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TODAY'S PROPS AT 1.50+ WITH A REAL RECORD BEHIND THEM 📋

Every player prop on today's card priced 1.50 or bigger, for every player we hold records on, filtered hard:
• Hit the line in at least 8 of their last 10 appearances in all competitions, and 4 of the last 5
• Started their club's most recent game, and named in today's XI
• No cards, no anytime scorer

Nine lines survived 👇

🎯 DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI — 1+ SHOT ON TARGET
Bournemouth v Liverpool, 14:00
@ 1.727 Bet365
• 9/10, 4/5
• Last five: 2, 1, 1, 3, 0
• Ten starts from ten
The 2 came in 28 minutes in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday. The price implies 58%; his record says 90%.
Also 2+ shots @ 1.571 Sky Bet — 8/10 and 4/5. Two views of the same player, not two bets.

🦵 JAMES HILL — 1+ FOUL COMMITTED
Bournemouth v Liverpool, 14:00
@ 1.533 Sky Bet and Paddy Power
• 9/10, 5/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of his last six
Exactly one foul in five straight games, in front of Michael Oliver, who calls 23.2 fouls a game against a league average of 21.8.

🦵 ADAM SMITH — 1+ FOUL COMMITTED
Bournemouth v Liverpool, 14:00
@ 1.50 Bet365
• 9/10, 5/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 2, 1, 1
• Eight starts from ten
He came off after 63 minutes in the Europa League on Thursday, so of these he's the likeliest to be withdrawn early.

🏃 NOAH SADIKI — 1+ FOUL WON
Man City v Sunderland, 14:00
@ 1.533 Bet365
• 9/10, 4/5
• Last five: 2, 0, 2, 1, 3
• Ten starts from ten
The caveat is the fixture: fouls won usually needs the ball, and Sunderland won't have much of it at the Etihad.

🎯 ENZO LE FÉE — 2+ SHOTS
Man City v Sunderland, 14:00
@ 2.20 Sky Bet
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 4, 3, 3, 4, 0
• Ten starts from ten, 80+ minutes in each
The biggest price on the list. Four shots in Europe on Wednesday. Same fixture caveat: this is Sunderland's hardest away day of the season.

🎯 ANTONIO NUSA — 1+ SHOT ON TARGET
Leverkusen v RB Leipzig, 14:30
@ 1.615 Sky Bet
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 1, 3, 0
• On target in each of his last four, including two in the Champions League
The only blank in that five was a 27-minute appearance back in May.

🎯 OLASAGASTI — 1+ SHOT
Villarreal v Levante, 17:30
@ 1.50 Paddy Power
• 9/10, 4/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 2, 2, 0
• Ten starts from ten

🎯 LASSANA COULIBALY — 1+ SHOT
AC Milan v Lecce, 19:45
@ 1.833 Bet365
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 3, 1, 0, 1, 2
• Ten starts from ten, and 90 minutes in every single one
The cleanest minutes record on the page, at the second-biggest price.

🏃 GUIDO RODRÍGUEZ — 2+ FOULS WON
Valencia v Real Sociedad, 20:00
@ 1.91 William Hill
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 3, 1, 3, 2, 2
• Ten starts from ten
Nearly 2.00 on an 8/10 record is the best record-to-price line of the day.
Read it honestly, though: seven of those ten are from last season. He missed three games between 25 August and 15 September, then started the last one.

⚠️ BEFORE YOU ACT
• Prices checked at 13:00 UK. Everyone above started their club's last game and is in today's XI, but the confirmed teamsheets land an hour before each kick-off. If a name isn't in his, the record means nothing.
• These are records, not predictions. An 8/10 record still misses two times in ten.

Every player's per-90 numbers,
https://t.co/0tyDyO3YDD

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

ATLÉTICO v REAL MADRID: BET BUILDER 🔴⚪
🏆 La Liga | 15:15 UK | all prices Bet365
🎯 Baena 2+ shots @ 1.615
• 7/10 in all competitions, 5/5 recently
• Last five: 5, 2, 2, 2, 4
• Cleared this line in every one of his last five
🏃 Bellingham 2+ fouls won @ 1.40
• 8/10, 5/5
• Last five: 2, 2, 4, 3, 3
• Two or more in each of his last five, including the Champions League win over Inter
🦵 Le Normand 1+ foul committed @ 1.333
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2

Singles multiplied: about 3.01. The bet builder price will differ.
⚠️ Referee Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias calls 22.3 fouls a game against a La Liga average of 25.1, and books less often than average. Both foul legs face that headwind — it's the main reason this builder could fail. All three start in the projected XIs, confirmed at 14:15.

Research at https://t.co/LeKKH4vhxY

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

ATLÉTICO v REAL MADRID: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK 🔴⚪

🏆 La Liga
📍 Riyadh Air Metropolitano | Today, 15:15 UK

Goals, corners, the referee, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
Last 10 La Liga matches:
🔴 Atlético: 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats. Scored in 8/10. Four clean sheets.
⚪ Real Madrid: 8 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats. Scored in 8/10. Three clean sheets.
Atlético's last five: 4–0 Osasuna, 3–0 at Real Sociedad, 0–3 at Athletic, 3–1 at Sevilla, 2–2 Villarreal.
Real's last five: 3–2 at Elche, 4–1 Rayo, 0–1 at Betis, 4–0 Málaga, 4–1 Real Sociedad.
Real Madrid are 2.00 to win, Atlético 3.60, the draw 3.80.
Neither side has a rest advantage: both played in midweek and both have had four or five days.

🔥 THE LAST FOUR DERBIES
Real 3–2 Atlético (March), Atlético 5–2 Real (September 2025), 1–1, 1–1.
Two of the four produced five or more goals. The other two produced two.

📉 THE PRICE THAT ALREADY MOVED
Last night our value board had a pick here: under 2.5 goals at 2.875 with Sky Bet, against a fair price of 2.65.
This morning it's gone. Pinnacle's under shortened from 2.75 to 2.53 between 06:00 and 07:15, the sharp market moving towards fewer goals, and Sky followed it down: 2.625 at 08:18, then 2.50 by 08:42.
Anyone who took 2.875 last night is holding a price better than today's fair one. That's the whole job: the number, not the teams.

⚽ GOALS
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.533 Bet365
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.50 Bet365 and Sky Bet
Fair price for the under, from Pinnacle with the margin stripped out: 2.65. The UK books are now below it, so there's nothing left in that line.
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 7/10 Atlético matches
• 6/10 Real Madrid matches
Worth knowing: the Betfair exchange pays 2.61 and Matchbook 2.63 on the same under, which is still closer to fair than any UK book.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.50 Bet365 and William Hill
NO @ 2.80 Sky Bet
BTTS occurred in:
• 4/10 Atlético matches
• 5/10 Real Madrid matches
Both records point to NO, and 2.80 implies about 36%. The counter-argument is the fixture: both teams scored in all four of the last four derbies.

