Patrick

Founder of Big Picture Trading, co-host of the MacroVoices and Market Huddle podcasts and options instructor for the TMX Montreal Exchange

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Copper remains heavily crowded while natural gas sits at the absolute opposite extreme. That’s one of the sharpest positioning gaps on the board.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6zw3U&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

WTI traded above $100, but speculative net positioning barely moved.
Gross longs rose by 21,084 contracts. Gross shorts rose by 21,758.
Where are the net buyers?

read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd700L4…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Agricultural positioning is still heavily crowded. Large specs are maxed out in corn and bean meal, with soybeans and cotton close behind, while lumber sits near the opposite extreme.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6zw3U&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Yen bulls went all-in at potentially the worst moment.
Large specs shifted 109,563 contracts more bullish, pushing the one-year score from 72 to 100��just before the yen sold off.
Early or trapped?

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd700L4…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

FX positioning is sharply divided. Large specs are leaning hard into the yen and Bitcoin, while the euro and pound sit near the opposite extreme.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6zw3U&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Natural-gas gross shorts climbed to 529,122 as large specs reached a five-year net-positioning low.
The squeeze fuel is there. Price still needs to light the match. Will the Widowmaker strike again?

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd6ZsVw…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

The bond curve is still heavily split. Large specs are maxed long the 2Y and 5Y, while the 30Y sits near the opposite extreme.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6yYem&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Massive pre-Fed rotation in five-year Treasuries:
Large specs shifted 270,127 contracts more bullish—adding 130,632 longs and covering 139,495 shorts.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd700L4…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Small specs finally chased the S&P 500 breakout, then hit the brakes.
Their three-year positioning score collapsed from 83 to 53 as gross shorts surged by 56,482 contracts.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd6ZsVw…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Agricultural positioning is extremely crowded. Large specs are maxed out across corn, sugar, wheat, bean meal, and cotton, while lumber sits near the opposite extreme.

read the heat map for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6zw3U&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

FX positioning is unusually split. Large specs are heavily long the dollar and franc, while the euro, yen, Aussie, and Bitcoin sit much lower on the scale.

Read the heat map for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6zw3U&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Natural gas bears are pushing their luck.
Gross large-spec shorts have surged above 510,000 contracts, the most extreme since early 2020. Massive squeeze fuel is building. Now we wait for price to light the match.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd6ZsVw…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Copper is still one of the most crowded trades on the board, while natural gas has collapsed to the opposite extreme. That gap is hard to ignore.

read the heat map for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6yYem&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

The curve is sending a pretty unusual signal. Large specs are heavily long the 2Y and 5Y, while 10Y and 30Y exposure sits near the floor.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/6nEfw6zw3U&…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

WTI is breaking to multi-month highs, but the speculative crowd still hasn't chased it.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd700L4…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Russell large Spec bears keep piling in. Price keeps ignoring them. Which side will prevail.
Large specs added ~18,000 shorts last week. Keep squeezing higher and those bears become rocket fuel

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd6ZsVw…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Corn has ripped 15% in two weeks to 52-week highs—driven mainly by shorts covering, not fresh speculative longs.
What happens when the longs finally join the party?

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd700L4…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Will the Widowmaker strike again?
Natural gas gross shorts just hit 514,000 contracts—the largest since January 2020.
The fuel for a squeeze is there. The price trigger isn’t—yet.

Read the full chart for yourself: https://t.co/LS0kd700L4…

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

Vote! Top 5!

https://t.co/pr4PML9QEU

[Patrick @PatrickCeresnan]

This cause is close to my heart - please sign: https://t.co/WEIPUZO64c