Owl

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@sa21ad_ Yup, that’s why it’s important to count them.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@sa21ad_ Nearly all warrants outstanding are pre-funded and at $1.419 purchase price. These are from the recent financing and in positive OR negative outcome, they will be exercised.

There are ~3.5M additional warrants (~1M pre-funded) from long back with strikes starting at $32.85.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@sa21ad_ Yes, fully diluted.

Implies a $349M market cap at current price of $4.00 per share.

About what it should be trading at pre-data and full enrollment from P3 CN. And actually what they should have been able to raise capital at instead of $15M. But such is life.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo “Following the closing, the fully-diluted shares outstanding will be approximately 87.2 million.”

https://t.co/Q77Q60nTcT

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

Interesting fundraising approach by $XFOR 🤦‍♂️

https://t.co/BxcJ6Wwf6B

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo @AlphaReddyB @shitcoSavant @ualwaysBeHonest @X4Pharma Oh no, it’s much worse than that. 🤦‍♂️

This was a massive miss (not beat) for $XFOR. Was only $0.9M rev from WHIM for the Q, down from $1.4M last Q. Rest of rev is non-reoccurring from Norgine and should be backed out. The $3.5M comment is total WHIM rev since approval last year.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@shitcoSavant @ilzizzo @AlphaReddyB @ualwaysBeHonest @X4Pharma For sure and thank you for calling it out.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@shitcoSavant @ilzizzo @AlphaReddyB @ualwaysBeHonest @X4Pharma Also to be clear, I’m happy to be corrected if wrong on something or if I oversimplified.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@shitcoSavant @ilzizzo @AlphaReddyB @ualwaysBeHonest @X4Pharma Which part? Please correct anything that is wrong.

My source is from SEC regulations and working with them for many years.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo @AlphaReddyB @ualwaysBeHonest @shitcoSavant @X4Pharma Correct. Same as having an E*Trade or Robinhood account, the institution holds your shares in their name (they technically own, you have a right to it). For reporting, this all gets aggregated. Hard to tell prop trading vs retail, but based on these position sizes, likely retail.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@AlphaReddyB @ilzizzo @ualwaysBeHonest @shitcoSavant @X4Pharma FYI those 13F reports are not increases in Feb 2025. They reported in Feb their change in ownership between 9/30/2024 - 12/31/2024.

JPM up
DB up
Vanguard down
Barclays down
State Street up
Wells up

All small amounts and likely retail investors with accounts at these banks

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo @HPInvestor @blackdog_711 @Hilaly_world @MozoTrucho We wouldn’t see this yet if happening.

Insiders ( $XFOR execs and 10%+ owners) required to disclose transactions within 2 biz days. However they can’t buy due to black out dates before earnings.

5% - 10% owners report between 10-45 days.

<5% report on 13F 45 days after quarter

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo @HPInvestor @blackdog_711 @Hilaly_world @MozoTrucho Got it, so those are just changes in position value, not changes in position size by them selling. Also same info as whale wisdom. Mostly 13Fs reported over last few days with info as of 3/31

Vontobel only one who sold and not big position.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo @HPInvestor @blackdog_711 @Hilaly_world @MozoTrucho Where are you getting this info? Institutions don’t generally provide such real time info for adding/exiting positions.

Most of these you mentioned recently made 13F updates in last few days (info as of 3/31) with little to no changes in their position.

https://t.co/OaLW9Gv1l7

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo @AlphaReddyB @X4Pharma Yup, all price related things change at 30:1 ratio. RS only changes price not valuation nor fundamentals. So PT will be 30x higher assuming no other changes from the analyst’s last report. That said, they may take this opportunity to revise their model and thus PT after earnings.

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@AlphaReddyB Where are you getting the cash and debt numbers? They seem off, even if adjusted from 12/31/2024 for estimates of Q1 activities.

And due to the pre-funded warrants, better to use diluted shares outstanding (201M) or fully diluted (219M).

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo Also if helpful for anyone on how to track selling for tax purposes:

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ShadowLake21 Posting response in a longer thread 🧵

[Owl @PerceptiveOwl]

@ilzizzo Personally, I like going to the SEC filings and I keep a spreadsheet for their vesting (at least the CEO) so know when things are coming up.

Relevant CCO filings:

Bonus and sale:

https://t.co/YhVOqjPx33

https://t.co/nfZVPAlddE

Purchases and award:

https://t.co/sugjzOeO2M