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE: MIGUEL ÁNGEL ORTIZ ARIAS
Last 12 months, 22 matches with full stats:
• 22.3 fouls per game (La Liga average 25.1)
• 4.14 yellows per game (La Liga average 4.54)
• 0.27 reds per game: six in 22 matches
Last 10 foul counts: 27, 16, 19, 19, 23, 16, 24, 22, 21, 22
By La Liga standards he lets a lot go, nearly three fewer fouls a game than the league average and books less often. Every fouls line below faces that headwind. The reds are the exception: six in 22 is well above average for a referee this lenient.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.667 Sky Bet
10+ corners appeared in:
• 6/10 Atlético matches
• 5/10 Real Madrid matches
Last five totals:
Atlético: 8, 12, 11, 6, 8
Real Madrid: 7, 16, 16, 15, 11
Over 10.5 @ 2.00 Bet365 and Sky Bet. Real's recent matches are the high-corner half of this, and three of their last four cleared 11.

🚩 TEAM CORNERS
Atlético 5+ corners @ 1.80 Bet365
Their last 10: 8, 3, 8, 2, 5, 6, 9, 9, 4, 10 — that's 7/10.
Real Madrid 5+ corners @ 1.727 Sky Bet
Their last 10: 5, 11, 10, 9, 4, 8, 2, 4, 4, 8 — that's 6/10.
The opposition check cuts both ways: Atlético allowed opponents 5+ in 4/10, Real in 5/10.

🎯 MBAPPÉ — TOTAL SHOTS
4+ shots @ 1.444 Sky Bet
• 10/10 appearances in all competitions
• 5/5 most recently
• Last five: 4, 5, 4, 7, 6
• Ten starts from ten
Ten from ten at a price implying 69%. One of those was the Champions League win over Inter, where he had four. His shorter lines — 1+ at 1.05, 2+ at 1.04, 3+ at 1.167 — are the same record with nothing left in the price.

🎯 MBAPPÉ — SHOTS ON TARGET
2+ on target @ 1.615 Sky Bet
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4
3+ on target @ 2.80 Paddy Power — 6/10 and 4/5. Four or more on target in three of his last five.

🎯 BAENA — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.73 William Hill
• 7/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 5, 2, 2, 2, 4
• Cleared this line in each of his last five, and 9/10 for 1+
The best record-to-price line on the Atlético side of the page.

🦵 LE NORMAND — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.333 Bet365
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2
The referee is the caution here, not the record.

🦵 KONATÉ — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.50 Paddy Power
• 7/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 2, 3, 1, 1, 1
A foul in each of his last five, at the best price of any fouls line on the page.

🦵 HUIJSEN — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.50 Bet365
• 6/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 3, 2, 2, 0

🏃 CRISTIAN ROMERO — FOULS WON
1+ foul won @ 1.615 Bet365
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 0, 1, 2

🏃 VINÍCIUS — FOULS WON
2+ fouls won @ 1.30 Bet365
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 3, 2, 1, 4, 3
His 1+ is 9/10 at 1.05. The 2+ line is the one with any room in it, and a lenient referee is the reason to be careful with both.

🔎 STRONG RECORDS THAT NEED A SECOND LOOK
Valverde had 1+ shot in 8/10 at 1.533, but only 3/5 recently, with last five of 0, 2, 2, 1, 0.
Llorente committed 1+ foul in 7/10 at 1.30, but 2/5 recently: 0, 1, 0, 0, 2.
Baena committed 1+ foul in 5/10 at 1.30 — a 50% record priced at 77%.
Mbappé won 1+ foul in 6/10 at 1.40, but his last five read 3, 0, 0, 0, 1.
A record is evidence. A price is a claim about the future. They are not the same thing.

Explore the research
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[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

MAN CITY v SUNDERLAND: BET BUILDER 🩵🔴
🏆 Premier League | 14:00 UK | all prices Bet365
🦵 Mukiele 1+ foul committed @ 1.333
• 8/10 in all competitions, 4/5 recently
• Last five: 3, 3, 1, 0, 3
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each
🏃 Sadiki 1+ foul won @ 1.533
• 9/10, 4/5
• Last five: 2, 0, 2, 1, 3
• Ten starts from ten
🎯 Le Fée 2+ shots @ 1.909
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 4, 3, 3, 4, 0
• Ten starts from ten, 80+ minutes in each

Singles multiplied: about 3.90. The bet builder price will differ.

Research from https://t.co/LeKKH4vhxY

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

MAN CITY v SUNDERLAND: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK 🩵🔴

🏆 Premier League
��� Etihad Stadium | Today, 14:00 UK

Goals, corners, the referee, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
Last 10 Premier League matches:
🩵 City: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. Scored in 10/10. Five clean sheets.
🔴 Sunderland: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats. Scored in 7/10. Two clean sheets.
City's last five: 1–0 at Man Utd, 1–0 v Coventry, 4–1 at Palace, 2–1 v Bournemouth, 1–2 v Villa.
Sunderland's last five: 0–2 v Arsenal, 1–1 at Brentford, 1–0 v Fulham, 1–2 at Ipswich, 2–1 v Chelsea.
City are 1.35 to win, Sunderland 9.00, the draw 5.50.

⏱️ WHO ACTUALLY PLAYED MIDWEEK
Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1–0 in the Europa League on Wednesday, and they did it with the first team: Xhaka, Le Fée, Sadiki and Mukiele all played 90 minutes.
City won 5–0 against Norwich in the Carabao Cup on Thursday with a rotated side. Haaland, Semenyo, Guehi, Gvardiol and Anderson did not feature. City's XI last played on 13 September.
A full week's rest against a European trip and 90 minutes on Wednesday.

⚽ GOALS
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.571 Bet365
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.40 Sky Bet
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 6/10 City matches
• 5/10 Sunderland matches
City's match totals: 1, 1, 5, 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 6, 1
Both of City's last two finished 1–0. Six of their ten had three or more. That is the whole argument in one line: which half of their record you believe.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.909 Bet365
NO @ 1.909 Bet365 and Sky Bet
The books can't split it, and the records explain why. City kept five clean sheets in ten. Sunderland scored in 7/10 but managed one goal or none in four of their last five.

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE: ROBERT JONES
Last 12 months, 21 matches with full stats:
• 4.43 yellows per game (Premier League average 3.99)
• 22.2 fouls per game (Premier League average 21.8)
Last 10 yellow counts: 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 5, 8
A cards official more than a fouls one. He books more than average without calling more fouls, so the fouls lines below don't need adjusting for him.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS: THE SHARPEST DISAGREEMENT ON THE PAGE
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.533 Sky Bet
Over 10.5 @ 1.85 Paddy Power | Under 10.5 @ 1.95 William Hill
10+ corners appeared in:
• 8/10 City matches
• 1/10 Sunderland matches
City's match totals: 13, 9, 8, 11, 13, 13, 13, 12, 14, 14
Sunderland's: 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 5, 13, 9, 9, 9
Twenty matches, and the two records could not disagree more. One of them is going to be wrong today.

🚩 CITY TEAM CORNERS
City 7+ corners @ 1.667 Sky Bet
Their last 10 counts, newest first: 7, 4, 6, 8, 9, 6, 9, 10, 9, 11
That's 7/10 at the line, and 9/10 clearing 6+ (priced 1.40).
The opposition check: Sunderland's matches produced 10+ corners once in ten, and they have faced nothing like this attack in that run.
Sunderland 4+ corners @ 2.20 Bet365 is the other side: 5/10 on their own record, and City allowed opponents 4+ in 6/10.

