Hods

Faith and family guy. Behavioral trader.
No advice just my general thoughts.

[YellowStripes💥 @YellowStripeASX]

$VMM #Brazil #REE #RareEarths NEWS💥

⏩️EUROPEAN UNION COMMISSIONER JOZEF SÍKELA VISITS $VMM COLOSSUS #RAREEARTHS PROJECT⏪️

⏩️Colossus selected for official site visit during EU mission to Brazil as discussions progress on strategic #rareearth supply chains⏪️

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Starlink V3 satellites have >10X bandwidth of V2 and there’ll be >10X launched, which means >100X more bandwidth.

Also, altitude will be 350km vs 550km, so min latency can be cut in half.

Light travels 300km/ms in space, so physics round trip min latency drops to <5ms.

[Steve Grasso @grassosteve]

🤔

[Geoff Wilson @GeoffWilsonWAM]

Can you believe these people?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

That’s a lot of illegal immigrants

[NOLLY @omoelerinjare1]

For nearly seven years, Melina Salazar was the only waitress at a Texas diner willing to serve grumpy 89-year-old WWII veteran Walter "Buck" Swords.

He complained constantly, never smiled or tipped, and drove others away—but Melina always greeted him with patience and kindness.

When Walter suddenly stopped coming in, Melina wondered what happened. Then she received a call from his lawyer: he had passed away and left her $50,000 cash plus his 2000 Buick in his will.

The note revealed her consistent warmth had meant the world to him.

A quiet reminder that kindness, even to the difficult, can change lives.

[Discovery Alert @DiscoveryAlert]

New high-grade rutile discovery in Malawi sees @Fortuna_ASX confirm 2.32% peak grades, positioning $FUN for major exploration upside.

https://t.co/k7G3NK4WXa

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

There were two factors driving this market this year:
1. Easy money due to the resumption of rate cuts
2. Continued optimism on the AI trade which was also helped by the easy money to fund debt related capex build outs

Recently these twin pillars of the market have been called into question:
1. A December 10th rate cut seems to be a toss up for the Fed with four or more dissents likely even if there is a cut
2. OpenAI talking about a government backstop forced investors to question whether a company that will generate run rate revenues of $20B exiting this year can fund $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments
3. As a result of the above, high valuations for the market in general and especially some of the more speculative sectors reliant on easy money are now being called into question

As a result, this past week while the S&P was up 0.1%, the Magnificent 7 were down 1.1% while my AI index was down 3.2% due to the concerns above. The Russell 2000 in which over one-third of the names are unprofitable and therefore more reliant on easy money was down 1.8%.

This increases the importance of $NVDA earnings on Wednesday. I expect the results and outlook to be solid given hyperscaler capex spending forecasts went from up ~60% to up ~70% for CY25 following Q3 earnings. Industry expectations also went up for CY26 from 20-25% to ~30%+.

In addition at Nvidia’s GTC on 10/28, the CEO said they have “visibility” to $500B in data center revenues through the end of 2026. Even with roughly 30% of that having already been shipped and including networking revenues, that still leaves ~$300B left in revenues for the next 5 quarters. For comparison, the estimate over the past 5 quarters for datacenters including the to be released October qtr is below $150B.

But the question will be how the market reacts to solid Nvdia earnings.

My belief is that Nvidia results should be solid enough to arrest the fall in non-speculative AI related names assuming credit related metrics show some stability as well.

The token generation being seen since the recent launches of image editing apps like Nano Banana (August) and video generation apps like Sora 2 (September) have been very strong. The tokens required especially for video are orders of magnitude higher than for a simple text query.

As an example, in May of 2025, Google tokens per month across its products and APIs reached 480 trillion, a 50x increase from the previous year. This doubled by July to 980 trillion and reached 1.3 quadrillion monthly tokens by October.

The question as I have said before is whether private companies like OpenAI can monetize the tokens being generated through paid subscriptions when you have 5B consumers that have been trained by Google over decades that you can get answers for free.

Names like $GOOGL and $AMZN that: 1) can fund their capex ambitions with cash flow vs debt, and 2) are not reliant as much on OpenAI for their forecasts, are my favorites.

