Pedestrian Capital

Value Investor trying to cut out the noise

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

At this point everyone needs to be asking who they trust more, Trump or Iran leadership. Unfortunately, I don’t like my honest answer

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects today's claim that Iran sent a new draft peace proposal to the US, saying "no such proposal exists," due to the suspension of talks with the US, per Fars. Iran also denied agreeing to a 15-year enrichment suspension, denied "zeroing in" on four nuclear issues, and denied Trump's claim of a deal being reachable in "two or three days" and that the Strait of Hormuz "will open up right away."

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

@edzitron AWS and Ubers cost to improve their product went down as they scaled. The next generation of models seems to cost an order of magnitude more to develop. That is why you can’t use this analogy.

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

Just had my first kid. You need to have a kid asap. It’s life changing in the absolute best possible way. Nothing will be the same and everything will be better

[Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor]

BREAKING: No deal reached after Trump situation room meeting.

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

At what point does Wall Street just start disregarding what Trump says regarding Iran? This is a clown show

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

Trump is absolutely going to pump $TKO to the moon isn’t he? Is it really that easy?

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

Feel like the oil gang is capitulating. Time to pump it

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

If you have the discipline to do this you can weather any storm and your life gets better and better every year that ticks by

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

Bucco’s guide to making $400k+:

So, your dumb ass has been lucky enough to stumble into making a 1% salary. Congratulations, you’re at the doorstop of generational wealth (or early retirement). Here’s how to not fuck it up

1. Assume this isn’t permanent: The first thing you need to recognize is most people don’t keep their 1% salaries. There’s a lot of luck, and variable comp, that usually goes into that kind of paycheck. So have some humility and live like it ain’t permanent, because it usually ain’t. Which brings me to point #2

2. Live below your means: Most people who start making fat paychecks start racking up fat credit card bills. But if you follow my first rule you won’t do that. At least for the first 3 years you will live like you aren’t making a lot of money. You will save. A lot. This is a gift to future you

3. Take care of yourself: If you are making this much you are usually working very hard. So take care of yourself. Invest in your brain and your body and your health. It is a marathon, not a sprint, as they say. And one of the reasons people don’t maintain their high paychecks is because they burn out

4. Pay it forward: Fate has smiled on you. You are not only obligated to pay it forward, but it is the right thing to do. One day you may experience something bad, unlucky, and catastrophic. People will remember that you did not neglect others while it was your moment in the sun and they will come to your support. Be kind, especially when you don’t need to

5. Maintain perspective: You are not better than anyone because you make a lot of money. There are many ways to be rich. Be sure that you stay humble, and continue to invest in your friends, families, relationships and health. Or you might one day find yourself with a full bank account and an empty life

Follow these rules and I assure you that the odds of living a prosperous life will tip heavily in your favor

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

@buccocapital Did this exact thing and now 34 with small family and feel our lives get better and better every year

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

If you read this and are not disgusted you should reevaluate your priorities and what will lead to a meaningful life

[Deedy @deedydas]

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.

Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).

Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.

Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.

As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.

2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"

3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.

4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."

I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.

Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".

Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

@zeeg I feel like Google Cloud is doing this is it not?

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

@NeelBParekh @HCapLonghorn Second this. Absolute game changer. Have a three week old and surprised night nurses don’t charge more because of how worth it it is

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

@Pablo01618 Gotta expect these types of moves every now and then from these high growth high valuation stocks

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

This semi cap pump is extremely painful

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

Now $META revealing their plans for their OpenClaw competitor shortly after $GOOG

Just like Perplexity releasing their new finance features / model shortly after Anthropic earlier today. Lots of peer pressure

https://t.co/iHcWDnl289

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

I am ready for this semi pump to be over

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

This $SHOP move is insane to me. So tempted to buy more but it’s already a top 3 position even after this move

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

$SHOP getting killed and I’m not sure why

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

@MetacriticCap This cannot be true. I would assume you need appropriate IAM policies to even access bedrock much less select and use specific models

[Pedestrian Capital @PedestrianCap]

What software companies are embracing AI the most in their product development? $SHOP and $NET seem to be going all in. Who else am I missing?