🎯 HAALAND — TOTAL SHOTS
4+ shots @ 1.615 Bet365
• 7/10 appearances in all competitions
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 6, 4, 5, 5
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in every one
The 6 came in the Champions League at Porto. 5+ shots @ 2.375 Bet365 — 6/10 and 3/5.

🎯 HAALAND — SHOTS ON TARGET
2+ on target @ 1.533 Sky Bet
• 6/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 4, 3, 3, 2
His 1+ is 10/10 at 1.10, which is a real record at a price that leaves nothing. The 2+ line is where the record still has room.

🎯 LE FÉE — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 2.20 Sky Bet
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 4, 3, 3, 4, 0
• Ten starts from ten, 80+ minutes in each
The biggest price on the page attached to an 8/10 record. He had four shots in Europe on Wednesday.
1+ shot on target @ 2.50 Bet365 — 7/10 and 4/5, last five 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.
The caution is the fixture: Sunderland's shot volume at the Etihad is likely to be their lowest of the season.

🦵 MUKIELE — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.333 Bet365
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 3, 3, 1, 0, 3
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each
2+ fouls @ 2.625 Bet365 — 6/10 and 3/5.
This is the line the match shape points at. A defender who commits three fouls in most games, in a match his side will spend defending. The 2+ price is the one that hasn't fully priced that in.

🦵 TRAI HUME — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.50 Bet365
• 7/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2
His minutes bounce around: 67, 90, 26, 90, 80. The record is clean, the starting place is the question.

🏃 SADIKI — FOULS WON
1+ foul won @ 1.533 Bet365
• 9/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 0, 2, 1, 3
2+ fouls won @ 3.50 Bet365 — 7/10 and 3/5, which is the largest gap between a record and a price anywhere on this page.
The honest caveat: fouls won usually needs the ball, and Sunderland will not have much of it. That is a reason the price is 3.50, not a reason to ignore the record.

🏃 LE FÉE — FOULS WON
1+ foul won @ 1.40 William Hill
• 9/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 5, 1, 2, 2, 1
The 5 came against AZ on Wednesday.

🦵 SEMENYO — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.30 Paddy Power
• 8/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 3, 3, 1, 1, 2
• Ten starts from ten, all of them for City

🦵 GUEHI — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.909 Bet365
• 6/10 and 3/5
• Last five: 0, 2, 0, 1, 1
A centre-back at nearly 2.00, and the price reflects the obvious: City defenders do less defending than most. His 1+ foul WON is 9/10 at 1.364.

⚖️ WHAT WE'RE NOT CLAIMING
Our value board has no pick on this match. The match result, goals and handicap prices all sit inside the margin of Pinnacle's fair line, so there is nothing here we would call value. Everything above is a record at a price, which is a different thing.

⚠️ BEFORE KICK-OFF
Records cover every competition: the Premier League, the Champions League, the Europa League and the Carabao Cup. Sunderland's cup win over Hull and their Europa night against AZ are both counted, as is City's trip to Porto.
Prices checked at 12:30 UK, with the last sweep of the UK books at 12:03. The XIs land an hour before kick-off, and City rotated heavily on Thursday, so check them.

Explore the research
https://t.co/D9tkkjTmF5

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

BOURNEMOUTH v LIVERPOOL: BET BUILDER 🍒🔴

🏆 Premier League | 14:00 UK | all prices Bet365
🎯 Szoboszlai 1+ shot on target @ 1.727
• 9/10 in all competitions, 4/5 recently
• Last five: 2, 1, 1, 3, 0
• Ten starts from ten
🏃 Alex Scott 2+ fouls won @ 1.50
• 7/10, 4/5
• Last five: 6, 3, 5, 3, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 87+ minutes in each
🦵 James Hill 1+ foul committed @ 1.333
• 9/10, 5/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of his last six

Singles multiplied: about 3.45. The bet builder price will differ.
✅ Referee Michael Oliver calls 23.2 fouls a game against a league average of 21.8, and books fewer of them. Both fouls legs run with him.

Research at https://t.co/LeKKH4vhxY

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

BOURNEMOUTH v LIVERPOOL: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK 🍒🔴

🏆 Premier League
📍 Vitality Stadium | Today, 14:00 UK

Goals, corners, the referee, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
Last 10 Premier League matches:
🍒 Bournemouth: 3 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat. Scored in 10/10. Two clean sheets.
🔴 Liverpool: 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats. Scored in 9/10. Two clean sheets.
Eleven draws between them in twenty matches. Neither side has lost a league game since 23 August.

This season:
🍒 1–2 at Man City, 1–1 Everton, 2–2 at Newcastle, 2–2 Brentford
🔴 2–2 at Newcastle, 2–2 Forest, 2–0 at Ipswich, 0–0 Fulham

⏱️ THE THING THE TABLE DOESN'T SHOW
Bournemouth played in San Sebastián on Thursday night, winning 2–1 at Real Sociedad in the Europa League. Kick-off there was 20:00. Kick-off here is 14:00 on Sunday.
Liverpool last played on Tuesday, beating Spurs 3–1 in the Carabao Cup.
Two days' more rest and no flight. Every record below is a record; this is the thing records can't price.

⚽ GOALS
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.533 Bet365
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 Sky Bet
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 6/10 Bournemouth matches
• 6/10 Liverpool matches
This season's totals:
Bournemouth: 3, 2, 4, 4
Liverpool: 4, 4, 2, 0
Liverpool's last two were 2 and 0. Bournemouth's last two were 4 and 4.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.444 Bet365
NO @ 3.10 Sky Bet
BTTS occurred in 8/10 for both sides, and in three of Bournemouth's four this season.
1.444 implies about 69%, which is roughly what both records say. This one is priced where the evidence sits.

🤝 THE DRAW @ 3.80 Bet365
Bournemouth drew 6 of their last 10, Liverpool 5. Three of Bournemouth's four this season are draws, and two of Liverpool's.
3.80 implies about 26%. Both records say more.
The caution: these are two draw records, not one. Liverpool are 2.15 to win here and Bournemouth 3.10, so the market is not treating this as a coin toss either.

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE: MICHAEL OLIVER
Last 12 months, 29 matches with full stats:
• 23.2 fouls per game (Premier League average 21.8)
• 3.28 yellows per game (Premier League average 3.99)
• One red card in 29 matches
Last 10 foul counts: 27, 15, 18, 31, 33, 16, 20, 26, 25, 30
He calls more fouls than average and books fewer of them. A fouls official rather than a cards one, which is a tailwind for every fouls line below. The spread, 15 to 33, is the caution.

🚩 LIVERPOOL TEAM CORNERS
Liverpool 5+ corners @ 1.667 Sky Bet
Their last 10 corner counts, newest first:
5, 3, 3, 6, 14, 9, 5, 2, 5, 6
That's 7/10 clearing the line.
The opposition check: Bournemouth allowed opponents 5+ corners in 5/10.
Bournemouth's own 5+ is 1.727 Bet365 on a 4/10 record, which is the weaker half of the same market.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.615 Sky Bet
10+ corners appeared in:
• 5/10 Bournemouth matches
• 4/10 Liverpool matches
Last five totals:
Bournemouth: 3, 7, 16, 11, 9
Liverpool: 13, 7, 8, 8, 16
Over 10.5 @ 2.00 Sky Bet for the harder line. Nine of the twenty matches above cleared 10.5.

