Kim Heng

Founder, Pennygem Investments. Turning every penny into a precious asset. Passion through imagination. Not financial advice.

[Kim Heng @Pennygem_CEO]

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https://t.co/KI96NZDEYQ

[Scott @scottfelsenthal]

One of the hardest things in investing:

Owning a stock that is doing nothing while everything around you is going up.

If the thesis is strengthening while the price is standing still, boredom can be an opportunity.

[Shin | $OPENARMY 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇰🇷 @mudirshin]

$OPEN I came across this on Reddit, and I thought it was worth sharing.

The model is trying to connect Opendoor’s rapidly rising acquisition contracts with what that could mean for sales later this year.

The basic idea is simple:

Acquisition contracts are building the pipeline now, while actual home sales show up with a lag.

If that conversion holds, the model estimates roughly:

Q3 sales: ~2,850 homes
Q4 sales: ~3,560 homes

That would be a meaningful step up from Q1 and Q2.

What I like about this chart is that it focuses on the timing gap between buying and selling. The current sales numbers may still be reflecting activity from months ago, while the recent ramp in acquisitions could show up much more clearly in Q4.

Not saying this projection is guaranteed, but the setup is definitely worth watching.

[Nexus @GMN_watch]

🚨 $OPEN just posted 610 acquisition contracts for the week.

That’s +330% YoY, even after a 15% pullback from last week.

[ssj2abid @ssj2abid]

$OPEN week 10 acquisitions.

610.

Very nice, happy with this, significantly higher than 500.

Down 15% on last week, but look at what it's being measured against.

→ 610 this week
→ 142 the same week last year
→ 4.3x, up 330%
→ and 18% above the old 517 sixteen week average we calculated.

Note, these contracts do not allow follow through as sales and some may drop off.

However some quick math on this week's number, same basis as always. The actual $377.5K average sale price from Q2, and roughly $110M of quarterly costs.

At 5% contribution margin:
→ 610 × 13 = 7,930 homes a quarter
→ × $377.5K = $2.99B revenue
→ × 5% = $150M contribution
→ − $110M costs = $40M a quarter
→ about $0.16 EPS annualised
→ 30x = $4.94 | 45x = $7.42 | 60x = $9.89

At 6% contribution margin:
→ 610 × 13 = 7,930 homes a quarter
→ × $377.5K = $2.99B revenue
→ × 6% = $180M contribution
→ − $110M costs = $70M a quarter
→ about $0.29 EPS annualised
→ 30x = $8.67 | 45x = $13.01 | 60x = $17.35

One percentage point of contribution margin is the difference between $40M and $70M a quarter, because the cost base barely moves.

A combination of steady contribution margins within the 5-7% range + increased sales volumes is the main thing I want to see past Q3 earnings.

Which brings me to Q4, and the most underrated thing I think Kaz said on the earnings call.

Every year in Opendoor's history as a public company, Q4 contribution margin has come in worse than Q3. Winter is the worst season to sell a house. It's a pretty shit trend.

However, Kaz guided Q4 above Q3 anyway.

→ the roughly 100 legacy Opendoor 1.0 homes clear out in Q3
→ Doma finishes integrating
→ what's left is clean inventory bought under the new underwriting
→ aged homes over 120 days down to 9%, against 33% in Q4'25

Opendoor is saying it can beat a seasonality it has never once beaten, with 7% mortgage rates and one of the worst housing markets in years lmao.

If they hit it, that isn't just a good quarter. It's evidence the machine works regardless of what the macro is doing, which was the entire point of rebuilding it.

Buying is proven. Sales volume is climbing. Q4 settles the margin question. Very excited for the quarters ahead :)

Patience and conviction.

nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

[Nexus @GMN_watch]

🚨 BREAKING: JPMORGAN SAYS $OPEN CAN REACH PROFITABILITY WITHOUT A HOUSING RECOVERY.

JPMorgan reiterates OVERWEIGHT + $8 PT after Q2.

✅Revenue +23% QoQ → $883M
✅ANI loss down to just $30M
✅500+ contracts/week in what JPM calls the “weakest housing market in a generation”
✅Aged inventory: 51% → 9%
✅Further upside from mortgage, faster turns & AI-driven cost leverage

[Nexus @GMN_watch]

🚨 Deutsche Bank increased its $OPEN position by 2,923%!!!

