Patrick Jensen

Investing - Sharing my thoughts to look back on.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

I think Regal Rexnord ($RRX) is one of the more interesting public-market ways to play the humanoid robotics supply chain.

RRX has disclosed ~$40M of humanoid orders, exposure across 30–50 axes of motion, and three unnamed U.S. humanoid OEM customers.

My view: Tesla is the strongest candidate among them. 1/6

$RRX, $TSLA, $CCXI, $VPG.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@Quality_stocksA Other great names and less talked about are: solana:BRUNa9ZehuwjQoMYDU9rfrVEuZhtKLkeVE3E24Jspump, $DIG, $LSI, $SGN and $ASB

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@mathlonning The same can be said for Serenity. So many stocks shoot up after his tweets. Different times in the market currently.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Impressive IPO day for Unitree.

I’m glad the talk about $INDI and $CCIX getting pumped once Unitree went public is finally done.

$CCIX is still a shitco, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it get pumped and trade similarly to some of the EV names that went public during the 2020–2021 mania.

Will be interesting to see how Unitree performs, both as a business and in terms of how the stock price trades once the initial IPO excitement settles down.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@Jasonsmys @mathlonning At that time they got mega grants.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@SingularityRes More at the same price is available 4 months later!

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Q1 results and full-year outlook from Harmonic Drive Systems $6324:

• Revenue: ¥16.68B vs. ¥16.20B expected, up 23.6% YoY; 3% beat.
EPS: ¥13.46 vs ¥10.60 expected, up from -¥0.40; 27% beat.
• Operating profit: ¥1.84B vs. ¥122M
• Operating margin: 11.0% vs. 0.9%
• Orders: ¥24.1B, +55.7%
• FY operating-profit guidance raised 37% to ¥8.5B

Updated full-year outlook was mixed:

• Revenue guidance: ¥74.5B vs. ¥72.7B consensus -above.
• Operating-profit guidance: ¥8.5B vs. ¥9.1B consensus - below.
• Net-income guidance: ¥6.0B vs. ¥6.45B consensus - below.

The AI-robot category, which includes humanoids:

AI-robot sales fell to ¥296M from ¥871M in Q4, but orders reached their highest disclosed quarterly level at ¥1.25B - up 24% YoY and 4% QoQ.

Another strong quarter in AI-robot sales following the ¥1.20B of order intake in Q4. Great momentum. HDS could be on its way to its strongest four-quarter stretch yet in this segment.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

$SEZL is down 23% on this beat-and-raise. Wow.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

SEZZLE $SEZL Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $149.7M (Est. $135M) 🟢; +51.7% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.13 (Est. $1.03) 🟢; +61.4% YoY
🔹 GMV: $1.3B; +37.9% YoY
🔹 Active Subscribers: 854,000; +76.4% YoY

Raises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Total Revenue Growth: 35%
🔹 Adjusted Net Income: $185.0M; from $180.0M
🔹 Adj. Net Income per Diluted Share: $5.25; from $5.10

Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Gross Merchandise Volume: $1.3B (Est. $1.20B) 🟢; +37.9% YoY
🔹 Active Subscribers: 854,000; +76.4% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $55.0M; +52.3% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $40.8M (Est. $36M) 🟢; +47.7% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $58.0M; +51.3% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 38.8%; flat YoY

Comments:
🔸 “With SezzleCash now live and Sezzle Send launching in August, we are another step closer to realizing our vision of an all-in-one financial platform for our consumers,”

🔸 “This momentum supports our third raise to FY2026 guidance, taking Adjusted Net Income to $185 million and Adjusted Net Income per Diluted Share to $5.25.”

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@MarcalCarbo Agreed, I’m concerned. The stock is far from cheap now. It needs to beat expectations - there is very little room for error in this market currently, it seems.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Figure has produced around 1,000 Figure 03 robots so far this year. It will be interesting to see where total production ends up by year-end. Hopefully, @adcock_brett keeps sharing the production numbers🤞

[Brett Adcock @adcock_brett]

Jensen is back in the house!!

Jensen and Nvidia have been phenomenal partners. I'm excited to be working closely together as we massively scale up this year

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Very interesting. I regard Novanta as one of the most compelling public humanoid plays and definitely worth following. Management has not disclosed its dollar content per humanoid, but it appears likely to be meaningful.

Tagging a few people who may find this humanoid development interesting: @AtlasShrug1 @ThematicTrader @crux_capital_

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Strong Q2 and highly interesting humanoid commentary from $NOVT.

Novanta received its first significant servo-drive orders, supporting the deployment of hundreds of humanoids in customers’ testing and learning facilities.

This matches one leading humanoid company incredibly well - both in terms of timing and how the first robots will be used.

Tesla said in its Q2 shareholder update:

“The initial Optimus builds will be used in our Optimus Academy for training data collection and further functionality development.”

The timing also lines up. Novanta’s Q2 ended July 3, shortly before Tesla’s planned Optimus production start around August. An early-July supply-chain report also indicated that Tesla had placed specific orders covering several hundred August units.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@crux_capital_ Unfortunately not - nothing beyond the Austin comment.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

1. Prices will decline as production scales. VPG’s content per robot for Customer 1 is expected to fall from approximately $1,200 during the prototype stage to $150–250 at scale. That is just volume pricing with the same robot content. I also find it difficult to imagine Tesla or Figure cutting costs through redesigns that materially reduce quality or capabilities. For humanoids to become economically attractive in Western markets, the price likely needs to fall toward $30-$50k.

I do not see smaller wheeled-robot companies as serious long-term competitors, perhaps aside from certain niches. If two-legged humanoids are eventually produced in the millions, economies of scale could also allow them to compete on price with lower-volume wheeled humanoids.