🎯 SZOBOSZLAI — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 1.80 Paddy Power
• 9/10 appearances in all competitions
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 1, 1, 3, 0
• Ten starts from ten
The best price on the page attached to a 9/10 record. The 2 came on 28 minutes in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
2+ shots @ 1.571 Sky Bet — 8/10 and 4/5, last five 2, 2, 1, 3, 3.

🎯 WIRTZ — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.60 William Hill
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 3, 0, 2, 2, 3
• 90 minutes in each of his last five
The 0 was the Champions League night against Atlético.

🎯 ISAK — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 1.364 Bet365
• 7/10 and 3/5
• Last five: 0, 1, 0, 2, 1
Read that record carefully. The most recent 0 was four minutes off the bench in the Carabao Cup, which counts as a miss in the hit rate and tells you nothing. In his last four league starts he has 1, 0, 2 and 1.

JAMES HILL — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.533 Sky Bet and Paddy Power
• 9/10 appearances
• 5/5 most recently
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of his last six, Europa League and Carabao Cup included
Exactly one foul in five straight games, in front of a referee who calls more fouls than average. The cleanest record-and-minutes combination here.

ADAM SMITH — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.50 Bet365
• 9/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 2, 1, 1
He came off after 63 minutes in Spain on Thursday, so he is the one on this list most likely to be rested or withdrawn early.

ALEX SCOTT — FOULS WON
2+ fouls won @ 1.50 Bet365
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 6, 3, 5, 3, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 87+ minutes in each
3+ fouls won @ 2.15 William Hill — 5/10 overall but 4/5 recently, and the 6 came at Real Sociedad on Thursday.
This is fouls won, not committed.

EVANILSON — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.444 Sky Bet
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 0, 3, 2
2+ fouls WON @ 2.00 Sky Bet — 6/10 and 3/5, last five 3, 2, 1, 4, 1.

TRUFFERT — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.364 Paddy Power
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 3, 0, 4
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of the last six

🔎 STRONG RECORDS THAT NEED A SECOND LOOK
V��ctor Muñoz won 1+ foul in 10/10 and it is 1.286. A perfect record at a price that leaves nothing.
Tavernier's 1+ shot on target is 1.67 on a 6/10 record, but only 2/5 recently, and two of those blanks were Thursday in Spain and a 12-minute cup start.
Ben Doak had 1+ shot in 5/10 at 1.143, from two starts in ten and last-five minutes of 19, 8, 78, 1 and 1.
Gravenberch had 1+ shot in 6/10 at 1.444, but 1/5 recently on minutes of 28, 60, 21, 26 and 19. His role is shrinking.
A hit rate only counts if the player is going to be on the pitch for it.

⚖️ WHAT WE'RE NOT CLAIMING
Our value board has no pick on this match. The match result, goals and handicap prices all sit inside the margin of Pinnacle's fair line, so there is no price here we would call value. Everything above is a record at a price, which is a different thing.

⚠️ BEFORE KICK-OFF
Records cover every competition: the Premier League, the Champions League, the Europa League and the Carabao Cup. Bournemouth have played a Carabao Cup tie and a Europa League tie since 8 September, and both are counted.
Prices checked at 12:15 UK, with the last sweep of the UK books at 12:03. Team news moves lines most, and the XIs land an hour before kick-off. After a Thursday night in Spain, this is a match where the teamsheet matters more than usual.

Explore the research:
https://t.co/YI9eIYIkod

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

FOREST v COVENTRY: BET BUILDER 🌳🔵
🏆 Premier League | 17:30 UK
🎯 Gibbs-White 1+ shot on target @ 1.50
• 8/10 in all competitions, 4/5 recently
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 0, 1
• 90 minutes in every one of them

Onyeka 2+ fouls won @ 1.40
• 7/10, 3/5
• Last five: 4, 0, 1, 3, 3
• Ten starts from ten

Bobby Thomas 1+ foul won @ 1.50
• 8/10, 4/5
• Last five: 0, 2, 1, 3, 1
• Ten starts from ten, including Tuesday's Carabao Cup tie
Singles multiplied: about 3.15. Your bookmaker's bet builder price will differ.
⚠️ Referee Jarred Gillett calls about one foul a game fewer than the league average. That works against both fouls-won legs.

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

WHAT LANDED FROM OUR POSTS: FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO FAR ✅

🎯 ALTRINCHAM TO WIN @ 5.50
From this morning's win picks. The price sat above Pinnacle's margin-free line of 5.14, and they won 2–1 at AFC Fylde.

🔵🔴 BRIGHTON 3–0 ARSENAL
We wrote: "The league's top scorers against the side that has conceded fewest. Something gives." Arsenal gave.
✅ BTTS NO @ 2.10 Sky Bet: both records leaned no, and Arsenal didn't score
✅ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.727 Bet365
✅ Under 3.5 goals @ 1.444 Bet365
✅ Brighton 5+ corners @ 2.20 Sky Bet: exactly 5, against a side that had allowed 5+ once in ten
✅ Gross 1+ shot on target @ 2.875 Paddy Power
✅ Boscagli 2+ fouls won @ 3.00 Bet365 (1+ @ 1.444 too)
✅ Havertz 1+ shot on target @ 1.533 Bet365
✅ Saka 1+ shot on target @ 1.40 Bet365
✅ Gross 1+ foul committed @ 1.444 Paddy Power
✅ Darren England: 5 yellows, above his 4.48 average. We called him a cards referee.
🔎 We flagged Gyökeres: one game with a shot in his last five, and five starts in ten. He came off the bench for 17 minutes and didn't have a shot.

⚪🟣 TOTTENHAM 2–3 ASTON VILLA
✅ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 William Hill: five goals
✅ Over 9.5 corners @ 1.667 Sky Bet: 12
✅ Spurs 5+ corners @ 1.444 Sky Bet: they had 11 (6+ @ 1.85 too)
✅ Van de Ven 1+ foul won @ 1.909 Paddy Power: he won 4. We called it the best price on the page attached to a 7/10 record.
✅ Manzambi 2+ shots @ 1.444 Sky Bet: 4 shots, 2 on target
✅ Buendía 1+ foul won @ 1.222 Paddy Power
🔎 We left Senesi out because he hadn't played a league game since 22 August. He didn't play.

📋 PROPS AT 1.50+
✅ Pascal Gross 1+ shot @ 1.61 Paddy Power: 2 shots
✅ Ko Itakura 1+ shot @ 1.61 Bet365: 1 shot, on target, in Gladbach 3–4 Mainz
✅ Nahuel Tenaglia 1+ foul won @ 1.50 Sky Bet: he won 3

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE POST
Most cards:
✅ Tim Robinson, Stoke v Sheffield United: 8 yellows (his average 4.48)
✅ Elliot Bell, Cardiff v Charlton: 8 yellows (4.55)
✅ Stuart Attwell, Everton v Ipswich: 4 yellows and a second-yellow red (4.61)
Fewest cards:
✅ David Webb, Birmingham v Middlesbrough: 2 yellows (2.36)

🐝🔵 FRIDAY NIGHT: BRENTFORD 3–0 CHELSEA
✅ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.533 Bet365
✅ Under 3.5 goals @ 1.667 Bet365
✅ Over 9.5 corners @ 1.727 Bet365, and over 10.5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet: 16 corners
✅ Schade 2+ shots @ 1.533 Bet365: 3 shots, 1 on target (1+ on target @ 1.615 too)
✅ Igor Thiago 2+ shots @ 1.286 Bet365: 3
✅ Rogers 2+ shots @ 1.286 Bet365: 4

⏳ STILL TO COME TONIGHT
Barella (Roma v Inter), Gibbs-White (Forest v Coventry), Angers to beat Troyes @ 2.20, and Lamine Yamal 2+ shots on target (Sevilla v Barcelona).