Shares held:

63,804 → 1,928,562

That’s 1.86M shares added in a single quarter, taking the position to more than 30x its previous size.

[Nelson Ellingham @Nbusiness1990]

$OPEN Q3 here’s the scenario nobody should overlook:

Opendoor expects roughly $110M of SBC in Q3.

So hypothetically:

GAAP loss: -$140M → Ex-SBC: -$30M
GAAP loss: -$120M → Ex-SBC: -$10M
GAAP loss: -$110M → Ex-SBC: ~$0
GAAP loss: -$90M → Ex-SBC: +$20M 🚀

Translation:

$OPEN could report another ugly $100M+ GAAP loss while the underlying business is sitting near—or even above breakeven before SBC.

With management targeting Adjusted Net Income profitability by year-end, don’t let the headline GAAP number fool you.

Watch what’s underneath it. 📈

[Scott @scottfelsenthal]

Chairman of $OPEN essentially giving you a floor for where he anticipates the company to be by 2030. Do the math on what that means for the stock price at that time.

And you want to think Opendoor is still solely a traditional iBuyer?

Not me.

[PatMan @PatMan527]

People seem to either absolutely love @Opendoor or absolutely hate it.

[Nelson Ellingham @Nbusiness1990]

$open

Its just math guys.

[Nexus @GMN_watch]

Berkshire Hathaway is literally building a housing platform.

Greg Abel: “We expect to unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform…”

That matters for $OPEN.

The biggest capital in America is betting in housing

[Kim Heng @Pennygem_CEO]

Nice $OPEN article.

[Scott @scottfelsenthal]

I love a good turnaround story.

Most investors have no clue how difficult architecting and turning around a company can be.

And therein lies the opportunity.

$OPEN has the ingredients to be one of the most remarkable turnarounds of our generation. https://t.co/meIqUXMQdv

[Scott @scottfelsenthal]

Posting an article that I just published on $OPEN. I think you all will like it :)

Pumped for the direction Kaz has the company moving in!

[Kim Heng @Pennygem_CEO]

@BillBrooklyn10 Stocks

[David @Davo0820]

The analyst that cover Opendoor are probably the most ill informed covering the company that I’ve ever seen. $OPEN
They completely miss the ramp up of sales for 2027

[Kaz Nejatian @nejatian]

@stockgeekTV @TheLongApe I don't know how to respond to this. Yes. My family and I have been blessed because I've basically worked every single day of my life since I was 12. No. Opendoor doesn't pay me a salary and my entire upside is the same as shareholders.

[Nelson Ellingham @Nbusiness1990]

If Kaz's thesis plays out and Opendoor reaches sustainable profitability by the end of 2026, I think the stock would likely be re-rated well before investors see a full year of earnings. The market typically prices in future earnings rather than waiting for them to fully appear.

Barely profitable, investors still skeptical $6–9

Clear profitability with confidence it continues"Business model works."$10–15

Strong profitability + accelerating growth + AI narrative"Category winner."$15–25+

My base case

Assuming:
- Q4 2026 is clearly profitable,
- guidance for 2027 remains positive,
- housing conditions are at least stable,

I think a fair valuation is probably around $10–15 per share, with upside into the $20+ range if investors become convinced Opendoor has crossed from "speculative turnaround" to "proven profitable platform."

The key difference is that profitability changes the conversation.

Right now, the biggest debate is whether the business can consistently make money at all. Once that question is largely answered, investors begin debating how much it can earn, which often leads to a higher valuation multiple than before.
$OPEN

[Eric Jackson @ericjackson]

Everyone's reading Opendoor down 10% today as a verdict on the quarter.

The stock ran up 9% over the two sessions going into the print. Measured from a week ago it's roughly flat.

What you're watching is the run-up coming out, not the market rendering judgment.

Full breakdown for subscribers, including the three dates that actually settle this one.

By the way, Kaz did something I've almost never seen on an earnings call yesterday.

He put his best number on the table. Then he handed the audience the weapon to attack it, unprompted, before a single analyst asked.

Most people are arguing about a spreadsheet. Almost nobody listened to the call.

New video for subscribers uploading.

[David @Davo0820]

Excellent $OPEN 👇👇👇👇

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Incredible results from $OPEN yesterday.

CEO @nejatian is even better than advertised.

Acceleration underway.