Ionut Patru

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN SAYS HORMUZ DEAL CLOSE, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN

Iran says it is “very close” to a shipping agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, but warned the deal alone won’t reopen the vital waterway.

Tehran says reopening depends on Washington accepting additional conditions, including compensation.

The US says it will lift its blockade of Iranian ports once unrestricted commercial shipping resumes.

Meanwhile, the UAE accused Iran of another missile strike on a vessel in the strait.

[Ionut Patru @Patru3Ionut]

Just a thought, last leg down

[GeoMetric @GeoMetric_9]

The scarier observations from this for $BTC

1. When I measure the number of days it took from the cycle top to the outer-right circumference, $BTC topped exactly 140 days prior both in 2017 and 2021.
For this cycle that would be 29th September 2025 less than 10 days away.

Note that the Altcoin market continued to run & went parabolic after BTC topped in 2017 into it's retrace.

2. The subsequent bear market bottom came exactly 238 days after it reached the outer-right circumference both in 2017 and 2021.
For the next bear market, that would be exactly on 12th October 2026.

These are synchronicities I've stumbled upon that I am presenting to you. Make of it what you may.

[Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

Blow-Off Top → Recession → Roaring 20’s

My Cycle Outlook for the Months Ahead

🧵👇

[EVE Frontier @EVE_Frontier]

The wild Frontier stretches out before you: gain permanent pre-launch access with Founder Access, starting 10 December.

Watch our overview in the latest video, revealed today: https://t.co/iFI3cz09tV

[andreibratucu🦇🔊 @andreibratucu]

The false prophets of the "New Media"

Dear international friends and users of X,

We are witnessing a dangerous situation unfold where Romania is being used by popular accounts on the platform to create panic and a false image of what is actually happening in the world.

One of those accounts is @marionawfal, whom I choose to reference because I met him a few months ago and helped my partner film an interview which now seems incredible to listen to. Everyone in the crypto industry had an image of Mario from the last cycle, and it was interesting to see him pivot to what is now called "New Media" and the success he was able to achieve mainly because of retweets from Elon Musk.

During the interview you can watch below, he talks about the high level of attention he receives and the responsibility that comes with it. He admits to taking a side in US politics by supporting Donald Trump because he is a "free speech" advocate, but other than that, he says that his journalism is objective regarding Ukraine/Gaza or any other hot topic around the world. He also speaks highly about posting factual information and not misinformation.

Now on the current subject, I feel he is not only taking a side but also spreading significant misinformation about the situation in Romania, and I want to help you understand by clarifying some of these "facts."

He refers to Calin Georgescu as "the rightful president of Romania."

Let me explain what happened here. Romania had a presidential election at the end of 2024. This type of election in Romania is split into two rounds unless one of the candidates gets more than 50% of the votes. In that case, the candidate wins from the first round and gets to be installed as president.

Calin Georgescu won the first round with 22.94% of the votes, which equals 2,120,401 votes out of 9,242,186. The total number of eligible voters on the lists was 18,021,800. By simple math, he obtained the vote of 11.77% of Romanians allowed to vote.

Although we can objectively admit he was a favorite for the second round based on these numbers, the election was annulled. The Constitutional Court of Romania first validated the first round and then two days later decided to cancel the election after voting had already started in some areas outside the country where voting takes three days to help Romanian citizens living abroad cast their votes. Romania's president at that time declassified the documents based on which the CCR canceled the elections, and most of the data given to the public was vague. It mentioned interference from another state, social media manipulation, or the cost of the campaign being different than previously declared. Georgescu declared 0$ (ZERO) campaign budget.

Now again, even if that would be enough to cancel the election, we all agree that the way the situation unfolded is terrible. It showed the lack of interest from Romanian authorities regarding the elections or, worse, parts of the system that accepted all of this before and during the vote.

The root of all problems

Much like all over the world, Romania is a country with corrupt politicians. Most of the time in the 35 years of democracy, the same parties ruled the country with one main goal: FILL THE POCKETS WHILE YOU CAN.