All data from:
https://t.co/wtXNSEjwhO

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

TODAY'S WIN PICKS: PRICED ABOVE THE SHARP LINE 🎯

That's the only thing that makes a price value: not the team, the gap between what you're paid and what the sharp market says it's worth.

🇪🇸 REAL SOCIEDAD B to beat MALLORCA
Segunda División, 13:00
@ 4.20 Bet365
Fair price: 3.74 (27%)
• The biggest gap on today's card: you're paid as if it's 24%.
• Real Sociedad B are unbeaten in three, including 3–1 away at Andorra.
• Mallorca haven't won away this season: 0–0 at Eldense, 0–2 at Granada.
• Why it's there: Bet365 hasn't moved this price since yesterday evening. Paddy Power and Sky have cut to 3.60 and 3.50 this morning, and Pinnacle moved again at 11:27. A soft book that hasn't caught up is where value usually comes from, and it rarely lasts.
• Caution: Bet365 is the only UK book this far out. The Betfair exchange is at 4.04.

🇫🇷 ANGERS to beat TROYES
Ligue 1, 19:45
@ 2.20 Bet365 (William Hill and Paddy Power 2.15, also above fair)
Fair price: 2.14 (47%)
• Troyes are newly promoted and have conceded eight in their last two: 2–6 v Strasbourg, 0–2 at Lille.
• Caution: Angers have lost both home games this season, to Rennes and Lille. This is a price case more than a form case.

🇬🇧 ALTRINCHAM to beat AFC FYLDE
National League, 15:00
@ 5.50 Paddy Power (Sky Bet 5.25, also above fair)
Fair price: 5.14 (19%)
• Altrincham have won four of their last five.
• William Hill and Bet365 are only 4.50, so take the price where it is.
• The long one on the list. Fylde have won four of five themselves, so expect this to lose more often than it wins. The price is the reason it's here.

🔎 THE ONE WE LEFT OUT
Bromley to beat Huddersfield @ 5.50 is above the sharp line too.
But Bromley have conceded 16 in four, including 2–7 and 0–5, and the exchange is offering 5.9. When a price only looks good against one reference and the football says no, the market usually knows something.

⚠️ BEFORE YOU ACT
• Prices checked at 11:37 UK. They move, and these gaps close: Bristol Rovers at Gillingham was 2.15 at 11:05, above its fair price of 2.10, and Bet365 cut it to 2.05 at 11:35. Check the price is still above the fair price before you take it.
• A price above the fair line wins over hundreds of bets, not on any one Saturday. Most of these will lose; that's what 19–47% means.

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

@LL_Analyst Yeah that's interesting. Small sample still, but the higher score hasn't separated itself yet. Will be interesting to see how it looks with more volume.

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

TODAY'S PROPS AT 1.50+ WITH A REAL RECORD BEHIND THEM 📋

Every player prop on today's card priced 1.50 or bigger, for every player we hold records on, filtered hard:
• Hit the line in at least 8 of their last 10 appearances in all competitions, and 4 of the last 5
• A regular starter who started his most recent game
• No cards, no anytime scorer

What survived 👇

🎯 KO ITAKURA — 1+ SHOT
Gladbach v Mainz, 14:30
@ 1.61 Bet365 (the only book pricing it)
• 10/10 recorded appearances, 5/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in every one of the last five
The price implies 62%. His record is ten from ten.

🎯 CALLUM DOYLE — 1+ SHOT
Wrexham v Southampton, 15:00
@ 1.73 Bet365 (the only book pricing it)
• 9/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 2, 0, 1
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of the last five
The price implies 58%.

NAHUEL TENAGLIA — 1+ FOUL WON
Athletic Club v Alavés, 15:15
@ 1.50 Sky Bet
• 9/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 1, 0
• Ten starts from ten
Two of the three books pricing it are at 1.50, so this isn't one bookmaker out on its own.

🎯 PASCAL GROSS — 1+ SHOT
Brighton v Arsenal, 15:00
@ 1.61 Paddy Power
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 5, 1, 0, 2
• Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of the last five
Three of the four books pricing it are at 1.50 or bigger.
Brighton's Conference League and Carabao Cup games hold no player stats in our feed, so they aren't in his record.

MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE — 1+ FOUL COMMITTED
Forest v Coventry, 17:30
@ 1.57 Paddy Power
• 8/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
• 90 minutes in each of the last five
One caution: referee Jarred Gillett calls 1.1 fewer fouls a game than the league average. Forest's Carabao Cup tie on 25 August holds no player stats, so it isn't in his record.
He's also 1+ shot on target @ 1.50 Sky Bet (8/10, 4/5). Two views of the same player, not two independent bets.

🎯 NADIEM AMIRI — 1+ SHOT ON TARGET
Gladbach v Mainz, 14:30
@ 1.61 Bet365 (the only book pricing it)
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 1, 0, 1, 1
• Nine starts from ten
Also 2+ shots @ 1.53 Bet365 (8/10, 4/5, last five 2, 3, 2, 3, 1). Same player, same caveat about stacking them.

🎯 LAMINE YAMAL — 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET
Sevilla v Barcelona, 20:00
@ 1.73 William Hill
• 8/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 2, 2, 2, 4, 2
• Ten starts from ten, two of them in the Champions League
Two on target in each of his last five. The price implies 58%.

🎯 NICOLÒ BARELLA — 1+ SHOT
Roma v Inter, 17:00
@ 1.50 Paddy Power
• 8/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 3, 1, 1, 2, 2
• Ten starts from ten
One of those five was in the Champions League, where the feed undercounts shots, and he still registered.

🎯 HARRISON CLARKE — 1+ SHOT
QPR v Preston, 15:00
@ 1.73 Bet365 (the only book pricing it)
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 2, 0, 1, 2
• Ten starts from ten
Six of those ten were for Preston and four for Charlton, so part of the record belongs to his old club. Preston's Carabao Cup tie on 26 August holds no player stats.

🔎 STRONG RECORDS WE LEFT OUT, AND WHY
• Senesi, 1+ foul won @ 1.73: 9/10, but nine of those were for Bournemouth. He started Tuesday's Carabao Cup tie at Liverpool, but hasn't played in the league since 22 August.
• Bruno Guimarães, 2+ fouls won @ 1.73: 8/10, seven of them for Newcastle. For Arsenal he has 88 minutes across three appearances.
• Porro, 1+ foul won @ 1.53: 8/10, but he had no minutes in either of Spurs' last two games, and wasn't in the squad at Liverpool on Tuesday.
• Philogene, 1+ shot on target @ 1.73: 8/10, but only five starts in ten.
A hit rate only counts if the player is going to be on the pitch.

