Pes Filipes

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@ChrisO_wiki This reminds me of the magic of AA guns at air shows. Loved them as a kid and still do...

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@skrblik I am not gay, but pytlík mandarinek is pytlík mandarinek :D

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@weblog20 @Jason EV porta potty, SF je vždycky napřed :D

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@EpsilonTheory Don’t worry Ben, Capt. is sane, and he’s just laughing at us. His first single from the new album is pure silliness :) https://t.co/56dOlVSvU3

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@KaterinaStojan Pouze potvrzení, že odvádíte dobrou práci 👍

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@SemSuchar

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@RealSimpleAriel How dare you? The Dow was up $50,000, and the sky is sometimes white and black at night!

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@Vera_Icona_23 @jam_croissant

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@NonDiaCritical @OtaVazina @CT24zive Video bez "propagandy" je výsek prvních pár vteřin, zde to je celé https://t.co/xpQP8cX303

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@BearOnWindows95 Any of those 2 mentioned options would be great 👍

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@zdenekkubik72

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@zdenekkubik72

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@wiley_inc @PolymarketIntel And Epstein is smilling from heaven...

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@RpsAgainstTrump This sends the „Ukraine is the enemy of this country“ vibes...

[Curbstone Research @lesse_jivermore]

No chart today, just an observation.

Throughout the history of the stock market there have been several of what I refer to as “great bull markets.” They are bull markets that provide much greater opportunities to trade compared to a standard market uptrend (if there is such a thing), both in terms of magnitude and number, and are characterized by rampant speculation. Since 1877, I would say there have been about 9 or 10 of them: 1879-1885, 1897-1901, 1915-1919, 1924-1929, 1954-1960, 1963-1969, 1982-1987, 1995-2000, and depending on how you look at it, 2020-2021, and 2023-20?? (the 2020 market would be the shortest of these by far, but could be considered the start of the current bull market if you ignore 2022).

Each subsequent great bull market has had a greater number of stocks in play, and a larger average magnitude of tradeable moves. The seemingly irrational speculation in each market increases quite a lot between each subsequent market as well. For example, I have around 40 stocks that made notable moves in the 1877 bull market, but that number ballooned to at least 300 in the 1924 market. By the time we get to the 1990s, I stopped counting after 700.

Each market lasted about 5 years depending on how you measure it, and they also contained at least one year or so of consolidation or a sell-off in the indexes.

While there were surely stocks in bull markets of the 1800s that made moves on pure speculation, they were nothing compared to the speculation seen in the second half of the 20th century. In the 1960s, any company name that ended with an “onics,” “x,” or sounded techy at all was almost guaranteed to have made a big move. This observation was also noted in John Brooks’, The Go-Go Years-a great read if you haven’t read it yet. In the 90s, anything that added a “.com” to its name or created a website suddenly shot up in price. There are endless examples, and many of us are familiar with the things that went on in the 90s market or the insanity of the 2020 bull run.

There are also certain catalysts that have sparked these great bull markets. I could go into much greater detail for each one, and could write a book on each market individually, but I’ll give a simple summary here.

The 1879 market and the 1897 markets were quite similar in the fact that they both were recoveries from a deep economic depression that were partly catalyzed by increased grain production of record levels which caused huge freight volumes for the railroads. The increased freight activity directly resulted in a large earnings rebound for the railroads, which were the dominant tech stocks of their day. The 1897 market was also helped by the re-election of the pro-business president, William McKinley in November 1900. Although this didn’t spark the market recovery from the prior depression, it did help to send stocks into overdrive midway through the bull market.

The 1915 market was catalyzed by the extreme demand on American business as a result of the first world war and massive investments into the nascent automobile industry.

The great bull market of the 1920s was catalyzed by the recovery from the high inflation and economic recession after the war, the great industrial expansion during the war, the election of pro-business Calvin Coolidge as president, and technological advancements across several industries.

The 1950s market began after the taming of post-war inflation, optimism about America’s new standing in the world, and was jolted higher in 1958 after Sputnik caused alarm in the US about a new space race with the Soviets. This led the government to inject billions of dollars into developing technologies to beat the Soviets. The market also began right after the election of Eisenhower in late 1953.

The 1960s market started after the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis and technological advancements in electronics and computing helped businesses increase productivity.

The 1980s bull market began after Paul Volker was able to bring down inflation from severely elevated levels. The election of Ronald Reagan and his subsequent deregulation and the lowering of interest rates helped to send stocks higher.

