I had ChatGPT read the document of the past 3 months: So far, the case shows both risks and opportunities for AmBase. On the positive side, the court has kept key witness testimony (Phillips) admissible, plaintiffs have strengthened the record with contemporaneous valuations in the Lender Action, and they introduced supportive precedent (PJT Holdings) on enforcing contractual rights and indemnity. Meanwhile, the defense is weakened: Kasowitz LLP is moving to withdraw due to nonpayment, signaling financial and organizational strain that could delay or disrupt their strategy. The main risk is the court’s finding of grossly negligent spoliation, with remedies deferred to trial—this could still hurt AmBase.
➡️ Overall, the direction looks cautiously favorable to AmBase, especially if the Equity Put Right and indemnity arguments gain traction and the defendants struggle with counsel changes
UBS Downgrades $CLMT to Sell from Neutral, Lowers PT to $15 from $20.50
"We downgrade our rating on CLMT to Sell for the following reasons: 1) Negative estimate revisions - we estimate that the Blenders Tax Credit (BTC) going to Production Tax Credit (PTC) would be a $100M annual headwind for EBITDA in 2025. Consensus EBITDA estimates indicate earnings to be up ~$180M YoY for 2025. Given that the 2024 earnings got the full benefit of BTC, we see ~45% potential downside to 2025E earnings and 56% downside to 2026E earnings. 2) Uncertainty on the DOE loan - The Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) has informed CLMT that the first tranche of ~$782M under the guaranteed loan facility that was previously approved for funding will now undergo a tactical delay to confirm alignment with White House priorities. There is a chance the first tranche could be canceled or delayed. Even if CLMT does manage to get the first tranche ($782M), there will still be questions over whether it can secure the remaining $662M needed for SAF expansion and its longer-term growth profile. 3) Competition - with other large-scale projects ramping up (PSX Rodeo and MPC Martinez) and DGD now producing 235M gallons of SAF, it seems the economics are going to get more challenging."
Analyst: Manav Gupta
I’m going to give 10 random people that repost this and follow me $10,000 for fun (from my $250,000 on the $VINE trade)
I’ll pick the winners in 72 hours
President Joe Biden has decided to officially block Nippon Steel’s proposed purchase of U.S. Steel, a once-iconic American company whose sale to a foreign buyer he publicly opposed for months, @washingtonpost
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New investment thesis. This one is a former fintwit fav but is now subject to much derision. Another one from my fav fishing pond, 🇬🇧. As I lay out my thesis, I'm gonna swap UK vernacular for proper US English. I bought $VTY at ~6.80/share. Long thread coming (1/n)