⚠️ BEFORE YOU ACT
• Prices captured around 10:30 UK. Check the XIs: every record above assumes a start.
• These are records, not predictions. An 8/10 record still misses two times in ten.

Every player's per-90 numbers
https://t.co/0tyDyO3YDD

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

BRIGHTON v ARSENAL: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK 🔵🔴

🏆 Premier League
📍 Amex Stadium | Today, 15:00 UK

Goals, corners, the referee, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
Last 10 recorded Premier League matches:
🔵 Brighton: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats. Scored in 8/10.
🔴 Arsenal: 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat. Scored in 10/10. Clean sheets in 7/10.
This season Brighton have scored 13 in four games, including 4–0 v Villa and 5–0 at Coventry. Arsenal have conceded once in four.
The league's top scorers against the side that has conceded fewest. Something gives.
Last four meetings: Arsenal 2 wins, 2 draws. None had more than three goals.

⚽ GOALS: THE RECORDS DISAGREE
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.727 Bet365
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 8/10 Brighton league matches
• 5/10 Arsenal league matches
Last five match goal totals:
Brighton: 5, 2, 7, 4, 3
Arsenal: 2, 3, 1, 3, 3

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.444 Bet365
That landed in:
• 10/10 Arsenal matches
• 5/10 Brighton matches
Every Arsenal league game in the sample finished with three goals or fewer. Brighton's record points the other way. The price sits between the two.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.75 Bet365
NO @ 2.10 Sky Bet
BTTS occurred in:
• 4/10 Brighton matches
• 3/10 Arsenal matches
Both records lean to NO, and 2.10 implies only about 48%.
But look at why. Arsenal's comes from seven clean sheets. Brighton's comes mostly from their own four clean sheets, and they've scored in 8/10.
So this line comes down to one question: can Brighton, scoring in every game this season, score against a side that has conceded once in four?

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE: DARREN ENGLAND
Last 12 months, 23 matches with full stats:
• 4.48 yellows per game (Premier League average 3.99)
• 21.6 fouls per game (Premier League average 21.8)
Last 10 yellow counts: 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 7, 3, 10, 4, 6
He books more than average without calling more fouls. A cards referee rather than a fouls one, so the fouls lines below don't need adjusting for him.

🚩 BRIGHTON TEAM CORNERS
Brighton 5+ corners @ 2.20 Sky Bet
Their last 10 corner counts, newest first:
3, 7, 7, 5, 0, 8, 7, 10, 6, 5
That's 8/10 clearing the line, and 3/5 recently.
The opposition check: Arsenal allowed opponents 5+ corners in just 1/10.
Last 10 allowed: 4, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 8
The sharpest disagreement on the page. One of these records is going to lose.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS
Under 9.5 corners @ 1.75 William Hill
9 or fewer appeared in:
• 8/10 Arsenal matches
• 4/10 Brighton matches
Last five totals:
Arsenal: 6, 8, 6, 10, 7
Brighton: 8, 13, 11, 7, 3
Over 9.5 @ 2.00 Bet365 for the other side of it.
Arsenal's games are low-corner games. Brighton's are not.

🎯 SAKA — TOTAL SHOTS
3+ shots @ 1.67 William Hill
• 5/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 4, 4, 2, 3, 3
Nine starts from ten, 90 minutes in four of the last five.
2+ @ 1.20 Bet365 — 9/10 and 5/5, priced accordingly.

🎯 SAKA — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 1.40 Paddy Power
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 3, 3, 1, 1, 0
The 0 was last weekend. This and his shots market are two views of the same player, not independent evidence for an accumulator.

🎯 GÓMEZ — TOTAL SHOTS
3+ shots @ 2.80 Paddy Power
• 6/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 4, 5, 3, 3
Nine starts from ten.
2+ @ 1.615 Sky Bet — 7/10 and 5/5.

🎯 VUŠKOVIĆ — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 2.75 William Hill
• 5/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 2, 2, 2, 1
A centre-back with two shots in four straight games. Six of his last ten appearances were for Hamburg; the recent run is Brighton's.

🎯 GROSS — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 2.875 Paddy Power
• 6/10 and 3/5
• Last five: 1, 0, 1, 0, 1
Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in every one of the last five.

🎯 HAVERTZ — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 1.533 Bet365
• 6/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 1, 1, 0

BOSCAGLI — FOULS WON
1+ foul WON @ 1.444 Bet365
• 8/10 recorded appearances
• 5/5 most recently
• Last five: 1, 2, 2, 1, 2
2+ @ 3.00 Bet365 — 5/10 and 3/5.
This is fouls won, not committed.

GROSS — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.444 Paddy Power
• 7/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 2, 2, 2, 1, 1

Explore the research, free and no account:
https://t.co/6V51Huolyq

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

TODAY'S REFEREES: WHO BOOKS, WHO DOESN'T 🧑‍⚖️

Cards per game across each official's recorded matches.

🟨 Most cards
• Stuart Attwell, Everton v Ipswich (15:00): 4.61 a game over 46 matches
• Elliot Bell, Cardiff v Charlton (12:30): 4.55 over 20
• Tim Robinson, Stoke v Sheffield United (12:30): 4.48 over 25, and 1.2 more fouls a game than the Championship average
• Juan Martínez Munuera, Sevilla v Barcelona (20:00): 4.28, with 2.3 more fouls a game than the La Liga average
• Davide Massa, Roma v Inter (17:00): 4.27, and 1.8 more fouls a game than the Serie A average

🟩 Fewest cards
• David Webb, Birmingham v Middlesbrough (15:00): 2.36 a game over 55 matches
• Robert Hartmann, Gladbach v Mainz (14:30): 2.82, despite calling 1.3 more fouls a game than the Bundesliga average
• Gavin Ward, Wrexham v Southampton (15:00): 2.94 over 52
• Tobias Stieler, Stuttgart v Dortmund (17:30): 3.10

A strict official lifts every card and foul line in the match at once. A lenient one does the opposite.

Every official with a match this week, with fouls and cards per game, free:
https://t.co/oTPVfQGlOQ

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

TOTTENHAM v ASTON VILLA: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK ⚪🟣

🏆 Premier League
📍 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Today, 12:30 UK

Goals, corners, the referee, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
This season, four Premier League games each:
⚪ Spurs: 0–0 Everton, 0–0 at Forest, 0–2 Newcastle, 0–3 at Brentford
🟣 Villa: 1–2 Forest, 0–0 at Hull, 0–1 Arsenal, 0–4 at Brighton
Spurs have not scored in the league this season. Villa have scored once.
That is one goal between them in eight matches, and neither side has won.

Last 10 recorded Premier League matches, reaching back into last season:
⚪ Spurs: 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats. Scored in 6/10, every one of them last season.
🟣 Villa: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats. Scored in 6/10. One clean sheet in 10.
Last meeting: Villa 1–2 Spurs, 3 May.

