Centre alone owes about ₹201 lakh crore. Add the states and general-government debt is over 80% of GDP, far above the old FRBM ceilings of 40% (Centre) and 60% (Centre plus states) that were supposed to be hit by FY25. Interest already takes 40% of the Centre’s revenue; the FY27 bill is budgeted above ₹14 lakh crore. That is not a footnote. It is the first charge on every tax rupee.

2. The Centre has at least tried to put a share of borrowing into capex. The states have not, uniformly. A growing slice of state borrowing is paying for salaries, power subsidies and unconditional cash transfers; twelve states alone set aside about ₹2 lakh crore for women-centric cash schemes in FY26, not for assets that service the debt. Several high-debt states are, in effect, borrowing to give money away.

3. India is not America. It has no reserve currency, a still-narrow income-tax base, and cannot roll deficits the way the dollar can. Most of the debt is domestic and rupee-denominated, so this is not a classic external-debt crisis. It is a compound-interest and politics problem. Fast nominal growth can shrink the ratio for a while; it cannot indefinitely outrun a 40% interest-to-revenue claim plus election giveaways.

4. If growth slows, the interest bill, state deficits and crowding-out of private credit will produce something problematic: higher real rates, less room for capex, and a fiscal vise that closes just when the next shock arrives.

5. So let us be sensible. Praise the govt for its good policies and be critical of the things that are not right and need to be set right.

6. And @pradip103 and @MumbaichaDon, my brothers, I don't do monkey balancing. And I don't make reels as I am not on Instagram, never have been. So please don't get personal - arguments are never won through getting personal.

7. But I never mind personal barbs from my RW and BJP friends because they are friends and their heart is in the right place. But I do get embarrassed by the eagerness of some of them to make a fool of themselves publicly at times! Cheers and have a great weekend.

8. WDTP

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@rameshsrivats LOL

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@microcp2mltibgr @darvasboxtrader Give a try to UGL, AGQ

[Vishal Vardhan @microcp2mltibgr]

@darvasboxtrader SIL, SILJ, GDX, GDXJ, REMX, COPX,
WEAT, CORN, XOP, OIH, URNM, URNMJ, URA, check charts

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@lunarastro108 Giri ji, do you find any karmic connections and person lost his luster at such age? Were there any indications to native that he is gonna lose his family glory since he might have made fortunes by doing the same trade or he made money elsewhere. Wish you a speedy recovery. 🙏🏻

[Deepanshu Giri @lunarastro108]

Three days back saw a chart - A person came from Mumbai 65 years of age- everything he built gone due to leverage and options market.

Company worth from 30000 Cr to almost Zero- Debt ridden - My suggestion to young generation is - you can be in the game from last 40 years but one day - only one day it will come -when everything will go.

Never ever touch Options, leverages- The person had his own broker company and far better resources/knowledge and experience than you have, and still in old age everything gone.

I got so deeply impacted by consultation that i got sick from last three days- I wake up -eat food, medicines and sleep- Never ever do leverages

[Abhishek Bansal @bansalabhishek5]

Thought for the day!!

Victoria's Secret's share price is up almost 3x over the past year, driven by a turnaround in sales & margin, which makes me wonder: is this a 2nd-order impact of GLP1 drugs in the US?? Just as fast-food chains & snacking brands are witnessing a slowdown.

#VSXY #GLP1drugs

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@ankitbahuguna84 Recently another SME listed Team tech Formwork Solutions, subscription was poor, yet gave superb returns. Which would you find better Msafe or Teamtech. Any cues would be appreciated.

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@ParthaAwe Holding Cyient DLM

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@bansalabhishek5 What an observation of a second-order impact—one that probably never crossed the minds of the fault-finders!