I'm pretty sure you know what that feels like and thus understand that most of the population is fed up and really wants change. It all erupted in the past 2-3 years with inflation skyrocketing after the pandemic and the cost of living becoming unbearable for some parts of the population.

Now here comes Calin Georgescu. A self-portrayed savior of the people and a fighter against the current establishment, he campaigned mainly on social media. Most of his ideology is nationalist, populist, and Christian Orthodox. Most of us had no idea who he was until the very last day before the first round, especially in big cities, and the fact that he won struck the country like a truck.

In fact, some of his voters declared that they had no idea who he was, but social media, especially TikTok, portrayed him as the savior, and the other options were people they couldn't vote for anymore. One week before the election, most polls gave Georgescu less than 5% and, in the best cases, 8% of the votes. So you can now understand the surprise we had after the counting was done.

After that night, Romanians started to analyze the winner of the first round, and what they found was sometimes scary and other times funny—ranging from "There are microchips in Pepsi that enter your body like a laptop" to "The moon landing was fake", "5G technology is extremely dangerous" or "Covid is not real, you can't see it." You can find most of his statements on this website with sources: https://t.co/Djk58nOjyN.

Setting aside some of these statements, which are mostly harmless, he said things like "Romania should look towards Russian wisdom." He even said he would be ready to leave NATO if it felt necessary and criticized the EU and the way it treats Romania.

While we can agree on some small details in these claims, you have to understand the raw feeling of Romanians when it comes to Russia after more than 40 years of communism. It's the same in most of the Eastern Bloc, and it is being passed from one generation to another. And it is mostly hate.
Romania is not the most developed country in Europe, but it grew a lot after being accepted into NATO and the EU, and you can check the economic data that sustains this. That being said, you can probably understand why some of those statements were labeled as dangerous by parts of the population that doesn't want to accept even a small chance of leaving the EU/NATO and turning toward "Russian wisdom."

Back to our current government

One thing that actually unites most Romanians these days is their lack of trust in the current political scene. There is a feeling of exhaustion among us, and we just want honest people ruling the country. Probably just a dream, as my personal take is it will never happen and most of this drama is just "circus". It's always the same situation, just different pockets. Our current prime minister, @CiolacuMarcel , was recently investigated by journalists for different private flights paid for by a company that scammed many Romanians in the real estate industry. Of course, some of those involved in the scam are also politicians. So you probably now understand why we also want change. The situation in Romania is wild these days. We do want change; some think Georgescu is that change, some think he is exactly what we don't need.

I don't want to make any judgments in this article. I'm trying to show you what I think "New Media" and "Citizen journalism" should be, at least in my view. What I thought Mario also stands for after that interview.

In the course of the last few weeks, Mario has posted every step of Georgescu alongside a network of other popular accounts, some of them known for edgy takes or straightforward propaganda, like Jackson Hinkle or Alex Jones. He even came to Romania to interview Calin and George Simion and said he was afraid.
Afraid of what?
What did he think he did wrong to be afraid of?
Nothing.
Just the usual recipe of fear to create drama for views. Many Romanians are asking him in replies to actually dig deeper into the matter and to listen to everyone, but he clearly took a side and goes forward. Why? We don't know for sure; there are some people claiming he was paid to campaign for Georgescu, but there is no actual proof of that being the case.
Maybe it's because he wants to continue with the whole "Anti-Soros" agenda widely spread even by Elon Musk these days. We don't know, and I don't want to point out a reason without proof or facts.

In fact, that's exactly why I wrote this piece. I'm tired of Old Media, and now the concept of "New Media" is failing harder than I would've ever imagined. Misinformation spreads the fastest on the internet, and most people don't take the time to double or triple check.

It is exactly the same practice of biased mainstream media, but for the other side.
It's no longer
"it must be true, I saw it on CNN"
but
"it must be true, I saw *insert popular account* posted it."

We are witnessing a difficult situation, not only in Romania, and I think journalism should evolve into what it should've always been. But this is not the way. We need to present facts and acknowledge the responsibility, especially as our accounts grow bigger.