2. I don't think it would be easy for Customer 1 (Tesla) to insource the torque sensors VPG supplies for several reasons: VPG is already deeply embedded in the design, the economics become less attractive for insourcing at VPG’s scaled prices, and VPG owns numerous US patents covering products and manufacturing processes.

Also regarding insourcing and Tesla, Tesla is highly vertically integrated in its vehicle business, but it still buys thousands of components and complex assemblies from third parties. For example, Tesla sources sensors, either directly or indirectly through third-party suppliers, despite producing millions of vehicles. Many of the reasons are the same as those I mentioned regarding VPG: specialized engineering, manufacturing know-how, economics and patents. Insourcing is not necessarily easy, but I agree that it remains a long-term risk, especially for some components more than others.

"Unitree is the golden standand of humanoid scale, and they build customized tactile sensors in-house." I cannot find evidence that Unitree manufactures these sensors entirely in-house from the ground up. From what I know, Unitree likely designs or customizes them itself, potentially together with the external supplier that manufactures them.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Regal Rexnord, another industrial company with exposure to robotics, reported earnings today. $RRX is down 17% following earnings, likely driven by:

1. Adjusted EPS was $2.99 but included a $0.39 IEEPA tariff-refund benefit. Excluding it, EPS was $2.60, so just in line.

2. The FY2026 EPS midpoint remained $10.60 but now includes $0.57 of refunds, implying an underlying midpoint of ~$10.03.

3. Underlying FY2026 adjusted EBITDA-margin guidance fell from 22.2% to 21.3%, excluding refunds.

4. FCF guidance was cut from $650M to $600M.

5. Revenue missed by ~$20M, while the IPS and PES sales and margin outlooks were lowered. Total sales guidance was maintained, and AMC’s sales outlook was raised.

After Q1, former CEO Louis Pinkham explicitly said potential IEEPA refunds were not embedded in guidance and could help RRX “achieve or exceed” its outlook.

Seems like a bit of an overreaction today? A beat-and-raise was likely expected because of the IEEPA refund by the market?

Some positive and noteworthy takeaways from the call:

1. AMC continued to perform extremely well. Organic sales were up 15.6% and orders 17.1%.

2. Orders remained genuinely strong. Enterprise orders were up 8.8%

3. New CEO Aamir Paul said he had already met the CEO of one of the largest US robotics companies and planned to visit the company in Austin. This obviously points to Apptronik.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Ugly day for $VPG’s share price, but I still believe the business remains well positioned to do great in the long term.

Several factors likely contributed to today’s 27% decline:

1. Elevated expectations following the Q1 blowout and the stock’s enormous 2026 run.

2. A significant earnings and margin miss. Adjusted EPS was $0.04 versus the $0.19 consensus, while adjusted operating margin fell to 1.7%. Currency movements, higher material and labor costs, and unfavorable product mix all pressured profitability.

3. Revenue of $83.9 million fell below management’s $85-90 million guidance, partly because an ERP implementation delayed approximately $3 million of KELK shipments.

4. In Q1, management expected Q2 humanoid revenue to more than double from approximately $600,000, implying more than $1.2 million. Instead, VPG reported only $320,000 of humanoid sales.

5. Customer 2 is reevaluating and refining its designs, which creates uncertainty around VPG’s final content position.

6. Bookings softened in Weighing Solutions and Measurement Systems, while Q3 guidance implied only modest sequential revenue growth.

There were also several positives:

1. Total bookings reached $95.5 million, with sensors achieving a record book-to-bill ratio of 1.44.

2. The approximately $3 million of delayed KELK shipments were not cancelled. The orders remain in backlog and are expected to be shipped by year-end.

3. Customer 1 formally nominated VPG as a vendor for its expected H2 humanoid production ramp.

5. The latest disclosures further strengthen my belief that Customer 1 is Tesla. VPG’s comments regarding expected production volumes and employee training align closely with Tesla’s recent Optimus announcements.

The Customer 2 update also appears consistent with Figure. Brett Adcock has indicated that Figure is approaching the final design of Figure 04, which aligns with VPG’s statement that Customer 2 is reevaluating and refining its designs. This could be a risk to VPG’s existing content, but also an opportunity to expand its content in the redesigned platform. An update would likely come in Q3 or Q4.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

1. Leading U.S. humanoid developers, including Tesla and Figure, have made their strategic direction clear, as have the leading Chinese robotics companies. Their objective is to develop fully autonomous, general-purpose robots capable of performing human tasks in environments designed for people. For that ambition, a bipedal form factor is the logical choice.

2. I agree that humanoid OEMs will eventually insource many components, especially companies like Tesla. However, VPG has several factors working in its favour that should reduce the likelihood of its sensors being displaced, imo.

https://t.co/gF6hHdEFOc

[Brett Adcock @adcock_brett]

Wheeled robots are an utter dead end

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

$VPG is not currently being valued solely on its humanoid opportunity. Yes, humanoid revenue remains low because the industry is still largely pre-production. 😅

At this stage, the most important metric is design wins - especially with the key humanoid OEMs.

In contrast, IMO there is a high chance that $CCXI ultimately goes to zero, likely through a long, slow decline - just like many of the EV shitcos did after the 2021 hype.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@jasonschips Management had to revise the original guidance after putting too much trust in Elon's Optimus production estimates😬

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

Timken $TKR is down over 6% on the Q2 results.

The quarter was solid, but expectations were likely higher. The sell-off appears to reflect a combination of:

1. A larger beat and guidance raise was likely expected
2. An $8M tariff refund boosted earnings
4. Timken was near ATH and was priced to perfection

Regarding humanoids, management provided no material new updates.

[Patrick Jensen @PatrickJensenX]

@crux_capital_ That sums up the opportunity perfectly👌