Pat

Baseball Analytics | Red Sox Mainly* | Substack: PatSullivan05

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

@JayRBP More or less I think it starts with establishing a pitch first against lefties because he does very well getting ahead.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

It may be a foregone conclusion, but I'm curious if the Red Sox would ever get Bello back to throwing the way he did in 2022 and simplify the arsenal. None of which the two breakers and cutter have worked for him, and he was throwing much harder with a better four-seam.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Whether it was by design or a coincidence, but I think part of the Red Sox May offensive success is hitting their peaks in first-pitch aggressiveness and have started to improve their 2-strike chase%.

Re: dashed line is the April 26th coaching staff change.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Jarren Duran essentially had Spring Training in April and Opening Day in May. There was a bunch of mechanical tweets, including straightening his stance angle, moving back his distance of plate, and closing his feet.

May stat line (130 PA): .261/.331/.548, .345 xwOBA, 137 wRC+

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

@cade_cavin55 In theory, yes, but the relationship doesn't appear to be universal. It seems to depend on the pitcher's underlying movement profile and how they're creating the cutter and or four-seamer.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Wanted to test a theory to see if increased cutter usage increases, there’s more susception into fastballs degrading due to cutter cue.

Could be another element to this, but it's pretty inconclusive. There’s some actionable signal, but it’s relatively noisy with flat indication.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

2/

Just surface area scratching here, but my hypothesis here is that getting to pull his front-side more is getting him to a better lead-leg block to more efficient energy being created. Topped out at 96 on the left and bottomed out at 89 on the right.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

There's probably a better pitching org that can unlock SWR. Taj Bradley (R) is basically SWR's successful alternate-universe twin at this point.

[MLB Trade Rumors @mlbtraderumors]

Twins Designate Simeon Woods Richardson For Assignment https://t.co/q6a3Q6AWVg

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

2/

Stats for context:

.344 xwOBA
89.3 Average EV
94.0 Air EV
105.6 90thEV
21.5% Hard-Hit LA
34.9% LA+SweetSpot%
91% Z-Contact%
18.5% Whiff%
18.8% Chase%
44.9% Chase Whiff%
15.4% Pull-Air%

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Nathan Humphreys (PHI) caught my eye looking at Single-A hitter data. His bat-to-ball data (and in the air), concomitant with his tremendous exit velocities profile very well-rounded. Haven't seen a hitter with a whopping 39% Swing% excel as well as him!
https://t.co/evMuhbjkOc

[Phillies Player Development @PhilsPlayerDev]

A walk-off double from Nathan Humphreys secured the win for the @Threshers last night!

Humphreys finished the night with 3 hits.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Been thinking about the future of Tatsuya Imai (1) and some arbitrary suggestions: can Imai grow his arsenal like two other top starters (i.e., Paul Skenes (2) and José Soriano (3))?

All low-er slot righties with similar makeup, kill spin; maybe future sweeper/splinker for Imai?

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Updated this to where Optimal Attack Angle model estimates swing efficiency and bat-ball interaction quality through a physics-based framework, and it has gotten moderate descriptive relationship results to contact quality.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Because attack angle represents the flatness of a hitter’s bat path through the zone, I iterated attack angle called “Optimal Attack Angle,” which accounts for how well a hitter’s swing path matches the incoming pitch approach angle on top of what attack angle already does.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

@georgerlewis Yes! I specifically used contact rate because most of the leaders tended to run higher contact rates overall.

OAA explains part of the contact skill with the bat-path/plane efficiency piece, but not the entire outcome, and as it should be since there's other swing nuance.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Because attack angle represents the flatness of a hitter’s bat path through the zone, I iterated attack angle called “Optimal Attack Angle,” which accounts for how well a hitter’s swing path matches the incoming pitch approach angle on top of what attack angle already does.

[Remi Bunikiewicz @RBunikiewicz]

The Other Fastball:

Sasaki needs another pitch he can zone and get weak contact early or behind in counts.

Although Chris mentioned a 1S grip, I think a Splinker would be ideal for Sasaki given his current Split and hand-size.

Sasaki kills spin and throws hard.

Grips:

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

2/

There's only a select handful of guys I can think that facilitate this (e.g. Dauri Moreta, Tatsuya Imai, José Ureña), which I believes comes from having the outlier ability in holding pronation longer, turning the ball over, and that by releasing off their index finger.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

Been thinking about the next pitching revelation: should the higher efficiency slider throwers could/should have the ability to throw both forward and reverse sliders; same way we think about more pitchers throwing two offspeeds that mimic one another?

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

@georgerlewis Both things can be true here, I think. Both attack angle and optimal attack angle are fairly universal in themselves.

I feel like a 13% relationship vs contact% is somewhat significant, even if optimal attack angle itself is not independently predictive of offensive production

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

2026 biggest release_x differentials. Mainly has to do with whose changed mound positions baring some outliers.

[Pat @PatSullivan05]

@RBunikiewicz @thebabygiraffe3 @joe_douglas_ Congrats Remi, well deserved!!!