I encourage every one of you to join the conversation and fill the gaps that I might've missed. Bring facts, bring arguments, do not bring insults.

I hope I was clear enough and that this helps some of you understand the situation better. I would love to see you help this post get the attention it needs.

Thank you,
andreibratucu

[Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

$BTC.D - The 2W candle has closed below a key resistance range while printing the largest Gravestone Doji in history.

Meanwhile, the 2021 pattern seems to be playing out again. I broke it all down in the thread below.

Check it out! ✅

[Ionut Patru @Patru3Ionut]

@ToniGhinea 🤡🤡🤡🤡

[Ionut Patru @Patru3Ionut]

@daily_romania

[Ionut Patru @Patru3Ionut]

@ToniGhinea 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[Ionut Patru @Patru3Ionut]

@Kotton_Gamer Happy birthday 🥳🥳🥳

[naiive @naiivememe]

Bitcoin bull this month

[andreibratucu🦇🔊 @andreibratucu]

https://t.co/y2eTpv7jaR

[andreibratucu🦇🔊 @andreibratucu]

Panica pe timeline in legatura cu MT GOX.

Multa informatie, putine explicatii.

Clip nou in care vorbesc despre tot ce trebuie sa stii de distributia fondurilor si daca ar trebui sa ne panicheze.

Daca iti place continutul apreciez orice retweet.

[Stockmoney Lizards @StockmoneyL]

#Bitcoin and #Altcoins have been pumping these past months.

The higher we rise, the more people get afraid they might miss the exit.

Nobody can predict when the bear market starts, but we will analyze some metrics that might help you identify the turning point.

A 🧵

[BLMihnea @blmihnea]

*tranzitia, sorry :))

[BLMihnea @blmihnea]

Viziunea mea pentru urmatoarea perioada si planul de investitii.

Ma bazez pe istoric si pe ce vad on-chain plus alti “indicatori” sociali.

In primul rand consider ca inca suntem intr-un punct bun dpdv investitii. Aici tine de fiecare ce grad de risc dispune si ce sume invarte.

Cand vine vorba de monedele mari, x2/x3 inca e realizabil.

Aici ma refer la Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, BNB.

Dar nu cred ca mai intereseaza pe multi treaba asta acum asa ca ma orientez catre ce e mai mic.

Spre exemplu, monede de tip L2s.

ARB, AVAX, OP

Noi blockchains

SUI, SEI, APTOS

Inca nu este tarziu de investit (in opinia mea)

Multa lume are traume, iar frica e inca in creierul multora si e de inteles, am trecut si eu prin asta.

Marea problema este ca multi cauta bottom absolut, top absolut, cauta sa faca maxim din orice. Total eronat.

Nu trebuie sa cumperi bottom ca sa faci bani, faci si mai de sus, nu la fel de multi dar tot faci. Cautarea asta constanta “for the next best thing” pe langa ca e obositoare si stresanta lasa pe masa multe oportunitati mult mai simple.

ORIENTATI-VA CATRE MONEDE CARE AU PERFORMAT SI ADAUGI LA POZITIE

Dau un exemplu concludent.

Am dat LINK aici pe Twitter cand era in consolidare, am luat ceva (nu de toti banii), cand a iesit din consolidare am mai luat, de cand sta in range-ul asta de 20$ am mai luat si mai mult.

Care e logica?

In primul rand dorm linistit. Nu ma astept ca maine LINK sa cada 50%. E putin probabil.

Mi-a demonstrat cand piata era mai putin potenta ca poate livra. Daca poate in conditii grele, de ce sa o faca si in conditii mult mai bune?!

Atat de simplu.

Altcoin season e departe, BTC o sa aiba propriul bull run mult timp dar inevitabil totul o sa se mute in alts si INEVITABIL totul o sa creasca. Intrebarea este care creste cel mai mult?

Indicatorii sociali. Ma uit la grupul pe Telegram, suntem 15.000 acolo.

In bull market eram 17000. Activitatea abia incepe sa-si revina. INTERESUL INCA NU EXISTA.

