Let's Predict

Predictions backed by research. Every thesis shared. Every outcome tracked.

owned by @pebbysandhu

[Let's Predict @PebbyVsOdds]

📌 What to expect from this account

• Share my predictions
• Explain my research
• Post every trade
• Track profits and losses
• Share results, win or lose

Not a financial advice, ofcourse
( This is calculated GAMBLING )

[Let's Predict @PebbyVsOdds]

Prediction 3 - $MELI

I just placed a bet on MercadoLibre selling more than 3.4 billion items in 2026.

I paid just 31¢ for a contract that pays $1 if I'm right.

But the interesting part isn't the potential profit.

It's how I arrived at this decision.

Let me explain.

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📊 IT STARTED WITH A SIMPLE QUESTION

How many items can MercadoLibre realistically sell this year?

In 2025, the company sold 2.429 billion items.

Now look at what happened in 2026.

Q1: 722 million
Q2: 795 million

That's 1.517 billion items in just six months.
And an impressive 45.6% growth over the previous year.

At first, I thought exceeding 3.4 billion would be relatively easy.

But I wanted to know exactly what needed to happen.

So I worked backwards.

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🔍 THE NUMBER THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING

To finish above 3.4 billion, MercadoLibre needs to sell another 1.883 billion items in the second half.

Last year, it sold 1.387 billion during the same period.

Do the math.

It needs just 35.8% growth in H2.

Remember, H1 growth was 45.6%.

In other words, growth could slow by almost 10 percentage points, and my bet could still win.

That caught my attention.

But there was something bothering me.

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⚠️ WHAT IF GROWTH SLOWS MUCH FASTER?

MercadoLibre introduced aggressive shipping incentives in Brazil during 2025.

Those incentives helped accelerate purchasing.

But they also created something investors often overlook.

A difficult year-over-year comparison.

Strong growth last year makes repeating that growth harder this year.

I couldn't simply assume the company would maintain its current momentum.

So I went back through historical quarterly data.

And instead of predicting an arbitrary growth rate, I applied different years' seasonal patterns to 2026.

Here's what happened.

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📈 THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

🔴 Scenario 1: 2024 seasonality

Applying 2024's quarterly growth pattern gives approximately 3.369 billion items.

My bet loses.

🟡 Scenario 2: 2023 seasonality

Using 2023's pattern produces approximately 3.401 billion items.

My bet barely wins.

🟢 Scenario 3: 2025 seasonality

If last year's seasonal momentum repeats, the total reaches approximately 3.522 billion items.

My bet wins comfortably.

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🧠 NOW COMES THE INTERESTING PART

Two of those three historical scenarios exceed my target.

Does that mean I have a 67% probability of winning?

Absolutely not.

Three historical observations aren't enough to calculate a reliable probability, especially when business conditions keep changing.

I need to account for the possibility that growth slows more sharply than those scenarios suggest.

After considering that risk, my working probability is approximately 50%.

It's a judgment-based estimate, not a statistically proven one.

Now compare that with what I paid.

[Let's Predict @PebbyVsOdds]

Prediction 2 | $AXP

I'm betting YES on above 156M on American Express cards-in-force for Q3 2026.

Here's my reasoning.

American Express added:

2024 Q3: +1.2M cards
2025 Q3: +1.8M cards

That's an average of 1.5M additional cards.
And Q2 2026 ended at 155.1M.

Following historical growth, Q3 could reach 156.6M.

But there's one major risk. 👈

American Express transferred its Amazon Business card portfolio to U.S. Bank in August, potentially reducing its total cards in force.

On the positive side, Delta reported over 10% growth in Amex co-branded card sign-ups.

📊 My estimate after all calculations: 156.2M
💰 My bet: YES above 156M

Let's see whether historical growth can offset the Amazon transfer.

Risk - Low
Reward - Moderate

[Let's Predict @PebbyVsOdds]

Prediction 1 - $FSLR

I'm betting YES above 4.1 GW on First Solar Module Volume Sold In Q3

Management guidance and historical data suggest module sales between 3.9–4.5 GW.

But here's what caught my attention.

Kalshi is offering 2.33x payout if sales exceed 4.1 GW.

4.1 GW sits almost in the middle of management's guidance.

The company doesn't even need to beat expectations significantly.

It just needs to deliver slightly below the midpoint.

Risk - Moderate
Reward - Moderate