Staying married, a happy household, evidence of the parents working hard, childhood sports and watch all competitions, lots of hugs, reward merit, punish only egregious misbehavior, don't yell, restrict social media, monitor messages through 8th grade, the real expectation is college and academic excellence without pressure from parents, get children reading books early, no pacifiers, respond to needs not wants, babies sleep on their own through the night by 6 months, identify develop and support any talent or aptiude, one sport after age 10 is ok, communicate openly and easily with kids through grade 12, allow mistakes, and leave them alone in college. And then hope.
You want to experience a true blackpill moment.
Bring a 6’4 Chad who’s unemployed, lives in his grandma’s basement, has no future, and sports bets full time with you to your nearest bar.
Also bring your friend who’s 5’5, a software engineer with a master’s degree, his own house, a paid off car, and an 800 credit score.
Bring both of them together to the bar. Put them side by side. For every group of girls you see, ask them which guy they’d choose. Tell each girl exactly what each guy brings to the table.
100% of the girls will choose the 6’4 Chad before even finding out he’s unemployed and lives in his grandma’s basement. In fact, many would still choose him even after finding out.
You want to know why?
Because you’re judged before you ever open your mouth based on your genetic makeup.
Tu t'appelles Hans, t'as 31 ans et tu sors du match de la coupe du monde.
L'Allemagne s'est faite humilier par le Paraguay (il y a plus d'Allemands dans leur équipe que dans la tienne).
Le lendemain 6h45 tu retournes bosser, taxé à 60% pour financer la transition énergétique, les changements de sexe et les aides sociales distribuées par ton gouvernement aux migrants Érythréens qui se déclarent homosexuels pour rentrer dans les cases.
Cet été, tu le passes sous 38 degrés et sans clim clim parce que ton parti écologiste l'a qualifiée d'arme de destruction massive.
Au supermarché la bratwurst, tes saucisses préférées ont été remplacées par du soja gris KlimaFleisch subventionné par tes impôts pour sauver les Pingouins.
Dans ton open-space a 27 degrés tu as déclaré que tu étais du genre "divers" car c'est devenu le seul moyen d'espérer des promotions avec la discrimination positive et le DEI.
L'eau chaude coûte 18 centimes le litre depuis que le gaz russe est coupé, tu te laves en 3 minutes montre en main et ta propriétaire t'envoie des recommandés parce que la consommation dépasse le seuil énergétique fédéral. Tu pleures sous l'eau tiède.
À 16 ans tu manifestais contre les centrales nucléaires et t'as élu Angela Merkel qui a exécuté. Maintenant, le gaz russe est coupé, ton industrie du moteur thermique est en berne et l'électricité est un luxe: tu penses même à brûler tes meubles IKEA pour te chauffer cet hiver.
Pendant ce temps, ton cousin éloigné Friedrich au Paraguay paye 0% d'impôts, démarre son pick-up Ford V8 5 litres et s'apprête à fêter la victoire autour d'un asado en buvant de la bière allemande.
Ça va être un été de merde Hans, et c'est que le début.
In this business, your P&L is almost always in some form of drawdown. You don’t need to know where the market is going — you only need to keep the drawdown as small as possible.
The first step is to understand the historical drawdown profile of whatever triggered your directional trade in the first place. Use that as your stop. When the stop is hit, treat it as valuable data: review what happened, revise the plan, and move on.
Trading directionally without a clear understanding of the return distribution is one of the fastest ways to blow up.
I know the indicator in the 1st chart is difficult to interpret or replicate. That is why I continue to push building your own overnight P&L curve for the SP500 (2nd chart). Going short when a spread is positive is not a good idea. It is the only way to understand whether a drawdown is "worth fighting for".
BOFA: HEDGE THE RALLY
Bank of America is urging investors to hedge further S&P 500 gains, warning the recent rally is losing momentum and could give way to a “three-wave correction” through September.
Technical strategist Paul Ciana sees the index falling as low as 6,850—about 8% below current levels—and warns that even new highs could be a “head fake” before a broader pullback.
Two Paths: (1) the bleeding was stopped last Friday with the a last second gap-fill needle, and the pattern has changed to a more complex path. (2) the light blue one is an expanding diagonal, finishing the 5-wave serie; whereas the purple points to a triangle-type consolidation