[Rohit Ramasubramanian @rohiitian]

I spoke to Sudeepji, promoter of Sumax Engineering #SME #IPO

The company manufactures & trades products for automotive OEMs and Auto refinish market, and is tripling its capacity with the help of the IPO funds

Do listen & take an informed call

https://t.co/9S2RNm7pXg

[the boi 🐂💸 @boidawonda]

didn't sleep all night cus wanted to pump out a mega tweet on something i've been obsessing over

this will probably be my final tweet on it for a while, it includes all my thoughts summed up, why i decided to size in, and much more

quoting my shree refrigerations vs yasho industries post for the timestamp

the chart rhyme is cute

the business rhyme is where it gets interesting

long one, grab a coffee

THE SETUP -- why i'm even comparing them

both charts have the same broad shape

big base
obvious horizontal ceiling
breakout
retest / absorption
then price discovery with very little historical supply overhead

i'm NOT saying same chart = same outcome

that's horoscope shit, plus i ain't a trader

the question is whether the chart is expressing the same underlying thing

is price starting to discount a materially different earnings path BEFORE the financial statements make it obvious

that is what happened in yasho

YASHO -- what actually happened before the GOD candles

this is the part i had wrong initially

yasho did not randomly wake up and 4x because smallcap gods decided to bless it

the business had spent years building capacity and taking the pain first

by fy26 it had ₹830cr revenue, +22.7% yoy
volume growth was +33%
ebitda was ₹144cr at 17.4%
cash from operations was ₹152.75cr
utilisation was already >60%

and the balance sheet was starting to heal

they had a 15-year long-term agreement with a large global customer
₹51.4cr of customer advance was already received
management was targeting >75% utilisation in fy27
and had laid out a path toward ~₹1,500cr fy28 revenue

the important thing is the sequence

the stock had already started leaving the old range BEFORE q1fy27 gave everyone the clean proof

then q1 came and basically told the market it wasn't hallucinating

₹308cr quarterly revenue
+42% volume growth
₹74.42cr ebitda
24.2% ebitda margin
₹36cr pat
utilisation >65%
working capital 190 days -> 143
net debt / ebitda 3.75x -> 1.86x

then management raised fy28 revenue target to >₹1,600cr and doubled fy27 capex from ₹125cr to ₹250cr because customer approvals + commitments were giving them visibility

that's the real fractal

price moved first
earnings caught up
old earnings denominator went stale
market re-underwrote the company higher

once u understand that, the candles make a lot more sense

NOW SHREEREF -- what exactly is price trying to front-run

first, the uncomfortable facts

fy26 revenue was ~₹154cr
opm ~21%
pat ~₹22cr, helped by a low tax rate

closing order book went from ₹327.62cr at sep-25 to ₹270.77cr at mar-26

so this isn't some flawless numbers-up-and-to-the-right story

execution drained the book faster than fresh awards refilled it in h2

that is THE thing price now needs the business to fix

management's public growth path is ~40% CAGR off fy26
long-term ebitda guidance is 20-22%
existing infrastructure is guided to support roughly ₹400cr of revenue

so unlike yasho, shree doesn't need another giant factory merely to reach management's existing ~₹400cr infrastructure ceiling

it mainly needs orders, execution and capital velocity

THE ORDER TAPE -- this is why the next month matters so much

shree is a half-yearly reporter

normally that sucks because price can run months before u get another p&l

except here the reg-30 tape is basically the operating dashboard

announced orders reconciled to ~99.3% of reported h1 fy26 inflow and ~97.5% of h2 inflow

translation

if order momentum changes, the exchange should tell us

and the seasonality is hilariously specific

both fy26 mega orders landed inside 25 aug -> 25 sep

last year's monster was ₹106.63cr from hindustan shipyard for hvac on 5 fleet support ships on 25 aug

h1 fy26 inflow was ~₹162.6cr
h2 without a comparable mega was only ~₹46.3cr

one order can literally change the half

q1fy27 inflow of ₹17.13cr is actually the best q1 in the available series, ~17x yoy

so calling it an inflow drought rn would be stupid

the test begins NOW

25 aug -> 25 sep

if a large order lands after the stock has already broken into price discovery, the yasho rhyme moves from chart porn to something fundamentally interesting