Anthropic, for example, which Amazon invested in originally in 2023 and owns ~15-19%, is a major driver of AWS. Anthropic is expected to turn profitable in 2028 while the annualized revenue run rate is forecasted to roughly double to $20B by 2026. Over three-quarters of their revenue is from the corporate market where they produce coding assistants like Cursor. Their infrastructure commitments in total are also less than $100B with $50B announced recently on 11/12. In contrast, OpenAI is expected to burn cash through 2029 and generates most of their revenue from the consumer market with their flagship product ChatGPT which launched the AI revolution. Their infrastructure commitments are $1.4 trillion.

Google I believe will be the ultimate winner in consumer AI given they have the most free data of anyone in the world to train on (especially YouTube for Video) and prodigious free cash flow to fund their efforts. In addition, they invested in Anthropic in late 2022 and owns ~14% of the company with workloads also driving Google Cloud.

Nvidia earnings results have been probably the biggest focal point for the market ever since the release of ChatGPT three years ago on November 30th of 2022. This one on Wednesday is probably the most important yet.

[Discovery Alert @DiscoveryAlert]

Oonagalabi’s 91m near-surface copper-zinc mineralisation with high-grade zones propels exploration as @Litchfield_LMS drills, positioning $LMS for discoveries.

https://t.co/wdVHSh7pN4

[Hods @PaulHods]

Happy Friday!

[🇨🇴Eliécer Alberto Velasco🕊️ @eliecervelasco]

The world’s first reasoning video model, and the first to generate studio-grade HDR. Now with an all-new Draft Mode for rapid iteration in creative workflows, and state of the art physics and consistency.

[Phoenix Global Investments @scuff_peg]

Fortuna Metals (ASX: $FUN) has secured A$3.5Million to accelerate drilling across the Malawi Rutile Project.

Key Highlights
• A$3.5M raised via placement of ~31.8M shares at $0.11
• Funding maintains strong drilling momentum at Mkanda & Kampini Projects
• Systematic hand-auger drilling on 800m & 400m grids across priority zones
• First soil assays due late November, first hand-auger assays mid-December
• Consistent assay flow expected throughout Q1 2026
• Board & management to participate in the placement for $100,000

@Fortuna_ASX
Link to the Announcement: https://t.co/QwLWraueuA

[Phoenix Global Investments @scuff_peg]

Fortuna Metals (ASX: $FUN) continues to advance drilling across the Mkanda & Kampini Rutile Projects.

Key Highlights
· 208 hand-auger drill holes completed with an average depth of 8.5m
· Priority drilling at Mkanda due to the close proximity to rail ~11km
· Soil assays expected late Nov 2025
· First hand-auger assay results due mid-Dec 2025
· XRD & QEMSCAN mineralogy analysis underway, results expected late Q4 2025
· Projects are located ~20km south of Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX: SVM) the world-class Kasiya rutile and graphite deposit.

@Fortuna_ASX
Link to the Announcement: https://t.co/Gvc2veGXzO

[Discovery Alert @DiscoveryAlert]

NSW projects yield high manganese as @great_dirt targets exhalative deposits, positioning $GR8 in the growing critical minerals market.

https://t.co/s1mGXBEpw7

[NVIDIA @nvidia]

From the transistor to the internet, every leap forward has shaped America’s destiny.

Now, a new industrial revolution begins — powered by AI and NVIDIA accelerated computing.

This is America’s next Apollo moment.

This is the age of AI.

Watch the story unfold → https://t.co/GL0x997EEl

[Equities Club @EquitiesClub]

From panic to profit. Gold rebounded above US$4,000, copper hit new highs, and the small-cap panic in Malawi was over by midweek.

Here’s what it all means for ASX investors 👇
https://t.co/g7Rzero6Or

[Equities Club @EquitiesClub]

Fortuna Metals ramps up rutile drilling in Malawi’s rich mineralised belt, exploring near Sovereign Metals’ world-class deposit

Read more: https://t.co/bmI277LK6k

[TheGladiator @TheGladiatorHC]

Have a look at how well $FUN has held up over the the past week while most Micro caps have seen corrections.

Great management, project and register.

[Hods @PaulHods]

@SuppressedNws1 Looks pretty healthy to me.

[Hods @PaulHods]

@SarahAllisonFl SMACK!