I’ve listened to @allin_pod since Ep 1. The only time @DavidSacks broke from Trump was Jan 6. If he’s jumping ship now—even contradicting admin lines to say "Israel will be destroyed" and calling out the news blockade—it’s the ultimate signal.
He clearly thinks the political ship is sinking and he’d rather swim than go down with the propaganda. 📉
I don't blame him for ignoring all the stupidity and chaos of the administration. Who would have thought @realDonaldTrump is that stupid?
#AllInPodcast #IranWar #Geopolitics #Trump #Israel
BANNON: We can't have two different objectives. Israel is not an equal partner; they're a protectorate. Let me be blunt. They don't get their own objectives. They can have kind of what they want to do, but it's got to fit into our objectives. Or it doesn't get done.
This war took a very different path starting Saturday night. Now you're fighting a Persian nationalist movement.
فکر کن ترامپ همین امشب بیاد بگه: «من ریدم دهن رضا پهلوی.» 💩
فردا صبح تو منوتو و اینترنشنال:
«کارشناس: ببینید، این یک حرکت نمادین (Symbolic) بود. در واقع ترامپ با این کار خواست بگه دهان پادشاه باید با طلای قهوهایِ مار-آ-لاگو پر بشه تا جلوی نفوذ مجتبی و چین گرفته بشه! این یعنی حمایت کامل!» 🤡🤴
#Pahlavi #Trump #تحلیل_آبدوغخیاری
Laying down some predictions for the rest of the Iran war…
1. TACO is an investable strategy. Trump is going to soon declare victory after some modest achievement (“we knocked out their nuclear capabilities”). Every day the Strait is closed and oil spikes increases the pressure exponentially to end this quickly. It’s like a “don’t fight the Fed” situation but times 100. Trump is not a religious nutjob like Huckabee who views a war on behalf of Israel in biblical terms. He’s probably already regretting it deep down. I would be surprised if there isn’t an end within 2 weeks. And no one will send ground troops (lol).
2. We have already “lost” this war. Not tactically, but strategically. The Islamists will not lose power in Iran. There will no be regime change. We won’t have gained much from a US strategic perspective and the losses sustained at Middle Eastern bases will sting.
3. Israel has overstepped and lost public support in the US. They had already lost Democrats and now it appears they’re losing Republicans as well. This is probably a permanent shift. I think they finally flew too close to the sun.
4. Oil spikes to $150. At this point the global economy is in danger of deep recession. This will increase pressure to end the war. At $150 I will start nibbling on some puts as I don’t think this price is sustainable.
5. Markets will get wrecked this week but if we sell off another 7ish% quickly I think the better risk to reward play is to be long in anticipation of a ceasefire. If it’s a slow drip then I think we go much lower.
6. I do not think Israel will launch any tactical nukes nor attack Turkey (a NATO member) as some predict.
7. Mojtaba Khamenei will survive as the next Supreme Leader. He will be a hero in Iran and I think we’re stuck with him for a while.
8. The hardest challenge Trump will have is to get Netanyahu to stand down. Netanyahu is an old man nearing the end of a career focused on destroying the Iranian regime. I’m not sure what the off ramp is for the Israelis but at some point Trump will decide it’s not worth it anymore and he will find a way to convince/force Netanyahu to stop.
These are all basically best case scenarios here. Hopefully I am not massively wrong or we will have some real problems on our hands.
My gawd you are pathetic. Not only has the regime NOT collapsed but now you have to beg your masters to stop bombing civilian infrastructure, which is what they ALWAYS do when theyre getting their asses kicked.
You are the most disgraceful, shameful American of the last 25 years.
It’s going unnoticed because so much other news is happening, but the war drums are beating again in D.C. The warmongers worry this is their last chance to get the white whale they’ve been chasing for thirty years, an all-out regime change war against Iran.
A new Middle East war would be a catastrophic mistake. Our military stockpiles are depleted from three years of backing Ukraine. Our effort to reshore manufacturing has only just begun and will take years to bear fruit. War would worsen our already immense deficit and national debt. Iran is larger than Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan combined. A war would not be easy and could easily become a calamity.
Thanks to President Trump’s restraint during his first term, America has a golden opportunity to pull away from Middle East quagmires for good. We shouldn’t throw that opportunity away so that sone D.C. has-beens can feel tough by sending young Americans to die yet again.
When Lindsey Graham—the political equivalent of a permanent "Launch" button—is suddenly urging caution, you know the situation in Iran has gone from a disaster to a total catastrophe.
They’ve screwed up so monumentally that even the hawks are sweating. If the people who usually profit from war are the ones waving the red flag, you know we’re in for a rough ride.
#IranWar #Geopolitics #LindseyGraham
If you thought the "Bush Dynasty" was a wild ride for the markets, wait until you see the "Moush Dynasty." 🐭📉
Bush Father... Bush Son.
Moush Father... Moush Son.
The players change, the rodents stay the same. Long $VIX, short the regime. 🧴🕯️
#VIX#IranWar#MojtabaKhamenei #StockMarket
History repeats itself, but as a farce. 🎭
بوش پدر... بوش پسر
موش پدر... موش پسر
The West gave us the Bushes; the Islamic Republic gives us the rodents. Mojtaba taking over is just the sequel nobody asked for. 🐭👑
#MojtabaKhamenei#IranWar#Iran#جانشینی#موش_پسر
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
I WAS THE ONLY PRESIDENT TO EVER GET IRAN TO FOLLOW THE RULES. SAD! THEY KILLED THE OLD KHAMENEI—VERY GONE—BUT NOW THE SON, MOJTABA, IS IN CHARGE. NOT GOOD! I DEALT WITH THE FATHER, VERY TOUGH MAN, BUT THE SON... SOME PEOPLE SAY HE’S EVEN BETTER. HE CAME TO POWER THANKS TO THE DEEP STATE TRYING TO STOP ME. I GUESS WE’LL HAVE TO HAVE THE TALK ALL OVER AGAIN! MAGA! 🇺🇸
Mojtaba takes the throne. The "Supreme" title stays in the family, and the IRGC stays in the driver’s seat. 📉🇮🇷
If you’re watching the Middle East go up in flames next week, remember: VIX is all you need. Financially... and lubricantly. 🧴🕯️
#VIX#IranWar#MojtabaKhamenei #FinTwit #BlackSwan #IRGC #vicks