Interesul inca nu a venit, engagementul abia incepe sa-si mai revina dar tot e foarte jos. Lumea a uitat de crypto, lumea nu mai vrea sa auda de crypto. Au fost 2 ani lungi in care am fost o mana de oameni.

Dar baietii destepti stiu asta. Vad si ei lucrurile astea. Ei stiu ca pentru a decarta tot ce au luat jos e nevoie de exit liquidity. Nu trebuie sa fim noi aia.

Exit liquidity vine in momentul in care o sa avem cresteri de 20% pe zi in BTC si cand alts o sa faca 4-5x intr-o saptamana cum a facut EGLD in 2021.

Dupa ce vin cresterile astea - 3-6 luni de speculat, jucat, calarit narative si dupa aceea, iesit usor usor.

Orientati-va catre monede noi, fara istoric pe chart, fara oameni blocati la preturi mai mari, fara istoric.

Dedicati-va mai mult pentru ca e sansa noastra sa facem life changing money.

Ajuta-ma cu un like si un retweet si las grupul de TG in urmatorul comentariu daca vrei si tu sa mai discutam pe acolo.

[BLMihnea @blmihnea]

Cadou de Craciun incepand cu noul an!

Timp de 7 saptamani voi posta cate 3 monede saptamanal in care investesc.

Aloc 5000 USDT pentru "experimentul" asta.

+ 2500 USDT extra maxim in cazul in care mai scad.

Voi investi in aproximativ 20-25 de proiecte pe care vreau sa le tin pentru bull market.

De ce doar 5000 USDT? Pentru ca sunt proiecte mai high risk care se pot duce la ZERO, asa ca nu va aruncati cu toti banii in ele.

Scopul principal al acestui portofel este sa genereze 10x in urmatorul bull market.

Nota: Nu ma intereseaza daca pierd banii, investitiile mele principale sunt in blue chips care vor performa si imi vor recupera o posibila pierdere.

Planul este foarte simplu: investit initial 200-250 USDT intr-o moneda, in cazul in care scade 50% cumpar acelasi nr de monede (adica aprox 100-125$) pentru reducerea mediei - O SINGURA DATA, nu fac DCA de mai multe ori. Daca scade si mai mult sa fie sanatoasa.

Dupa calculele mele, daca din 20-25 de proiecte, performeaza bine macar 3-4, o sa fie bine.

Primele 3 monede vor fi postate LUNI 1 Ian.

Hai cu un like si un retweet.

[BLMihnea @blmihnea]

✨Atentie postare foarte lunga.

Gata cu leneveala si cu plictiseala.

Suntem intr-un moment de cotitutura si nu exista decat doua scenarii plauzibile. In ambele noi avem doar de castigat si este momentul sa nu ne mai culcam cu ureche. Inteleg ca e vara, inteleg ca e booring piata, dar gata.

Daca pana acum ai stat si doar ai observat dar nu ai interactionat deloc cu spatiul, acum este momentul sa o faci. Aceasta postare nu e doar pentru voi, dar este si pentru mine, pentru ca nici eu nu am fost la capacitate maxima, simt aceleasi lucruri ca si voi.

Care sunt cele doua scenarii plauzibile?

1 - Putem sa avem o inchidere pe Weekly peste valoarea de 32k si sa avem primul HH dupa aproape 600 de zile. In momentul in care are o retragere si sa indreapta la HL, vom avea niste preturi incredibile pentru ALTs.
2 - A doua varianta este ca se poate intoarce de aici fara sa genereze HH care la randul ei are doua scenarii: un HL ad-hoc neconfirmat sau un LL (mai putin probabil, dar deloc de ignorat), in ambele situatii vom avea preturi incredibile pentru ALTs si nu numai.

Sa presupunem ca poate am pierdut bottom-ul la BTC, si cum am repetat de o gramada de ori, sa cauti bottom-ul sau top-ul este o munca in zadar pentru ca nu o sa reusesti, cand bottom-ul o sa vina nici macar nu o sa stii, dar asta nu inseamna ca oportunitatile ne-au scapat, din contra, in viziunea mea cu o confirmare buna, oportunitatile sunt si mai atractive si ofera o siguranta mai mare.