THE FOUNDER -- the bit i think the market may be sleeping on

ravalnath shende isn't a finance bro who found defence on a powerpoint

he is a production engineer from vjti

shree's own public bio calls his l&t role "terro engineer" and says he later worked at kirloskar brothers as business head

the ipo prospectus is much more useful because it describes the skill set

sales
manufacturing + operations
planning
finance
management
compressor manufacturing
vendor development

read those last four again if ur trying to underwrite a manufacturing company with a working-capital problem

shende's public self-reported career profile goes further and describes a kirloskar stint involving hydraulic-division business responsibility and work around developing a compressor-assembly contractor

historical kirloskar records independently confirm that the company had a hermetically sealed compressor business in this era, including compressor manufacturing at karad for refrigeration / air-conditioning applications

then shende leaves that ecosystem and starts shree refrigeration in 1990

that's a pretty coherent founder-market-fit chain

production engineering
industrial application work
compressor manufacturing
vendor development
business responsibility
then 36 years building a refrigeration company

this does NOT mean "ex-l&t so stock goes up"

that's linkedin-brain (most moonboys on here)

the reason i care is because the current problem maps directly to his supposed operating skill set

WORKING CAPITAL -- where the founder bet gets falsifiable

shree's cash cycle was disgusting

fy25 ccc ~576 days

fy26 ~368 days

still disgusting, but that's a 208-day improvement in one year

debtor days
352 --> 251

inventory days
351 --> 231

this is not small

and this is where i think the shende history matters

vendor development affects lead times
production planning affects wip
inventory discipline affects cash locked on the floor
collections + milestone execution affect receivables
commercial terms decide whether growth funds itself or eats the balance sheet

resume alone gets ZERO valuation credit

but when the resume says planning / finance / manufacturing / vendor development and the audited numbers then show 576 -> 368 days, my prior changes

now make him prove the second leg

if revenue grows 40% and wc balloons back out, that weakens the founder / operating-efficiency thesis hard

if revenue grows while debtor + inventory intensity keep compressing, then the business quality is changing underneath the topline

imo this may be the biggest re-rating lever in the company

not heroic margins

capital velocity

THE MOAT -- real, but don't become a fanboy

there are roughly 3-4 qualified players in the relevant naval refrigeration / hvac ecosystem

shree has a deep type-test library
is registered across all three naval directorates
has sole-source pockets
has a control-panel registration advantage
and management says it is the only indian company to have indigenised the complete submarine hvac system

that is real capability

BUT

general naval hvac is still a monopsony / l1 world

management itself has basically said there is no magical pricing advantage on ordinary end-to-end tenders

so don't take 64% market share and hallucinate a software multiple

the fortress is the qualification + installed-base + spares layer

the contested ground is turnkey hvac

this distinction matters A LOT if the next order is ordinary hvac versus a submarine / sole-source order

THE SPARES FLYWHEEL -- boring shit that can make the p&l sexy

spares + service were ~30% of revenue in fy25

then fell to ~7% in fy26

management explicitly attributed part of the margin drop to that mix shift

long term they want spares back to ~15-20%

and the disclosed fy26 order tape already contained ~₹44.7cr of spares / repair orders

why do i care

cus every ship / submarine / fleet-support platform installed today becomes a future service + spares annuity

the more installed base shree builds, the more of the future revenue mix can come from stuff with qualification, urgency and replacement economics already embedded

if that mix starts rebuilding while revenue scales, 20-22% "steady state" margin may turn out to be conservative

IF

show me the print first

SUBMARINES -- the one catalyst that can change quality, not just quantity

this is the part i care about more than another vanilla ₹50cr hvac order

management says shree is the only indian firm that has indigenized the complete submarine hvac system

if the first meaningful submarine order prints, the question changes

ordinary hvac = qualified but l1 / competitive economics

if a submarine order actually comes through the sole-source / pac route, that could mean different pricing + repeat + retrofit + spares economics

that's when i rebuild the earnings path AND ask whether the exit multiple deserves to change

until it prints, zero heroics

pipeline isn't revenue
authorization isn't an order
tam isn't cash

THE DC OPTIONALITY -- optional, not base case

smardt / oil-free data-centre chillers are interesting

but public management commentary says zero dc revenue in fy27 and revenue only starts trickling from fy28