The bubble market of the 1990s began after another taming of inflation, the lowering of interest rates, and the proliferation of the internet which created massive speculation on the future of business, plus new technologies allowed for more people to more easily access trading the markets (online brokerages).

I believe that the market we are currently in has nearly every single catalyst that has propelled past great bull markets. I don’t want to be accused of being overly optimistic, but this current environment is quite possibly the greatest environmental setup for a massive bull market that has ever existed.

We have come out of a year-long bear market and elevated inflationary environment, interest rates are coming down, the most pro-stock market president in history has just been elected, massive deregulation is coming, we are in a new cold war with China in a race to develop critical technologies, and we are at the start of a technological revolution that will dwarf anything we have seen in any past market environment including railroads and the internet, and new technologies have made it infinitely easier for more people to access the market (apps like $HOOD that allow anyone with a phone to trade stocks 24/7).

I am confident we are also witnessing the modern day Sputnik moment with the threat of China’s DeepSeek. In October 1957, the Soviets launched the Sputnik satellite which struck fear into the hearts of Americans as they realized they were falling behind the Soviets in the race to create the more advanced technology. The market sold off on this event until the government announced that they would pour billions and billions of dollars into companies that could help them develop more advanced rocket and space technologies. The market then went on a 62% run over the next two years.

Although the current administration has said they will prioritize spending cuts, I would be beyond surprised if we do not see this market slide cause a similar reaction by the government to announce massive investments into developing the most advanced AI possible, especially considering the fact that Trump views the stock market’s success and failure as his own. When that happens, we can be sure that the market will rebound in a spectacular fashion. Trump may even be able to convince Powell to lower rates as a matter of national security in order to quicken the pace of investment.

The CHIPS Act invested $39B in creating new semiconductor fabs in the US. This sounds like a joke considering TSMC’s fab they are building in Arizona has cost over $20B alone. The US government will likely need to invest hundreds of billions of dollars or more into all sorts of AI technologies, not just semiconductors. And as we are seeing from this selloff, semiconductors are probably not the best place to be pouring billions of dollars in order to get the best return and best technological outcomes to compete with China, especially considering China has superior AI that didn’t require super advanced chips and a mega budget to build. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump starts to put pressure on Masa Son and the Saudis to quicken up the timeline of their investments and start putting that money to use ASAP. The US has secured $500B private investment from Softbank, and the Saudis have said they intend to invest $600B. That’s already over $1T of intended investment the US has secured in just a week. I imagine that more is to come now that people are panicking over DeepSeek.

This selloff is actually increasing my confidence that this will be the greatest bull market this country has ever seen. I had thought that DeepSeek could cause a similar Sputnik 2.0 moment in the market and hasten our response to increase the pace of AI development, but for some reason it took over a month for the market to realize the threat. Although this market gap down is painful in the moment, it will no doubt lead to even greater opportunities. The best, and most liquid moves of the 1950s bull market occurred after Sputnik. In fact, the second half of each one of the previously mentioned great bull markets was more spectacular than the first half (the exception being 1915). And just like every other bull market since the 1920s, people including John Kenneth Galbraith believed that the speculative excesses in the market would lead to another 1929 crash and subsequent depression. They said the same thing in the 1960s, the 1980s, the 1990s, and today. Each time the market moved higher.

In 1899, the death of Roswell P. Flower, the most prominent and influential operator in the market at the time, caused a deep selloff of stocks. People thought it was the end of the bull market, but it was only the halfway point.

In 1917, when the US entered WW1, the rally in stocks ended, but they came back between 1918-1919.

In 1926, the market went sideways for a year and it seemed the bull was tamed. The market went on to more than double.

In 1957, Sputnik tanked the market and it seemed the party was over. Stocks rallied over 60% the next two years.

The world appeared to be on the brink of destruction during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The market rose almost 100% in the following four years (although the indexes are very deceiving when it comes to the 1960s as stocks made tremendous moves into 1969).

The Asian Financial Crisis and the Ruble crisis in 1997-1998 made many think the good times were gone for good. The Nasdaq subsequently soared 350% from the bottom of 1998 pullback to the peak in 2000.

Odds are we won’t even remember this pullback in a few weeks or months, the bull will come back with a vengeance, and we could still have another four years left to run higher if history gives us any indication of what’s to come.

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@VojtaRocek

[Pes Filipes @PesFillipes]

@VojtaRocek Tradice se těžko inovujou :D