Pat

🧠 AI Engineer 🏈 Fantasy, Contests & Sports Betting 👨‍💻 Building My AI Prediction Model Suite 🏀⛳️⚾️🤖 👉 Follow for Free Picks, Insights & Education 📚🍻

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ PGA Championship

1️⃣ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2️⃣ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3️⃣ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4️⃣ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5️⃣ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7️⃣ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8️⃣ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
🔟 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)

Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.

3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

Source: Minnesota officially has been selected to host the 2028 NFL Draft.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

@GeorgeVanRijk Didn’t notice that, but yeah he must not have made the cut for the top 30

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ PGA Championship

Since there is only 1 PGA event in the alst 10 years at Aronimink (2018), I bumped up the SG filters for PGA Champiosnhip cumualtive history as well as Majors history instead.

Haven't fully decided on my 3rd, but I do like taking both Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay here.

Probably not worth burning Scottie. I might take a shot on Mi Woo Lee, Nicolai Hojgaard or say fuck it and just take Bryson 🤮

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ PGA Championship

1️⃣ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2️⃣ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3️⃣ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4️⃣ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5️⃣ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7️⃣ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8️⃣ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
🔟 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)

Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.

3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ PGA Championship

My Top 10 vs Actual
🟢 Rahm: 13% (1) → 14% (1)
🔴 McIlroy: 10% (2) → 4% (7)
🟢 Scheffler: 10% (3) → 10% (4)
🟢 Young: 9% (4) → 12% (2)
🟢 DeChambeau: 7% (5) → 11% (3)
🟡 Koepka: 6% (6) → 2% (12)
🟢 Fowler: 4% (7) → 3% (10)
🟢 Schauffele: 4% (8) → 3% (11)
🟡 Aberg: 4% (9) → 8% (5)
🟢 Fitzpatrick: 4% (10) → 4% (8)

Also in Actual Top 10
🟡 Hatton: <2% (20+) → 4% (6)
🟢 Fleetwood: 2% (14) → 4% (9)

Hit Rates
🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
🟩 Top 10: 8/10 (80%)
🟩 Top 20: 17/20 (85%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.82 (rank accuracy)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ PGA Championship

1️⃣ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2️⃣ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3️⃣ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4️⃣ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5️⃣ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7️⃣ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8️⃣ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
🔟 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)

Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.

3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

Rolling with 2 Xander &amp; 1 Hovland

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Truist Championship

Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on.

I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays.

JT as well, has player well at this course.

Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

@TheRealMcCoy_84 Yeah I’ll be taking a shot on Xander, maybe Young too. A bit scared of the Rory ownership so I think sitting that one out.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Truist Championship

Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on.

I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays.

JT as well, has player well at this course.

Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Truist Championship

1️⃣ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used)
2️⃣ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used)
3️⃣ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used)
4️⃣ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used)
5️⃣ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used)
7️⃣ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used)
8️⃣ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used)
9️⃣ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
🔟 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used)

2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used)
1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used)
1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used)
1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used)
0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Truist Championship

1️⃣ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used)
2️⃣ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used)
3️⃣ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used)
4️⃣ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used)
5️⃣ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used)
7️⃣ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used)
8️⃣ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used)
9️⃣ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
🔟 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used)

2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used)
1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used)
1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used)
1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used)
0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

Cadillac Championship OAD Recap

Pat's Pick 1 — Scottie Scheffler ($2.16M - 2nd)
Pat's Pick 2 — Russell Henley ($48K - 52nd)
Pat's Pick 3 — Collin Morikawa ($42K - 63rd)

Shoulda just rode the top 2 model picks...

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Cadillac Championship

Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016.

Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie.

Pat's Picks (3 entries)
🎯 Scottie Scheffler
🎯 Collin Morikawa
🎯 Russell Henley

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

@TheRealMcCoy_84 Both feel like the good shots to take to me. Definitely have to lay off Gotterup at that ownership.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Cadillac Championship

1️⃣ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used)
2️⃣ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
3️⃣ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used)
4️⃣ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
5️⃣ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used)
6️⃣ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used)
8️⃣ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
🔟 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)

3.3% Justin Rose (15% used)
3.2% Adam Scott
3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used)
3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
2.2% Harris English (7% used)
1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used)
1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.4% Akshay Bhatia

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Cadillac Championship

Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016.

Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie.

