Srinivas Peri

Seeing Beyond Narratives | Through the Lens of History |

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@onechancefreedm Great write up and view point as always

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@michaelxpettis Michael, the book is a decade old. Nevertheless an excellent one on those weeks at Bretton Woods.

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@Anand_shah07 Mount Stupid is over crowded right now 😂

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

Anand Bhai, I had actually said this before. Everybody and their neighbours dog has become an expert analyst on Geopolitics and these are the people who till February thought Hormuz was an Arabian Dish and Bosphorus was an element in the periodic table.

I studied international affairs and Geopolitics for 4 years and have been a student of History for more than three decades. Only thing we know is, we can't predict anything. Some of the analysis and mind numbing predictions, conclusions and so called analysis is disgusting.

Bull shit wrapped in a tin foil and sold as precious metal

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

As Hormuz, Venezuela and Russia have driven home the point, our modern global economy is a slave of the “Global Hydrocarbon Flows”. History of the last 150 years has in many ways been the “History of Oil” and those who controlled the Politics of “Oil Flows”, controlled the Power and Profits. What we are witnessing today is nothing new and the first episode of this control for flows and profits played out a 150 years ago In Baku, the neglected corner of the Czarist Russian empire. The Russian’s, the British, Nobel’s and Rothschild’s jostled to control the extraction and flow of this liquid gold.

This is the part one of this series and the second part which drops next week will look at the evolution of the Middle Eastern oil industry and the ascent of Seven Sisters through the lend of “Power, Profits and Politics”.

https://t.co/X9zv3kLnWZ

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

Anas, Unfortunately it has been the case for this whole Iran and Hormuz crisis. While there are many sane voices, the sheer amount of crap being peddled is depressing. Everybody and their neighbours dog has become Geopolitical experts.... And many of them till February thought Hormuz was a Arabian Dish and Bosphorus was an element in the periodic table

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

It doesn’t matter till it matters. Marine Insurance was an arcane topic that no one wanted to talk about and then Hormuz crisis changed all that. Sea lanes are the life blood of global trade, carrying 80% of it by volume and 70% by value and marine insurance is the backbone. Take it away and trade collapses and we are realizing the hard way. The Hormuz crisis is more a marine insurance crisis than anything else. Companies like Lloyd’s of London had ensured smooth functioning of maritime trade for over three centuries and some form of insurance has been the norm for sea voyages for over two millennia.

https://t.co/C6smoiXwQe

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@EdConwaySky I look forward to it Ed and add it to the other two 😊 Is it a global launch and will it be available in India simultaneously?

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@Anand_shah07 You nailed it Anand.

I wrote this last year 😊

https://t.co/WrHqswa3Fm

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

History might not repeat, but it definitely rhymes. Almost two hundred years have passed since, but the similarities are striking with our current times and there are lessons for today’s investors. In the first half of nineteenth century, at the height of industrial revolution and during the “Railway Age”, what came to be known as “The Great Railway Mania” was the first technology driven boom and bust. It was world’s first true “Technological Disruption” and a “Communication Revolution”, that drastically changed the society and economy for ever. It was also the first incarnation of “Democratic Speculation”, with media and markets fuelling a frenzy for railway stocks. People like George Hudson, with their larger-than-life image made huge fortunes, but fell from grace and lost everything. It was an episode that played out against a backdrop of radical disruption, entrepreneurial spirit, economic and political tailwinds and “Greed and Fear”.

https://t.co/q4DKeMaBpZ

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@chigrl Makes a lot of sense for India. Instead of depending on Uranium supplies from others, eventually use ample domestic Thorium reserves. A step in the right direction

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

Great thread, thanks. My read is, a lot of "analysis" is opinions driven by lines, dislikes and ideology.

There was a particularly interesting thread by @Brad_Setser about the point you make, Petrodollars drying up after 2015. Very data driven and pretty insightful

https://t.co/gYaGICLARS

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Petrodollars! Nothing produces more heated discussion and, in my experience, less insight. Myths trump facts, because the actual data is a bit obscure --

But here is the most important thing to know. Before the Hormuz crisis, the flow of petrodollars had more or less dried up

1/many

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

Timeless Wisdom? As I am finishing up a couple of articles on past “Financial Manias and Panics”, I couldn't help but revisit this article, I wrote two and a half years ago. Four hundred years and investor behaviour has been the only constant. Are we seeing this play out in the Private Credit market? Time will tell

https://t.co/peplBty3MO

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

There are multiple wars going on. As the Iran war rages on, equally destructive are the wars of narratives, opinion, and ideology. While there are some sane analysts who are focussing on what is known and knowable, majority of the noise is around grand theories, predictions and strategies, which frankly are unknowable. As the adage goes, the first victim of these wars is truth. As investors, it is important for us to cut out the noise and understand, what we know and what is in our control. As Richard Zeckhauser classifies it, we need to distinguish between, known, unknown and unknowable. Future is inherently uncertain and unpredictable and the best we can do as investors is focus on what is in our control.

https://t.co/8ev0ObMxac

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@Anand_shah07 Gues room hai kya? Asking for a friend 😂

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

Our human minds are wired for stories. Nothing influences us more than a good story and narratives drive what we beleive in. I call this the “Narrative ABC”. I have written a fair bit about financial history, and the more I see, the more I read, the more it becomes obvious - Narratives and their impact on our emotions and outlook drives our actions and outcomes. Over the next few weeks, I will be diving deeper into this, throwing more light through the “Lens of History”.

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@onechancefreedm Nailed it my friend .... History might not repeat, but it sure rhymes like hell

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

Anoop, you probably were not old enough. We followed the first gulf war mostly through newspapers in the morning and I was nineteen. When the war started, we would religiously watch the 9 pm news. It was the first time there was live coverage and images, Peter Arnett of CNN .... How I wish we went back there 😂 Get rid of all this noise and Cacophony

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

@CoffeeandaMike Keep doing the good work Mike. Unfortunately, only shit posting and sensationalist engagement farming get you followers on SM. But there are lots of people who appreciate and genuinely like your work my friend

[Srinivas Peri @Peri_ScopeX]

As Tim Marshall pointed out, we are all “Prisoners of Geography”. From Peloponnesian war to the future geopolitics of the Arctic, geography imposes limitation and dictates the rhythms of history. Russia is a country “Forged in War”, not because they love to fight, but because geography, with no defensible borders and exposed to invasions, defined the logic of their actions. Everyone today wants to talk about geopolitics, geoeconomics and geostrategy. I am just stepping back and highlighting the importance of “The Geo” in all those, “Geography”, which is the fundamental building block for all of them. You cannot make sense of them, without a deep understanding of geography, be it the lines on the map or what lies underneath.

https://t.co/bZRujoMjSk