perfect

i don't need it for the current thesis

if it works, great
if it doesn't, defence has to carry the base case

the first disclosed dc order is when i care

before that it's a slide

THE RED MONTH -- one thing i'd correct from my original tweet

i said ignore the red cus pre-ipo unlock bears were selling

too confident

what i can prove is there WAS a real unlock event

31 july volume was ~13.7x the prior median
delivery was ~59.8%
one identifiable pre-ipo holder dumped 182,500 shares
and a much larger locked cohort became tradeable from 3 aug

the stock found buyers around the old ~₹295-310 breakout zone and then reclaimed the highs

so yes, the red month included a genuine finite unlock-supply event

but i'm not gonna pretend every red candle was mechanically caused by unlock selling

the better observation is this

a large known supply event hit
the old breakout zone held
the market absorbed a large chunk of it
then price went back into discovery

that's a much cleaner read

THE YASHO RHYME -- where i think i'm either early or completely full of shit

yasho

capacity already built
utilisation starts rising
customer commitments improve
working capital starts falling
margins explode
debt collapses relative to ebitda
market front-runs the print
numbers validate it
price goes vertical

shree

infrastructure already supports much more revenue
working capital has already taken the first giant step down
price has broken out BEFORE the key order season
reg-30 lets us watch inflow in real time
spares can repair mix
submarines can improve business quality
h1 will tell us whether the order book actually reset

same exact business

no

same possible market mechanism

YES

MY SCORECARD -- how i'm grading this so i can't rewrite history later

VISUAL ONLY

price discovery + chart rhyme, nothing more

that's where we start

EARLY FUNDAMENTAL CONFIRMATION

a material aug-sep order lands and meaningfully changes h1 inflow / closing-book math

now price may genuinely have been front-running the order cycle

STRONG FUNDAMENTAL CONFIRMATION

my predeclared h1 book test is roughly ≥₹350cr
plus execution remains healthy
plus wc continues improving
plus spares / mix starts moving the right way

that's when the old earnings path probably needs to be rewritten

THESIS RESET

first meaningful submarine order
first real dc order
or another event that changes the quality / duration of earnings rather than just adding the same type of backlog

re-underwrite from scratch

INVALIDATING

ordering season disappoints
book refill doesn't happen
h1 book drops below my ~₹250cr re-underwrite line
wc reverses hard
or price goes vertical while business evidence stays flat

then i was doing astrology on candlesticks

WHAT I AM NOT DOING

i'm not saying shree will 4x because yasho did

i'm not using a fractal as a price target

i'm not assuming the market "knows something"

and i'm not giving the founder credit for future execution before he prints it

price can be early

price can also be fucking wrong

WHAT I AM DOING

watching chronology

did price break first

did the business then validate it

did the earnings denominator move

did capital efficiency improve with growth

did the moat deepen into better economics or just more low-margin volume

that's it

if those answers keep coming back yes, i'll keep re-underwriting against the new earnings path instead of selling solely because the candles look vertical

if the answers come back no, the fractal dies no matter how beautiful the candles look

also funny little coincidence

kacholia + bengal finance sit in shree too

same capital ecosystem that has shown up around yasho before

fun coincidence, zero thesis weight

still made my balls tingle

my journal, not advice, dyor

i own shreeref, so yes, i'm biased as hell

treat every bullish inference above as interested testimony

that's exactly why the confirmation + invalidation lines are written BEFORE the next order / h1 print, so i can't conveniently remember the thesis differently later

u plebs bet on price

i bet on founder execution

biased as hell

the numbers still get the final vote

back to sleep

[Deepanshu Giri @lunarastro108]

@Acromatics23 Telling everyone again- Metal, Infra, Energy, Chemicals- I have same stocks from last 3 years, booked profit on some and waiting for some to become multibaggers.

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@lunarastro108 Energy- renewables or non-renewable. Ty

[Bansal @Parthbansal22]

@rohiitian @RMSGrowth @manishlalwani9 @Soumil_IITB @sachprat07 @cpankaj Wish you the very best!

[Rohit Ramasubramanian @rohiitian]

Wrote a small piece on our investment thesis in Merritronix as @RMSGrowth. Their client base, product profile (the PCBs they make sell for INR 3-7L per board) and obsolescence engineering are not easy to replicate

No buy sell reco