Pat's Picks (3 entries)
🎯 Scottie Scheffler
🎯 Collin Morikawa
🎯 Russell Henley

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Cadillac Championship

1️⃣ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used)
2️⃣ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
3️⃣ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used)
4️⃣ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
5️⃣ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used)
6️⃣ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used)
8️⃣ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
🔟 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)

3.3% Justin Rose (15% used)
3.2% Adam Scott
3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used)
3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
2.2% Harris English (7% used)
1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used)
1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.4% Akshay Bhatia

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ RBC Heritage

My Top 10 vs Actual
🟢 Fitzpatrick: 10% (1) → 10% (3)
🟢 Henley: 10% (2) → 11% (1)
🟢 Schauffele: 10% (3) → 7% (5)
🟢 Scheffler: 8% (4) → 10% (4)
🟡 Young: 8% (5) → 3% (9)
🟢 Spieth: 7% (6) → 7% (6)
🟡 Cantlay: 7% (7) → 11% (2)
🟢 Fleetwood: 4% (8) → 4% (7)
🟢 Morikawa: 3% (9) → 2% (18)
🟢 Aberg: 3% (10) → 3% (8)

Also in Actual Top 10
🟢 Bridgeman: 1% (19) → 3% (10)

Hit Rates
🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
🟩 Top 10: 9/10 (90%)
🟩 Top 20: 19/20 (95%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.72 (rank accuracy)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ RBC Heritage

1️⃣ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2️⃣ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3️⃣ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4️⃣ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5️⃣ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6️⃣ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7️⃣ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8️⃣ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9️⃣ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
🔟 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)

3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

@TheRealMcCoy_84 I am really hoping that continually saving him gets me a high leverage win later on and I only have 2/3 left after using 1 at the Masters.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ RBC Heritage

Important to note that Collin is still battling his back injury. But he seemed to get through the mental block from round 1 at the Masters finishing with 3 great rounds.

I will be taking a shot on him as I need to pick up ground on the field.

Similar profile to Rory with injury concerns last week, he will be lower owned and it's a great opportunity to use a top player in a high leverage spot.

With a $20 Million dollar purse I want to target lower owned studs in this one.

Pat's Picks (3 entries)
🎯 Collin Morikawa
🎯 Ludvig Aberg
🎯 Tommy Fleetwood

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ RBC Heritage

1️⃣ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2️⃣ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3️⃣ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4️⃣ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5️⃣ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6️⃣ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7️⃣ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8️⃣ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9️⃣ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
🔟 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)

3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

@TheRealMcCoy_84 Certainly can’t argue with taking Scottie. Great course for him. I do think his ownership could be even higher than projected though with what just happened at the most publicly viewed tournament of the year.

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ RBC Heritage

1️⃣ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2️⃣ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3️⃣ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4️⃣ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5️⃣ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6️⃣ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7️⃣ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8️⃣ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9️⃣ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
🔟 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)

3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

Masters Tournament OAD Recap

Pat's Pick 1 — Scottie Scheffler ($2.43M - 2nd)
Pat's Pick 2 — Xander Schauffele ($630K - T10)
Pat's Pick 3 — Matt Fitzpatrick ($315K - 20th)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ The Masters (4/9/26)

2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update.

🧊 Clutch Factor (NEW) — How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds.
🦅 Par 5 Scoring (NEW) — Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history.

The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo.

Pat's Picks
🎯 Xander Schauffele
🎯 Matt Fitzpatrick
🎯 Scottie Scheffler

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ Masters Tournament

My Top 20 vs Actual
🟢 Rahm: 19% (1) → 22% (1)
🟢 DeChambeau: 11% (2) → 13% (3)
🟡 Schauffele: 9% (3) → 14% (2)
🟢 Scheffler: 9% (4) → 7% (6)
🟢 Young: 7% (5) → 6% (7)
🟢 Fitzpatrick: 6% (6) → 3% (8)
🟢 Fleetwood: 6% (7) → 3% (9)
🟡 Aberg: 6% (8) → 9% (5)
🟢 McIlroy: 5% (9) → 3% (10)
🔴 Reed: 4% (10) → 9% (4)

Hit Rates
🟨 Top 5: 3/5 (60%)
🟩 Top 10: 10/10 (100%)
🟩 Top 20: 17/20 (85%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.89 (rank accuracy)

[Pat @PatsPicksAI]

PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Masters Tournament

1️⃣ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2️⃣ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3️⃣ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4️⃣ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5️⃣ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6️⃣ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8️⃣ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9️⃣ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
🔟 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)

Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.

I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.

I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.

2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)