SPX gapped 47 to the shelf, lost 19 on air, then got lifted 55 by a bond bid with no source.
$SMH −4.8%,banks −4%, $GLD −1.8%. $IGV +5% carried a flat tape alone.
$VIX +8% and implied correlation +17% on a −0.5% day. Up moves no longer sell vol.
The bond bid was sold back by the close. The lever reversed before the bell.
Shadow hands that no longer care to be in the shadows...
LS
History says this setup leans hard lower.
When SPX is above monthly Value Area High while MACD histogram is negative, the next 10 sessions have been bearish 82.2% of the time.
Forward returns:
1d: -0.64% avg, 67.5% lower
5d: -2.38% avg, 83.6% lower
10d: -2.96% avg, 82.2% lower
Median path: -0.35%, -2.08%, -2.49%.
Outlier: worst 10d stretch was -23.39%.
Trigger point: measured from today's close at 7,563.63.
Grounding: 292 samples across 30 years, with recent triggers on May 26-27.
#DayTrading #ES_F
@ZTheTrader I am sick that I missed this rally!! Then, I was too scared to jump in front once it got going, dreading a big drop. It hasn't dropped, just don't know how to position myself like a lot of people.
Imagine the stock market is a giant trampoline and everyone is jumping on it.
Three different referees who usually argue about everything just looked at the trampoline and said the same thing at the same time: too many people are jumping, nobody is holding the safety ropes, and the springs underneath are stretched way too tight.
When all three referees who never agree suddenly agree, you start watching where you put your feet.
That's it. That's the whole post.
Live tape check ⚡
SPX is pressing 7,342.23 (+1.14%) while VIX sits at 17.01.
Strong tape rewards preparation, not late chasing.
If you’re already in, manage it. If you missed it, don’t let FOMO become your setup.
#DayTrading#ES_F