⚽ GOALS: TWO RECORDS, TWO STORIES
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 William Hill
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 4/10 Spurs league matches, 1/4 this season
• 7/10 Villa league matches, 2/4 this season
This season's goal totals:
Spurs: 0, 0, 2, 3
Villa: 3, 0, 1, 4

Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 Bet365
The longer Villa record leans to goals. This season leans the other way for both. Which sample you trust is the whole question here.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.62 William Hill
NO @ 2.375 Sky Bet
BTTS occurred in:
• 4/10 Spurs matches, 0/4 this season
• 6/10 Villa matches, 1/4 this season
1.62 implies roughly 62%. This season it has happened once in eight matches between them.
Four games is a small sample, but it is the only one either side has played with this season's squad.

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE: SAMUEL BARROTT
Last 12 months, 23 matches with full stats:
• 19.3 fouls per game (Premier League average 21.8)
• 3.83 yellows per game (Premier League average 3.99)
• 0.04 reds per game: one red in 23 matches
Last 10 foul counts: 23, 19, 12, 19, 24, 23, 22, 13, 18, 18
He lets more go than the average referee. Every fouls line below faces that headwind.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.667 Sky Bet
10+ corners appeared in:
• 9/10 Spurs matches, and all 4 this season
• 4/10 Villa matches, and none of 4 this season
This season's totals:
Spurs: 11, 12, 16, 10
Villa: 7, 7, 6, 7
One side's record is doing all of the supporting work.

🚩 SPURS TEAM CORNERS
Spurs 5+ corners @ 1.444 Sky Bet
Last 10, newest first: 5, 10, 9, 3, 7, 4, 14, 5, 5, 7
That's 8/10 and 4/5.
6+ corners @ 1.85 Paddy Power: 5/10 and 3/5.
The opposition check: Villa allowed opponents 5+ corners in 5/10.
Spurs are winning corners and not scoring from any of it. That is the shape of their season in one line.

🎯 PORRO — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 2.00 Bet365
• 7/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 4, 2, 0, 2
90 minutes in each of the last five, all for Spurs.
His latest recorded appearance is 5 September; he did not feature against Everton last weekend. Check the XI before anything else.

🎯 MANZAMBI — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.444 Sky Bet
• 7/10 and 3/5
• Last five: 0, 2, 0, 3, 3
Nine of those ten appearances were for Freiburg. One recorded game for Villa so far, so this is a Bundesliga record being priced in the Premier League.

🎯 MAATSEN — TOTAL SHOTS
1+ shot @ 1.533 Bet365
• 6/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 0, 2, 1, 1
75+ minutes in each of the last five.

VAN DE VEN — FOULS WON
1+ foul WON @ 1.909 Paddy Power
• 7/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 1, 1, 1, 0, 1
Ten starts from ten, all for Spurs, and 90 minutes in each of the last five.
The best price attached to a 7/10 record on the page, on the cleanest minutes record.

McGINN — FOULS WON
2+ fouls won @ 1.533 Sky Bet
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 5, 2, 2, 4, 0
The 0 came in a four-minute appearance, the oldest of the five. In the four games since, he won 13.
This is fouls won, not committed.

BUENDÍA — FOULS WON
1+ foul WON @ 1.222 Paddy Power
• 9/10 and 5/5
• Last five: 2, 1, 1, 2, 3
2+ @ 1.667 Bet365 — 5/10 and 3/5.
Seven starts in ten, so worth confirming he is in the XI.

KAMARA — FOULS WON
2+ fouls won @ 2.10 William Hill
• 6/10 and 2/5
• Last five: 3, 3, 0, 1, 1
Ten starts from ten. A longer-record case: the recent run is the weaker half.

🛡️ BENTANCUR — TACKLES
2+ tackles won @ 1.40 Sky Bet
• 8/10 recorded appearances
• 3/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 1, 2, 2, 1
1+ @ 1.071 Bet365 — 10/10 and 5/5, at a price that leaves nothing.

⚠️ BEFORE KICK-OFF
Several players in these lines joined over the summer, so part of their records were built at previous clubs. Each section says so where it applies.
Prices captured at 09:15 UK. Team news moves lines most, and the XIs land an hour before kick-off.

Explore the research, free and no account:
https://t.co/CmwStoM1X9

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

@pryseuk Exactly. That’s why the price is shown alongside the record. 9/10 is the sample, not a claim of 90% probability.

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

BRENTFORD v CHELSEA: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK 🐝🔵

🏆 Premier League
📍 Gtech Community Stadium | Tonight, 20:00 UK

Goals, corners, the referee, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
Last 10 recorded Premier League matches:
🐝 Brentford: 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats
🔵 Chelsea: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats
Both sides scored in 8/10.
Brentford have drawn four of their last five: 2–2 at Bournemouth, 1–1 v Sunderland, 1–1 at Leeds, 1–1 at Liverpool.
Chelsea have kept 0 clean sheets in their last 10. They conceded in every one of them.

⚽ GOALS
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.533 Bet365
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 6/10 Brentford league matches
• 8/10 Chelsea league matches
Last five match goal totals:
Brentford: 4, 2, 2, 3, 2
Chelsea: 4, 3, 7, 5, 3

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.667 Bet365
That landed in:
• 8/10 Brentford matches
• 6/10 Chelsea matches
Chelsea's matches carry the goals. Brentford's run of 1–1s is the other half of the argument.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.444 Bet365
NO @ 3.00 Sky Bet
BTTS occurred in:
• 6/10 Brentford matches
• 8/10 Chelsea matches
Unusually, both records point the same way. Chelsea have conceded in all ten and Brentford have scored in eight.
The price has noticed: 1.444 implies roughly 69%.

🤝 THE DRAW
Draw @ 3.75 Bet365
Brentford drew 6/10. Chelsea drew 2/10.
A price of 3.75 implies around 27%. Brentford's record says the draw is their most common result; Chelsea's says it is their least. One side's record is doing all the work.

🧑‍⚖️ THE REFEREE: ANDY MADLEY
Last 12 months, 27 matches with full stats:
• 23.0 fouls per game (Premier League average 21.8)
• 3.78 yellows per game (Premier League average 4.00)
• 0.22 reds per game
Last 10 yellow counts: 7, 3, 3, 1, 8, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3
He calls more fouls than the average referee and books fewer of them. A fouls official rather than a cards one, which matters for the fouls-committed lines below.
His foul counts ran from 10 to 34 across his last ten, so the average hides a wide spread.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.727 Bet365
10+ corners appeared in:
• 7/10 Brentford matches
• 5/10 Chelsea matches
Last five totals:
Brentford: 3, 7, 11, 10, 16
Chelsea: 14, 8, 11, 10, 8
Over 10.5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet — 11+ in 6/10 Brentford matches and 4/10 Chelsea.
Brentford's longer record supports the line; the 3 and 7 at the front of their last five are the caution.

🚩 BRENTFORD TEAM CORNERS
Brentford 5+ corners @ 1.65 William Hill
Last 10, newest first: 1, 4, 6, 7, 2, 9, 2, 2, 8, 9
That's 5/10 and 2/5.
The opposition check: Chelsea allowed opponents 5+ corners in 6/10.
A coin-flip record at a price that implies about 61%. Chelsea's concession record is the stronger half of the case.

🎯 PALMER — TOTAL SHOTS
3+ shots @ 1.65 William Hill
• 9/10 recorded appearances
• 5/5 most recently
• Last five: 3, 3, 4, 5, 3
Ten starts from ten, 83+ minutes in each of the last five.
The strongest record on the page, at a price with room left in it.

