Perry @Perry40188103 - Twitter Profile

6 months ago

$ASTS Offering News - This Dip Will Get Eaten Up Quickly The market is selling off $ASTS on the convertible note offering news, and it's completely missing the point. Here's what actually happened: $ASTS announced a $1.0 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2036, with an option for an additional $150M (up to $1.15B total). At the same time, they're repurchasing up to $300M of existing convertible notes (the 4.25% and 2.375% notes due 2032) using proceeds from registered direct stock offerings. Why The Market Is Overreacting: Retail sees "dilution" and "convertible notes" and panics. But this is actually a MASSIVE refinancing win that extends the runway and de-risks the constellation buildout. Here's What This Actually Means: 1. They're Extending Maturity by 10 Years:Old notes: Due 2032 (6 years out) New notes: Due 2036 (10 years out) This pushes out $300M of debt obligations by 4+ years, giving $ASTS way more breathing room to scale revenue before having to worry about repayment. 2. They're Raising $1B+ to Fully Fund the Constellation: $ASTS just confirmed they're on track to launch 45-60 satellites by end of 2026 with launches every 1-2 months. BlueBird 7 launches late February on Blue Origin's New Glenn. New Glenn can carry up to 8 BlueBird satellites per launch (vs. Falcon 9's 3-4). This $1B+ raise gives them the capital to execute the full constellation buildout WITHOUT needing to come back to markets in a year. 3. BlueBird 6 Successfully Unfolded Yesterday: On February 10th, $ASTS announced the successful unfolding of BlueBird 6—the largest commercial communications array antenna ever deployed in Low Earth Orbit at ~2,400 square feet. Peak data speeds: 120 MbpsBandwidth capacity: 10x BlueBird 1-5 series This is validation that the Block 2 satellites WORK. Now they're raising capital to scale production. 4. Defense Contracts Are Scaling: Missile Defense Agency SHIELD program (prime IDIQ position) $43M Space Development Agency award Government revenue is starting to ramp alongside commercial partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, Google. The Thesis Is Still 100% Intact: Revenue TAM: $3-4B by 2030 from satellite-to-cell connectivity Partnerships: 50+ mobile network operators with 3 billion combined subscribers Manufacturing: 95% vertically integrated, 500,000 sq ft of facilities, 1,800 employees Launch Cadence: 45-60 satellites by end of 2026 What Changed Today? Nothing. The constellation buildout is still on track. BlueBird 6 successfully unfolded. BlueBird 7 launches in late February. Defense contracts are scaling. The only difference is $ASTS just secured $1B+ in capital to FULLY FUND the constellation without needing to come back to markets. Why This Dip Gets Eaten Up Quickly: Convertible notes due 2036 means $ASTS doesn't have to worry about repaying debt until they're generating massive commercial revenue. By 2030, if the thesis plays out, they'll be doing $3-4B in annual revenue with global satellite-to-cell coverage. The market is selling because "dilution scary." But this is de-risking execution. They just eliminated the #1 bear case: "Can they afford to finish the constellation?" Answer: Yes. They just raised $1B+ to do exactly that. Smart money knows this. Once retail panic subsides (24-48 hours), institutional buyers will step in. A fully funded constellation buildout with 45-60 satellites launching in 2026 is exactly what long-term holders wanted to see. The Math: If $ASTS hits $3-4B revenue by 2030 (their stated TAM) at telecom-like margins (40-50%), that's $1.2-2.0B in gross profit annually. Convertible notes due 2036 aren't a problem when you're generating $1B+ in annual gross profit by 2030. $ASTS at current levels with a fully funded constellation buildout, 45-60 satellites launching in 2026, and defense contracts scaling is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in the market. This isn't dilution destroying value. This is capital securing the execution of a $3-4B revenue TAM. The dip gets bought. The thesis remains intact. Hold with conviction.

CKCapitalxx's tweet photo. $ASTS Offering News - This Dip Will Get Eaten Up Quickly

The market is selling off $ASTS on the convertible note offering news, and it's completely missing the point.

Here's what actually happened:
$ASTS announced a $1.0 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2036, with an option for an additional $150M (up to $1.15B total).

At the same time, they're repurchasing up to $300M of existing convertible notes (the 4.25% and 2.375% notes due 2032) using proceeds from registered direct stock offerings.

Why The Market Is Overreacting:
Retail sees "dilution" and "convertible notes" and panics. But this is actually a MASSIVE refinancing win that extends the runway and de-risks the constellation buildout.

Here's What This Actually Means:
1. They're Extending Maturity by 10 Years:Old notes: Due 2032 (6 years out) New notes: Due 2036 (10 years out)
This pushes out $300M of debt obligations by 4+ years, giving $ASTS way more breathing room to scale revenue before having to worry about repayment.

2. They're Raising $1B+ to Fully Fund the Constellation:
$ASTS just confirmed they're on track to launch 45-60 satellites by end of 2026 with launches every 1-2 months.
BlueBird 7 launches late February on Blue Origin's New Glenn. New Glenn can carry up to 8 BlueBird satellites per launch (vs. Falcon 9's 3-4).
This $1B+ raise gives them the capital to execute the full constellation buildout WITHOUT needing to come back to markets in a year.

3. BlueBird 6 Successfully Unfolded Yesterday:
On February 10th, $ASTS announced the successful unfolding of BlueBird 6—the largest commercial communications array antenna ever deployed in Low Earth Orbit at ~2,400 square feet.
Peak data speeds: 120 MbpsBandwidth capacity: 10x BlueBird 1-5 series
This is validation that the Block 2 satellites WORK. Now they're raising capital to scale production.

4. Defense Contracts Are Scaling:
Missile Defense Agency SHIELD program (prime IDIQ position)
$43M Space Development Agency award
Government revenue is starting to ramp alongside commercial partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, Google.

The Thesis Is Still 100% Intact:
Revenue TAM: $3-4B by 2030 from satellite-to-cell connectivity Partnerships: 50+ mobile network operators with 3 billion combined subscribers Manufacturing: 95% vertically integrated, 500,000 sq ft of facilities, 1,800 employees Launch Cadence: 45-60 satellites by end of 2026

What Changed Today? Nothing.
The constellation buildout is still on track. BlueBird 6 successfully unfolded. BlueBird 7 launches in late February. Defense contracts are scaling.

The only difference is $ASTS just secured $1B+ in capital to FULLY FUND the constellation without needing to come back to markets.

Why This Dip Gets Eaten Up Quickly:
Convertible notes due 2036 means $ASTS doesn't have to worry about repaying debt until they're generating massive commercial revenue. By 2030, if the thesis plays out, they'll be doing $3-4B in annual revenue with global satellite-to-cell coverage.

The market is selling because "dilution scary." But this is de-risking execution. They just eliminated the #1 bear case: "Can they afford to finish the constellation?"

Answer: Yes. They just raised $1B+ to do exactly that.
Smart money knows this. Once retail panic subsides (24-48 hours), institutional buyers will step in. A fully funded constellation buildout with 45-60 satellites launching in 2026 is exactly what long-term holders wanted to see.

The Math:
If $ASTS hits $3-4B revenue by 2030 (their stated TAM) at telecom-like margins (40-50%), that's $1.2-2.0B in gross profit annually.

Convertible notes due 2036 aren't a problem when you're generating $1B+ in annual gross profit by 2030.
$ASTS at current levels with a fully funded constellation buildout, 45-60 satellites launching in 2026, and defense contracts scaling is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in the market.

This isn't dilution destroying value. This is capital securing the execution of a $3-4B revenue TAM.

The dip gets bought. The thesis remains intact.

Hold with conviction.

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Perry

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