paes

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@ArtemisConsort High-level math is almost the opposite of rote linearity: the intuition is seeing hidden structure before the symbols have caught up.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@apoliticalkosmo The Germans have a word for this: Dönerschönheit

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@williameijer @williameijer Cuckonomics
(Noun. Macroeconomics / Behavioral Economics)

The formal fiscal application of avian brood parasitism; a state-enforced model where the host demographic works to exhaustion to provide resources for a nest that contains none of its own DNA.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@williameijer 1. tax average guys to fund female independence
2. price those same guys out of the market
3, use the resulting birth rate collapse as an excuse to import permanent welfare clients
he is literally forced to finance both its own evolutionary exit and its replacement.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@celtic_ma1888 Selective empathy: instant concern for the hypothetical victim of racism, silence about raped girls, murdered innocents, drowned migrants and the traffickers empowered by open-border politics. Real compassion counts all victims, not only the politically useful ones.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@xwanyex I do not agree with it, but "violent criminal" and "disabled unborn child" are not the same moral category.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

You turned collapsed governments and a budget France can't pass into "a system." But your two claims cancel each other out.
A release valve only works if there is real pressure behind it. If French anger is just theatre, there is no pressure. You cannot run a pressure valve on fake steam.
So pick one. Were the 2023 riots, with roughly €1 billion in damage, thousands arrested, and people dead, just performance? Was the Yellow Vest movement performance too? Because that movement forced the state to scrap a fuel tax.
Anger that makes a government retreat is real. That was my argument.
A valve that vents for twenty years while debt, deficits, and the ability to govern all get worse is not strength. It is a sedative.
And notice the retreat. You have stopped arguing that France is strong and started arguing that Germany is weak. Those are different arguments. Milei said France has the bleakest future in Europe. "The Germans are repressed" does not answer that.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@aryehazan @cold_and_quiet the decoupling of decision-makers from the consequences of their decisions is the actual rot.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@YveK22 Man muss bis 1993 zurück:

Berlin-Köpenick: Gruppenvergewaltigung einer 14-Jährigen in einer Gartenlaube. Drei Täter, laut dpa/ntv/SZ/ZEIT Männer aus Rumänien. Sie waren auf Diebestour.

Zufallsopfer: ja. Öffentlicher Raum: eher nein, Gartenlaube.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@LiberalMut @ronzheimer Bürger: "Ich will, dass die Migrationspolitik sich ändert."
Establishment: "Aber Höcke! Aber Russland!"
Bürger: "Ja, aber meine Stadt ist nicht wiederzuerkennen."
Establishment: "HÖCKE! RUSSLAND! BRANDMAUER!"

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@eugyppius1 'You can always go on another day' is the worst argument of the paternalist. You can always speak on another topic. You can always travel to another city. You can always worship another god.
The point is whether the state has the right to eliminate the one you wanted.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@eugyppius1 The German word for guilt and the German word for debt are the same: Schuld.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@dystopiangf Sulloway 1996, "Born to Rebel." A high degree of openness and a rebellious temper are the main drivers of both scientific revolutionaries and political dissidents. These same personality traits have persisted for centuries, despite different ideologies.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@ArtemisConsort Almost nobody in history thought they were the villain. The hallmark of a truly dangerous figure is the absence of any doubt. Evil with a clear conscience is nothing but ideology.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

If you are interested:
Karni, Schmeidler & Vind (1983), "On State Dependent Preferences and Subjective Probabilities," axiomatizes the state-dependent-utility objection.
Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), "Maxmin Expected Utility with Non-Unique Prior," formalizes state-dependence to maximin (i.e., to Rawls)

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@aryehazan It is about computing expected utility weighted by P(scenario). So for the breakfast scenario:
E[U(rule)] = P(meeting)·U(rule, meeting) + P(famine)·U(rule, famine)
The veil averages utility values weighted by demographic prior.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

On (2): The response is to integrate over P(scenario | "didn't have breakfast"). Courts assign liability when the mechanism is uncertain. The veil assigns probabilities over identity clusters. It does not require a coherent counterfactual self.
Nagel is the stronger objection, but only against empathy-style versions of the veil.

To keep (2), you need one of the two:
1. probability assignment requires phenomenology, which would also break insurance, courts, and applied Bayesian reasoning generally, or
2. the veil requires phenomenology in a way those other Bayesian procedures do not.
That second move needs an actual asymmetry. I do not see one.

[paes @PascalFameyer]

@williameijer Every functioning civilization criminalizes male impulse and culturally channels female conformity. Law catches the first. Sacred narrative was the only thing that ever solved the second, but now the culture is the attacker.