4+ shots @ 2.40 William Hill — 5/10 and 2/5. Same player, harder line.

🎯 PALMER — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 1.35 William Hill
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 0, 2, 1, 2, 2
This and his shots market are two views of the same player, not independent evidence for an accumulator.

🎯 ROGERS — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.286 Bet365
• 9/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 3, 3, 3, 1
Ten starts from ten.

🎯 IGOR THIAGO — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.286 Bet365
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 5, 2, 2
Ten starts, 83+ minutes in each of the last five.

🎯 SCHADE — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.533 Bet365
• 6/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 0, 3, 5, 4
88+ minutes in each of the last five.
1+ shot on target @ 1.615 Bet365 — 5/10, but 4/5 recently.

JOÃO PEDRO — FOULS WON
2+ fouls won @ 1.667 Bet365
• 7/10 recorded appearances
• 3/5 most recently
• Last five: 1, 6, 4, 1, 2
Ten starts from ten, 90 minutes in each of the last five.
1+ @ 1.20 Paddy Power — 9/10 and 5/5.
This is fouls won, not committed.

JENSEN — FOULS WON
1+ foul won @ 1.727 Sky Bet
• 8/10 and 3/5
• Last five: 0, 2, 1, 0, 1
Ten starts from ten. The best price attached to an 8/10 record anywhere in this section.

JANELT — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.286 Bet365
• 9/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 1, 3, 1, 4, 0
Ninety minutes in each of the last five.
2+ fouls @ 2.25 Bet365 — 5/10 and 2/5.
With Madley calling more fouls than average, these are the lines his record touches most directly.

CAICEDO — FOULS COMMITTED
1+ foul @ 1.20 Paddy Power
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 0, 2, 1, 5, 3
The 0 was his most recent game, a 14-minute appearance. In the four full games before it he committed 11.
A 14-minute outing last time is also a reason to check he starts.

🛡️ COLWILL — TACKLES
1+ tackle won @ 1.30 Sky Bet
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 0, 1, 2, 1, 1
Nine starts from ten.

🔎 STRONG HIT RATES CAN STILL COME AT SHORT PRICES
Callum Wilson had 1+ shot in 6/10, priced at 1.063 — from one start in ten, and 4, 2 and 7 minutes in his three most recent games.
Estêvão had 1+ shot in 7/10 at 1.05, on last-five minutes of 4, 9, 7, 16 and 67.
Janelt won 1+ tackle in 5/5 recently but 6/10 overall, and the price is 1.083.
Palmer's 1+ shot is 9/10 at 1.03. The record is real; the price leaves nothing.
A hit rate built on cameo minutes is not the same as one built on starts, and a perfect record is not by itself a reason to take a price.

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[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

Fair point. That’s why I’ve included the prices alongside the records. 9/10 at 1.65 and 9/10 at 1.286 obviously aren’t the same thing. The last 10 is there to show recent history, not to say something that hit 9/10 has a 90% chance of landing. Price, minutes, starts and the wider context all matter.

[Per90 | Football Betting Data @Per90HQ]

LIVERPOOL v TOTTENHAM: THE FULL RESEARCH PACK 🔴⚪

🏆 EFL Cup
📍 Anfield | Tonight, 20:00 UK

Goals, corners, player props and the evidence behind the prices 👇

📊 THE TEAM PICTURE
Last 10 recorded Premier League matches:
🔴 Liverpool: 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats
⚪ Tottenham: 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats
Liverpool scored in 9/10.
Spurs scored in 6/10, but have failed to score in their latest four league matches.
Both sides come into tonight after 0–0 draws on Saturday.

⚽ GOALS: THE RECORDS DISAGREE
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 Bet365
Three or more goals appeared in:
• 6/10 Liverpool league matches
• 4/10 Tottenham league matches
Last five match goal totals:
Liverpool: 0, 2, 4, 4, 2
Tottenham: 0, 0, 2, 3, 1

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 Bet365
That landed in:
• 5/10 Liverpool matches
• 9/10 Tottenham matches, including 5/5 most recently
The Spurs record supports the under much more strongly. Liverpool’s record is mixed, and neither sample tells us how tonight’s rotated teams will perform.

⚽ BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
YES @ 1.444 Bet365
NO @ 2.875 Paddy Power
BTTS occurred in:
• 8/10 Liverpool matches
• 4/10 Tottenham matches
Liverpool’s longer record leans towards goals at both ends. Tottenham’s four consecutive league blanks provide a clear counterpoint.
That’s worth knowing before treating BTTS as an automatic selection.

🚩 TOTTENHAM TEAM CORNERS
Spurs 5+ corners @ 2.15 Paddy Power
Their last 10 corner counts, newest first:
5, 10, 9, 3, 7, 4, 14, 5, 5, 7
That’s 8/10 clearing the line and 4/5 most recently.
The lower line:
Spurs 4+ corners @ 1.571 Sky Bet — hit in 9/10.
The opposition check: Liverpool allowed opponents 5+ corners in only 3/10 league matches.
Spurs’ corner production looks strong; Liverpool’s concession record makes it less straightforward.

🚩 TOTAL MATCH CORNERS
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.727 Sky Bet
10+ corners appeared in:
• 9/10 Tottenham matches
• 4/10 Liverpool matches
Last five totals:
Tottenham: 11, 12, 16, 10, 14
Liverpool: 13, 7, 8, 8, 16
Spurs have had 5/5 recent matches with double-figure corners. Liverpool have had 2/5.
Again, one side’s record is doing much more of the supporting work.

🎯 SZOBOSZLAI — SHOTS ON TARGET
1+ shot on target @ 1.727 Paddy Power
• 8/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 1, 1, 3, 0, 1
He played 90 minutes in each of those 10 appearances.
A strong recorded sample, but confirm he starts tonight—past minutes don’t guarantee cup minutes.

🎯 SZOBOSZLAI — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.50 Sky Bet
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 2, 1, 3, 3, 3
This and his shots-on-target market are alternative angles on the same player, not independent evidence for an accumulator.

🎯 PEDRO PORRO — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 2.20 Sky Bet
• 7/10 recorded appearances
• 4/5 most recently
• Last five: 2, 4, 2, 0, 2
His latest recorded appearance in this sample is 5 September. Check availability and the confirmed XI rather than assuming he starts.

🎯 FLORIAN WIRTZ — TOTAL SHOTS
2+ shots @ 1.533 Bet365
• 7/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 3, 0, 2, 2, 3
The zero came in a 90-minute appearance, so it wasn’t simply a late cameo. A useful reminder that even regular minutes don’t guarantee a prop lands.

🟨 PORRO — FOULS WON
1+ foul WON @ 1.50 Paddy Power
• 8/10 and 4/5
• Last five: 1, 2, 1, 1, 0
A separate market to his shots. This is fouls won, not committed.

🔎 STRONG HIT RATES CAN STILL COME AT SHORT PRICES
Szoboszlai committed 1+ foul in 10/10 recorded appearances, but the available price is 1.364 Paddy Power.
Isak took 2+ shots in 5/5 most recently, but only 5/10 over the longer sample. His current price is 1.286 Bet365.
A perfect recent run isn’t enough by itself to make a price attractive.

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