Ce putem sa facem noi diferit?

1 - Sa ne interesam mai mult de airdrops! Airdropurile sunt o modalitate simpla, aproape cost free, care ne aduce doua mari beneficii. Primul este ca invatam sa navigam tainele DeFi si chain-ul respectiv. Ne responsabilizeaza in materie de organizare a tuturor airdrop-urilor pe care le urmarim. Al doilea, este ca putem sa "castigam" niste monede fara sa investim nimic pe care le putem tine pana cand avem un nou bull market cand acestea vor valora mai mult.
2 - Al doilea lucru este sa ne educam mai mult pe partea de tranzactionare la nivel super basic. Adica, rezistente/suport si niste market structure. Pe timeframe mare adica DAILY, putem foarte usor sa identificam un potential reversal sau o potentiala zona de interes unde activul poate sa se opreasca sau unde merita sa cumparam. Ne-a fost demonstrata asta in nenumarate randuri.
3 - Al treilea lucru este sa incepem sa acumulam si sa ne interesam de monede are launchpad-urilor care au facut treaba pana acum. Tineti cont ca treaba, nu se raporteaza in X-uri generate de proiectele care s-au lansat ci in treaba depusa de launchpad. Imi vin in cap cateva precum Enjinestarter, DaoMaker, Bullperks, Seedify. Daca noi acumulam monede incepand de acum o sa avem iar 2 beneficii mari: Primul este ca monedele lor se vor aprecia si vom avea profit in primul rand pe investitia initiala si al doilea este ca putem sa cumparam la preturi avantajoase care ne ofera posibilitatea sa avem un tier mai mare care in bull sa ne dea alocari mai mari si mai sigure.
4 - Trebuie sa ne interesam mai mult de ce se misca pe partea de DeFi. Vreti nu vreti, acolo se da ora exacta si in viziunea mea, dupa Layer 1/2, DeFi e probabil cea mai tare inventie din crypto de pana acum si cu siguranta nu o sa moara. Puteti sa intrati pe Defillama si sa va uitati ce chainuri sau protocoale au un raport bun de TVL/MCAP bun si sa va interesati mai mult de ele. Interactionati cu ele si jucati-va cu ele (sume mici) daca nu au token e si mai bine, pentru ca ne putem astepta si la un airdrop din partea lor.
5 - Intrati pe Crunchbase si uitati-va ce fac VC-urile mari. Banii trebuie urmariti, vin reglementari mari si e posibil sa vedem niste investitii masive din partea institutiilor daca legile le faciliteaza intrarea. Acolo pe site, puteti sa va uitati foarte clar in ce proiecte a bagat fiecare VC in parte, luati-le pe toate la rand si vedeti ce va atrage atentia. Hint: cautati "a16z crypto" in casuta de search.
6 - Trebuie sa fim mai la curent cu posibile narative noi sau vechi care pot aparea sau renaste. RWA (real word assets), AI (a fost prea scurt hype-ul), Gaming (aici cred ca s-a cam curatat piata si a ramas doar calitate), mare atentie la tokenomics si nu va aruncati in ORICE PORCARIE decat daca e de scop pur speculativ.
7 - Trebuie facut planul inca de pe acum. Plan de achizitie care sa includa bugetul pe care il avem, clar specificat monedele in care vrem sa bagam si cat, pragurile daca e cazul, daca nu investitie recurenta. Pe langa planul de achizitie trebuie sa existe evident si un plan de exit. Poate fi facut sub 3 scenarii: optimist, realist, pesimist si pentru fiecare scenariu sa existe praguri de confirmare si invalidare.

O sa fie bine si o sa iasa iar soarele, iar noi trebuie sa fim pregatiti.

Daca ti-a placut si te-a ajutat, un like si un retweet sa ajutam algoritmul.

Mult succes